✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional
J. Campuzano
(ast. C. Haydar)
53'
A. Roman
(ast. A. Morelos)
71'
E. Cardona
77'
79'
(ast. J. Nieto)
A. Parra Osorio
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 66% win probability (draw 18%, Deportes Tolima 14%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima. In 3 previous meetings, Atletico Nacional have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Deportes Tolima.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
10
7
Shots on target
3
1.32
Actual xG
0.66
2
Saves
5
43%
Possession
57%
6
Corners
4
21
Tackles
11
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
J. Campuzano
7'
N. Rodriguez
22'
46'
A. Parra Osorio
/
K. Florez
⚽J. Campuzano
· ast. C. Haydar
53'
56'
J. Mosquera
/
C. Trujillo
56'
Y. Osorio
/
E. Lopez
57'
L. Sandoval
N. Rodriguez
/ A. Sarmiento
68'
⚽A. Roman
· ast. A. Morelos
71'
74'
J. Nieto
/
L. Sandoval
J. Campuzano
/ J. Zapata
76'
J. Rengifo
/ E. Cardona
76'
⚽E. Cardona
77'
79'
ast. J. Nieto ·
A. Parra Osorio⚽
80'
E. Valencia
/
J. Gonzalez
A. Roman
/ M. Moreno
86'
A. Morelos
/ K. C. Perez
86'
Pre-match prediction
66.84%
Atletico ←
18.67%
X
14.49%
Deportes
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
66.84%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.21
1.32
-0.89
0.69
0.66
-0.03
Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (1.32 vs 0.66).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
David Ospina
G
David Ospina
G
33
Samuel Velásquez
D
Samuel Velásquez
D
16
William Tesillo
D
William Tesillo
D
4
César Haydar
1 👟
D
César Haydar
1 👟
D
6
Andrés Román
1 ⚽
86'
D
Andrés Román
1 ⚽
86'
D
8
Matheus Uribe
M
Matheus Uribe
M
21
Jorman Campuzano
1 ⚽
76'
M
Jorman Campuzano
1 ⚽
76'
M
13
Nicolás Rodríguez
68'
M
Nicolás Rodríguez
68'
M
19
Juan Manuel Rengifo
76'
M
Juan Manuel Rengifo
76'
M
18
E. Bello
M
E. Bello
M
9
Alfredo Morelos
1 👟
86'
F
Alfredo Morelos
1 👟
86'
F
Bench
14
Andres Marin
D
Andres Marin
D
29
Andrés Sarmiento
22'
F
Andrés Sarmiento
22'
F
10
Edwin Cardona
1 ⚽
14'
M
Edwin Cardona
1 ⚽
14'
M
15
H. Castillo
G
H. Castillo
G
80
Juan Zapata
14'
M
Juan Zapata
14'
M
36
Kevin Pérez
8'
F
Kevin Pérez
8'
F
7
M. Moreno
8'
F
M. Moreno
8'
F
3
Neider Parra
D
Neider Parra
D
31
Xavi Rios
M
Xavi Rios
M
1
Neto Volpi
G
Neto Volpi
G
17
C. Arrieta
D
C. Arrieta
D
6
C. Trujillo
56'
D
C. Trujillo
56'
D
3
Jan Ángulo
D
Jan Ángulo
D
28
Edwar López
56'
D
Edwar López
56'
D
80
Brayan Rovira
M
Brayan Rovira
M
32
S. Guzmán
M
S. Guzmán
M
7
J. González
80'
M
J. González
80'
M
10
J. Torres
M
J. Torres
M
18
K. Flórez
45'
M
K. Flórez
45'
M
9
Luis Sandoval
74'
F
Luis Sandoval
74'
F
Bench
24
Adrián Parra
1 ⚽
45'
F
Adrián Parra
1 ⚽
45'
F
8
Ever Valencia
10'
F
Ever Valencia
10'
F
33
Jherson Mosquera
34'
D
Jherson Mosquera
34'
D
15
Juan Pablo Nieto
1 👟
16'
M
Juan Pablo Nieto
1 👟
16'
M
20
Junior Hernández
D
Junior Hernández
D
22
Luis Marquinez
G
Luis Marquinez
G
29
Neifer Sanchez
F
Neifer Sanchez
F
31
Yoimar Moreno
M
Yoimar Moreno
M
71
Yordan Osorio
34'
D
Yordan Osorio
34'
D
Best on the pitch
Jorman Campuzano
M · Atletico
8.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 26 pass
Adrián Parra
F · Deportes
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 8 pass
Edwin Cardona
M · Atletico
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 4 pass
Alfredo Morelos
F · Atletico
7.60
1 👟
3 shots
· 32 pass
David Ospina
G · Atletico
7.30
· 24 pass
Andrés Román
D · Atletico
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 12 pass
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Ospina | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Velásquez | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | 3 | — | — |
| William Tesillo | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| César Haydar | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 26 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Andrés Román | D | 86 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Uribe | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Jorman Campuzano | M | 76 | 8.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 26 | 22% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Nicolás Rodríguez | M | 68 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 11% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Juan Manuel Rengifo | M | 76 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 20% | 4 | — | — |
| E. Bello | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Alfredo Morelos | F | 86 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 3 | 32 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Andrés Sarmiento | F | 22 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| Edwin Cardona | M | 14 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Juan Zapata | M | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Pérez | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| M. Moreno | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
Deportes Tolima — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neto Volpi | G | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | — | — | — |
| C. Arrieta | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Trujillo | D | 56 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Jan Ángulo | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Edwar López | D | 56 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Brayan Rovira | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 42 | 39% | — | — | — |
| S. Guzmán | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 67 | 64% | — | — | — |
| J. González | M | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Torres | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 47 | 38% | — | — | — |
| K. Flórez | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Luis Sandoval | F | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| Adrián Parra | F | 45 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Ever Valencia | F | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Jherson Mosquera | D | 34 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 12 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Pablo Nieto | M | 16 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 12 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Yordan Osorio | D | 34 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
The model assigned 66% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 18% to a draw, and 14% to an Deportes Tolima win.