✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional
A. Roman
(ast. C. Arango)
57'
M. Moreno
(ast. J. Campuzano)
89'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 66% win probability (draw 20%, Bucaramanga 13%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 2–0 Bucaramanga.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
12
9
Shots on target
4
1.14
Actual xG
0.73
4
Saves
6
54%
Possession
46%
6
Corners
4
19
Tackles
11
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
J. Rengifo
19'
E. Cardona
42'
⚽A. Roman
· ast. C. Arango
57'
62'
J. Mosquera
/
K. Londono
E. Bello
/ A. Sarmiento
70'
C. Arango
/ A. Morelos
70'
70'
J. Salazar
/
E. Batalla
70'
G. Charrupi
/
F. Charrupi
E. Cardona
/ M. Moreno
81'
84'
F. Sambueza
M. Uribe
/ F. Marin
87'
J. Rengifo
/ X. Rios
87'
⚽M. Moreno
· ast. J. Campuzano
89'
Pre-match prediction
66.13%
Atletico ←
20.61%
X
13.26%
Bucaramanga
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
66.13%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.37
1.14
-1.23
0.72
0.73
+0.01
Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (1.14 vs 0.73).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
20
D
16
W. Tesillo
D
W. Tesillo
D
28
S. Garcia
D
S. Garcia
D
6
A. Román
1 ⚽
D
A. Román
1 ⚽
D
8
M. Uribe
87'
M
M. Uribe
87'
M
21
J. Campuzano
1 👟
M
J. Campuzano
1 👟
M
19
Juan Manuel Rengifo
87'
M
Juan Manuel Rengifo
87'
M
10
E. Cardona
81'
M
E. Cardona
81'
M
18
E. Bello
70'
M
E. Bello
70'
M
17
C. Arango
1 👟
70'
F
C. Arango
1 👟
70'
F
Bench
9
A. Morelos
20'
F
A. Morelos
20'
F
29
A. Sarmiento
20'
F
A. Sarmiento
20'
F
4
C. Haydar
D
C. Haydar
D
27
D. Asprilla
F
D. Asprilla
F
7
M. Moreno
1 ⚽
9'
F
M. Moreno
1 ⚽
9'
F
33
Samuel Velásquez
M
Samuel Velásquez
M
12
G
8
F. Hinestroza
D
F. Hinestroza
D
3
D
2
D
19
A. Gutiérrez
D
A. Gutiérrez
D
21
F. Charrupí
70'
M
F. Charrupí
70'
M
20
Aldair Zárate
M
Aldair Zárate
M
7
K. Londoño
62'
M
K. Londoño
62'
M
10
F. Sambueza
M
F. Sambueza
M
15
E. Batalla
70'
M
E. Batalla
70'
M
9
B. Caicedo
F
B. Caicedo
F
Bench
11
F. Salazar
20'
F
F. Salazar
20'
F
6
G. CharrupÃ
20'
F
G. CharrupÃ
20'
F
4
J. García
D
J. García
D
14
J. Mosquera
28'
D
28
L. Flores
M
L. Flores
M
Best on the pitch
W. Tesillo
D · Atletico
8.50
· 66 pass
A. Román
D · Atletico
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 34 pass
D · Atletico
7.70
1 shots
· 37 pass
G · Atletico
7.50
· 34 pass
J. Campuzano
M · Atletico
7.50
1 👟
· 34 pass
F. Sambueza
M · Bucaramanga
7.30
3 shots
· 47 pass
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 34 | 29% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 34% | 2 | — | — | |
| W. Tesillo | D | 90 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 66 | 61% | 6 | — | — |
| S. Garcia | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 56 | 51% | — | — | — |
| A. Román | D | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 34 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Uribe | M | 87 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Campuzano | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 34 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| Juan Manuel Rengifo | M | 87 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 53 | 47% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Cardona | M | 81 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 53 | 47% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Bello | M | 70 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 17 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Arango | F | 70 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 3 | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| A. Morelos | F | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Sarmiento | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| M. Moreno | F | 9 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
Bucaramanga — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | — | — | — | |
| F. Hinestroza | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | — | — | — | |
| A. Gutiérrez | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 51 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Charrupí | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Aldair Zárate | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 46 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Londoño | M | 62 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | — | — | — |
| F. Sambueza | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 47 | 38% | 2 | 1 | — |
| E. Batalla | M | 70 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Caicedo | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Salazar | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| G. Charrupà | F | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| J. Mosquera | D | 28 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 2–0 Bucaramanga.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga?
The model assigned 66% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 20% to a draw, and 13% to an Bucaramanga win.