✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional
A. Roman
(ast. C. Arango)
57'
M. Moreno
(ast. J. Campuzano)
89'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 66% win probability (draw 20%, Bucaramanga 13%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 2–0 Bucaramanga.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
12
9
Shots on target
4
1.14
Actual xG
0.73
4
Saves
6
54%
Possession
46%
6
Corners
4
19
Tackles
11
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
J. Rengifo
19'
E. Cardona
42'
⚽A. Roman
· ast. C. Arango
57'
62'
J. Mosquera
/
K. Londono
E. Bello
/ A. Sarmiento
70'
C. Arango
/ A. Morelos
70'
70'
J. Salazar
/
E. Batalla
70'
G. Charrupi
/
F. Charrupi
E. Cardona
/ M. Moreno
81'
84'
F. Sambueza
M. Uribe
/ F. Marin
87'
J. Rengifo
/ X. Rios
87'
⚽M. Moreno
· ast. J. Campuzano
89'
Pre-match prediction
66.13%
Atletico ←
20.61%
X
13.26%
Bucaramanga
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
66.13%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.37
1.14
-1.23
0.72
0.73
+0.01
Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (1.14 vs 0.73).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
20
D
16
William Tesillo
D
William Tesillo
D
28
Simon Garcia
D
Simon Garcia
D
6
A. Román
1 ⚽
D
A. Román
1 ⚽
D
8
Matheus Uribe
87'
M
Matheus Uribe
87'
M
21
Jorman Campuzano
1 👟
M
Jorman Campuzano
1 👟
M
19
J. Rengifo
87'
M
J. Rengifo
87'
M
10
E. Cardona
81'
M
E. Cardona
81'
M
18
Eduard Bello
70'
M
Eduard Bello
70'
M
17
Cristian Arango
1 👟
70'
F
Cristian Arango
1 👟
70'
F
Bench
9
A. Morelos
20'
F
A. Morelos
20'
F
29
A. Sarmiento
20'
F
A. Sarmiento
20'
F
4
César Haydar
D
César Haydar
D
27
Dairon Asprilla
F
Dairon Asprilla
F
7
Marlos Moreno
1 ⚽
9'
F
Marlos Moreno
1 ⚽
9'
F
33
Samuel Velásquez
M
Samuel Velásquez
M
12
G
8
F. Hinestroza
D
F. Hinestroza
D
3
D
2
D
19
Aldair Gutiérrez
D
Aldair Gutiérrez
D
21
Felix Charrupí
70'
M
Felix Charrupí
70'
M
20
Aldair Zárate
M
Aldair Zárate
M
7
Kevin Londoño
62'
M
Kevin Londoño
62'
M
10
F. Sambueza
M
F. Sambueza
M
15
E. Batalla
70'
M
E. Batalla
70'
M
9
Brandon Caicedo
F
Brandon Caicedo
F
Bench
11
Fredy Salazar
20'
F
Fredy Salazar
20'
F
6
Gustavo Charrupi
20'
F
Gustavo Charrupi
20'
F
14
J. Mosquera
28'
D
4
José García
D
José García
D
28
Leonardo Flores
M
Leonardo Flores
M
Best on the pitch
William Tesillo
D · Atletico
8.50
· 66 pass
A. Román
D · Atletico
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 34 pass
D · Atletico
7.70
1 shots
· 37 pass
G · Atletico
7.50
· 34 pass
Jorman Campuzano
M · Atletico
7.50
1 👟
· 34 pass
F. Sambueza
M · Bucaramanga
7.30
3 shots
· 47 pass
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 34 | 29% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 34% | 2 | — | — | |
| William Tesillo | D | 90 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 66 | 61% | 6 | — | — |
| Simon Garcia | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 56 | 51% | — | — | — |
| A. Román | D | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 34 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Uribe | M | 87 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorman Campuzano | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 34 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Rengifo | M | 87 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 53 | 47% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Cardona | M | 81 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 53 | 47% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Eduard Bello | M | 70 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 17 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Cristian Arango | F | 70 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 3 | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| A. Morelos | F | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Sarmiento | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Marlos Moreno | F | 9 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
Bucaramanga — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | — | — | — | |
| F. Hinestroza | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | — | — | — | |
| Aldair Gutiérrez | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 51 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| Felix Charrupí | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Aldair Zárate | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 46 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| Kevin Londoño | M | 62 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | — | — | — |
| F. Sambueza | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 47 | 38% | 2 | 1 | — |
| E. Batalla | M | 70 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Brandon Caicedo | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Fredy Salazar | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Charrupi | F | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| J. Mosquera | D | 28 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 2–0 Bucaramanga.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga?
The model assigned 66% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 20% to a draw, and 13% to an Bucaramanga win.