✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional
J. Campuzano
(ast. C. Haydar)
53'
A. Roman
(ast. A. Morelos)
71'
E. Cardona
77'
79'
(ast. J. Nieto)
A. Parra Osorio
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 66% win probability (draw 18%, Deportes Tolima 14%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima. In 2 previous meetings, Atletico Nacional have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Deportes Tolima.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
10
7
Shots on target
3
1.32
Actual xG
0.66
2
Saves
5
43%
Possession
57%
6
Corners
4
21
Tackles
11
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
J. Campuzano
7'
N. Rodriguez
22'
46'
A. Parra Osorio
/
K. Florez
⚽J. Campuzano
· ast. C. Haydar
53'
56'
J. Mosquera
/
C. Trujillo
56'
Y. Osorio
/
E. Lopez
57'
L. Sandoval
N. Rodriguez
/ A. Sarmiento
68'
⚽A. Roman
· ast. A. Morelos
71'
74'
J. Nieto
/
L. Sandoval
J. Campuzano
/ J. Zapata
76'
J. Rengifo
/ E. Cardona
76'
⚽E. Cardona
77'
79'
ast. J. Nieto ·
A. Parra Osorio⚽
80'
E. Valencia
/
J. Gonzalez
A. Roman
/ M. Moreno
86'
A. Morelos
/ K. C. Perez
86'
Pre-match prediction
66.84%
Atletico ←
18.67%
X
14.49%
Deportes
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
66.84%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.21
1.32
-0.89
0.69
0.66
-0.03
Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (1.32 vs 0.66).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
David Ospina
G
David Ospina
G
33
Samuel Velásquez
D
Samuel Velásquez
D
16
William Tesillo
D
William Tesillo
D
4
César Haydar
1 👟
D
César Haydar
1 👟
D
6
A. Román
1 ⚽
86'
D
A. Román
1 ⚽
86'
D
8
Matheus Uribe
M
Matheus Uribe
M
21
J. Campuzano
1 ⚽
76'
M
J. Campuzano
1 ⚽
76'
M
13
N. Rodríguez
68'
M
N. Rodríguez
68'
M
19
J. Rengifo
76'
M
J. Rengifo
76'
M
18
E. Bello
M
E. Bello
M
9
A. Morelos
1 👟
86'
F
A. Morelos
1 👟
86'
F
Bench
14
Andres Marin
D
Andres Marin
D
29
A. Sarmiento
22'
F
A. Sarmiento
22'
F
10
E. Cardona
1 ⚽
14'
M
E. Cardona
1 ⚽
14'
M
15
Harlen Castillo
G
Harlen Castillo
G
80
Juan Zapata
14'
M
Juan Zapata
14'
M
36
Kevin Pérez
8'
F
Kevin Pérez
8'
F
7
Marlos Moreno
8'
F
Marlos Moreno
8'
F
3
Neider Parra
D
Neider Parra
D
31
Xavi Rios
M
Xavi Rios
M
1
Neto Volpi
G
Neto Volpi
G
17
Cristian Arrieta
D
Cristian Arrieta
D
6
Cristian Trujillo
56'
D
Cristian Trujillo
56'
D
3
Jan Ángulo
D
Jan Ángulo
D
28
Edwar López
56'
D
Edwar López
56'
D
80
Brayan Rovira
M
Brayan Rovira
M
32
Sebastián Guzmán
M
Sebastián Guzmán
M
7
Jersson González
80'
M
Jersson González
80'
M
10
Juan Torres
M
Juan Torres
M
18
Kelvin Florez
45'
M
Kelvin Florez
45'
M
9
Luis Sandoval
74'
F
Luis Sandoval
74'
F
Bench
24
Adrián Parra
1 ⚽
45'
F
Adrián Parra
1 ⚽
45'
F
8
Ever Valencia
10'
F
Ever Valencia
10'
F
33
Jherson Mosquera
34'
D
Jherson Mosquera
34'
D
15
Juan Pablo Nieto
1 👟
16'
M
Juan Pablo Nieto
1 👟
16'
M
20
Junior Hernández
D
Junior Hernández
D
22
Luis Marquinez
G
Luis Marquinez
G
29
Neifer Sanchez
F
Neifer Sanchez
F
31
Yoimar Moreno
M
Yoimar Moreno
M
71
Yordan Osorio
34'
D
Yordan Osorio
34'
D
Best on the pitch
J. Campuzano
M · Atletico
8.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 26 pass
Adrián Parra
F · Deportes
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 8 pass
E. Cardona
M · Atletico
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 4 pass
A. Morelos
F · Atletico
7.60
1 👟
3 shots
· 32 pass
David Ospina
G · Atletico
7.30
· 24 pass
A. Román
D · Atletico
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 12 pass
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Ospina | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Velásquez | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | 3 | — | — |
| William Tesillo | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| César Haydar | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 26 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Román | D | 86 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Uribe | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 18% | — | — | — |
| J. Campuzano | M | 76 | 8.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 26 | 22% | 1 | 1 | — |
| N. Rodríguez | M | 68 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 11% | 3 | 1 | — |
| J. Rengifo | M | 76 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 20% | 4 | — | — |
| E. Bello | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Morelos | F | 86 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 3 | 32 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Sarmiento | F | 22 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Cardona | M | 14 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Juan Zapata | M | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Pérez | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Marlos Moreno | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
Deportes Tolima — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neto Volpi | G | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Arrieta | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| Cristian Trujillo | D | 56 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Jan Ángulo | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Edwar López | D | 56 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Brayan Rovira | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 42 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Guzmán | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 67 | 64% | — | — | — |
| Jersson González | M | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Juan Torres | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 47 | 38% | — | — | — |
| Kelvin Florez | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Luis Sandoval | F | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| Adrián Parra | F | 45 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Ever Valencia | F | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Jherson Mosquera | D | 34 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 12 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Pablo Nieto | M | 16 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 12 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Yordan Osorio | D | 34 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
The model assigned 66% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 18% to a draw, and 14% to an Deportes Tolima win.