✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional
A. Roman
(ast. C. Arango)
57'
M. Moreno
(ast. J. Campuzano)
89'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 66% win probability (draw 20%, Bucaramanga 13%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 2–0 Bucaramanga.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
12
9
Shots on target
4
1.14
Actual xG
0.73
4
Saves
6
54%
Possession
46%
6
Corners
4
19
Tackles
11
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
J. Rengifo
19'
E. Cardona
42'
⚽A. Roman
· ast. C. Arango
57'
62'
J. Mosquera
/
K. Londono
E. Bello
/ A. Sarmiento
70'
C. Arango
/ A. Morelos
70'
70'
J. Salazar
/
E. Batalla
70'
G. Charrupi
/
F. Charrupi
E. Cardona
/ M. Moreno
81'
84'
F. Sambueza
M. Uribe
/ F. Marin
87'
J. Rengifo
/ X. Rios
87'
⚽M. Moreno
· ast. J. Campuzano
89'
Pre-match prediction
66.13%
Atletico ←
20.61%
X
13.26%
Bucaramanga
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
66.13%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.37
1.14
-1.23
0.72
0.73
+0.01
Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (1.14 vs 0.73).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
20
D
16
William Tesillo
D
William Tesillo
D
28
Simon Garcia
D
Simon Garcia
D
6
A. Román
1 ⚽
D
A. Román
1 ⚽
D
8
Matheus Uribe
87'
M
Matheus Uribe
87'
M
21
J. Campuzano
1 👟
M
J. Campuzano
1 👟
M
19
J. Rengifo
87'
M
J. Rengifo
87'
M
10
E. Cardona
81'
M
E. Cardona
81'
M
18
E. Bello
70'
M
E. Bello
70'
M
17
Cristian Arango
1 👟
70'
F
Cristian Arango
1 👟
70'
F
Bench
9
A. Morelos
20'
F
A. Morelos
20'
F
29
A. Sarmiento
20'
F
A. Sarmiento
20'
F
4
César Haydar
D
César Haydar
D
27
Dairon Asprilla
F
Dairon Asprilla
F
7
Marlos Moreno
1 ⚽
9'
F
Marlos Moreno
1 ⚽
9'
F
33
Samuel Velásquez
M
Samuel Velásquez
M
12
G
8
F. Hinestroza
D
F. Hinestroza
D
3
D
2
D
19
A. Gutierrez
D
21
F. Charrupi
70'
M
20
Aldair Zárate
M
7
K. Londono
62'
M
10
F. Sambueza
M
F. Sambueza
M
15
E. Batalla
70'
M
9
B. Caicedo
F
Bench
6
G. Charrupi
20'
F
4
J. Garcia
D
14
J. Mosquera
28'
D
11
J. Salazar
20'
F
28
L. Flores
M
Best on the pitch
William Tesillo
D · Atletico
8.50
· 66 pass
A. Román
D · Atletico
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 34 pass
D · Atletico
7.70
1 shots
· 37 pass
G · Atletico
7.50
· 34 pass
J. Campuzano
M · Atletico
7.50
1 👟
· 34 pass
Simon Garcia
D · Atletico
7.30
· 56 pass
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 34 | 29% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 34% | 2 | — | — | |
| William Tesillo | D | 90 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 66 | 61% | 6 | — | — |
| Simon Garcia | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 56 | 51% | — | — | — |
| A. Román | D | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 34 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Uribe | M | 87 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Campuzano | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 34 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Rengifo | M | 87 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 53 | 47% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Cardona | M | 81 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 53 | 47% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Bello | M | 70 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 17 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Cristian Arango | F | 70 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 3 | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| A. Morelos | F | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Sarmiento | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Marlos Moreno | F | 9 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
Bucaramanga — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | — | — | — | |
| F. Hinestroza | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | — | — | — | |
| A. Gutierrez | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 51 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Charrupi | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Aldair Zárate | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 46 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Londono | M | 62 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | — | — | — |
| F. Sambueza | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 47 | 38% | 2 | 1 | — |
| E. Batalla | M | 70 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Caicedo | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Charrupi | F | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| J. Mosquera | D | 28 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Salazar | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 2–0 Bucaramanga.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Bucaramanga?
The model assigned 66% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 20% to a draw, and 13% to an Bucaramanga win.