✗Model wrong — prediction Atletico Nacional, result Draw
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 62% win probability (draw 21%, Cucuta 15%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 0–0 Cucuta.
Match statistics
17
Total shots
3
5
Shots on target
0
1.79
Actual xG
0.16
0
Saves
4
66%
Possession
34%
6
Corners
2
5
Tackles
10
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
22'
O. Albornoz
/
A. Ballesteros
M. Moreno
/ A. Sarmiento
57'
M. Lozano
/ J. Rengifo
57'
M. Uribe
/ J. Campuzano
71'
79'
A. Cano
/
F. Castaneda
79'
J. Agudelo
/
L. Hernandez
E. Bello
/ J. Bauza
80'
88'
S. Tamara
/
L. Berdugo
88'
J. Ceballos
/
K. Londono
90'+5
Omar Albornoz
César Haydar
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
62.68%
Atletico
21.66%
X ←
15.66%
Cucuta
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
21.66%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.47
1.79
-0.68
0.98
0.16
-0.83
Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (1.79 vs 0.16).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
33
Samuel Velásquez
D
Samuel Velásquez
D
4
César Haydar
D
César Haydar
D
3
D
5
D
8
Matheus Uribe
71'
M
Matheus Uribe
71'
M
35
M. Lozano
57'
M
7
Marlos Moreno
57'
M
Marlos Moreno
57'
M
17
Cristian Arango
M
Cristian Arango
M
18
E. Bello
80'
M
E. Bello
80'
M
27
Dairon Asprilla
F
Dairon Asprilla
F
Bench
29
A. Sarmiento
33'
F
A. Sarmiento
33'
F
21
J. Campuzano
19'
M
J. Campuzano
19'
M
19
J. Rengifo
33'
F
J. Rengifo
33'
F
28
Simon Garcia
M
Simon Garcia
M
24
F. Abadia
G
30
B. Montano
D
44
D
3
D. Calcaterra
D
D. Calcaterra
D
4
D
2
A. Ballesteros
22'
D
23
F. Castaneda
79'
M
5
V. Mejía
M
V. Mejía
M
16
K. Londoño
88'
M
K. Londoño
88'
M
7
L. Berdugo
88'
M
L. Berdugo
88'
M
90
Luifer Hernández
79'
F
Luifer Hernández
79'
F
Bench
27
M. Duarte
D
M. Duarte
D
80
Omar Albornoz
68'
D
Omar Albornoz
68'
D
Best on the pitch
César Haydar
D · Atletico
8.50
1 shots
· 112 pass
Matheus Uribe
M · Atletico
8.20
1 shots
· 66 pass
D · Atletico
7.70
· 92 pass
F. Abadia
G · Cucuta
7.70
· 37 pass
F. Castaneda
M · Cucuta
7.30
2 shots
· 26 pass
B. Montano
D · Cucuta
7.30
· 33 pass
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 15% | — | — | — | |
| Samuel Velásquez | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 69 | 63% | 1 | — | — |
| César Haydar | D | 90 | 8.50 | — | — | 1 | 112 | 103% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 92 | 85% | 1 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 54 | 42% | — | — | — | |
| Matheus Uribe | M | 71 | 8.20 | — | — | 1 | 66 | 63% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Lozano | M | 57 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Marlos Moreno | M | 57 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 37 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Arango | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 4 | 31 | 23% | — | — | — |
| E. Bello | M | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Dairon Asprilla | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 5 | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| A. Sarmiento | F | 33 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 11% | — | — | — |
| J. Campuzano | M | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| J. Rengifo | F | 33 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 30% | — | — | — |
Cucuta — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Abadia | G | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 37 | 20% | — | — | — |
| B. Montano | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 23% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| D. Calcaterra | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 24 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 30 | 23% | 2 | — | — | |
| A. Ballesteros | D | 22 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Castaneda | M | 79 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| V. Mejía | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Londoño | M | 88 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 39 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Berdugo | M | 88 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Luifer Hernández | F | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Omar Albornoz | D | 68 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Cucuta?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 0–0 Cucuta.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Cucuta?
The model assigned 62% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 21% to a draw, and 15% to an Cucuta win.