Atletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo Pasto — pre-match prediction — Liga BetPlay — October 23, 2026

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Liga BetPlay · Clausura - 14 October 23, 2026 03:00 Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin

Atletico Nacional

#1 · 40 pts

3 – 0

Final score

Deportivo Pasto

#3 · 34 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional

E. Cardona (ast. J. Zapata) 13'

R. Escorcia 52'

J. Rengifo (ast. N. Rodriguez) 90'

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 72% win probability (draw 17%, Deportivo Pasto 10%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo Pasto. In 1 previous meetings, Atletico Nacional have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Deportivo Pasto.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.06

Actual xG

0.15

Saves

63%

Possession

37%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽E. Cardona · ast. J. Zapata

13'

X. Rios

41'

50'

F. Torijano

⚽R. Escorcia

52'

A. Reyes

56'

61'

J. Micolta Piedahita / D. Chavez ↕

61'

P. Preciado / M. Gil ↕

↕ R. Escorcia / E. Benitez

65'

↕ E. Cabrera / K. Parra Atehortua

65'

↕ E. Cardona / N. Rodriguez

65'

68'

J. Mendez / J. Perlaza ↕

69'

J. Rios / N. Gil ↕

C. Haydar

73'

↕ C. Haydar / W. Tesillo

73'

↕ S. Rojas / M. Uribe

73'

80'

S. Cordoba / H. Mancilla ↕

⚽J. Rengifo · ast. N. Rodriguez

90'

Pre-match prediction

72.24%

Atletico ←

17.51%

10.24%

Deportivo

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional) 72.24% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Atletico

2.06

1.06

-1.0

Deportivo

0.57

0.15

-0.42

Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (1.06 vs 0.15). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	40
2	Junior	19	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	34
4	America de Cali	19	33
5	Once Caldas	19	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	31
7	Santa Fe	19	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	27
10	Millonarios	19	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	23
14	Llaneros	19	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	22
16	Jaguares	19	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	17
18	Chico	19	17
19	Cucuta	19	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	10

Lineups

Atletico Nacional 4-3-3

Franco Armani G 7.00

Milton Casco D 7.90

César Haydar 73' D 8.20

Andres Reyes D 7.70

Xavi Rios D 7.20

Jose Rafael Escorcia 1 ⚽ 65' M 8.30

Juan Zapata 1 👟 M 7.60

Simon Rojas 73' M 7.30

Juan Manuel Rengifo 1 ⚽ F 8.50

Edwin Cardona 1 ⚽ 65' F 8.30

Elías Cabrera 65' F 6.90

Bench

Elkin Rivero M

Emanuel Benitez 25' F 6.30

Kevin Parra 25' M 6.70

Luis Marquinez G

Matheus Uribe 17' M 6.90

Nicolás Rodríguez 1 👟 25' F 7.00

William Tesillo 17' D 6.90

Yeicar Perlaza D

Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2

Geovanni Banguera G 5.30

Hervin Goyes D 6.50

Nicolas Gil Uribe 69' D 6.00

Fainer Torijano D 6.30

Mateo Garavito D 5.90

Franco Leys M 6.30

Harrinson Mancilla 80' M 6.30

Enrique Serje M 6.70

Diego Chávez 61' M 6.20

Jonathan Perlaza 68' F 6.50

Mayer Gil 61' F 6.50

Bench

John Méndez 22' F 6.50

Joider Micolta 29' M 6.30

Joyce Ossa 21' D 6.30

Julián Quiñones D

Luis Marquínez G

Matías Pisano M

Patrick Preciado 29' F 6.70

Santiago Córdoba 10' F 6.30

Yeiler Góez M

Best on the pitch

Juan Manuel Rengifo

F · Atletico

8.50

1 ⚽

3 shots · 35 pass

Jose Rafael Escorcia

M · Atletico

8.30

1 ⚽

3 shots · 26 pass

Edwin Cardona

F · Atletico

8.30

1 ⚽

4 shots · 35 pass

César Haydar

D · Atletico

8.20

· 78 pass

Milton Casco

D · Atletico

7.90

· 63 pass

Andres Reyes

D · Atletico

7.70

· 75 pass

Atletico Nacional — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Franco Armani	G	90	7.00	—	—	—	25	24%	—	—	—
Milton Casco	D	90	7.90	—	—	—	63	58%	4	—	—
César Haydar	D	73	8.20	—	—	—	78	72%	2	1	—
Andres Reyes	D	90	7.70	—	—	—	75	73%	1	1	—
Xavi Rios	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	47	38%	7	1	—
Jose Rafael Escorcia	M	65	8.30	1	—	3	26	23%	4	—	—
Juan Zapata	M	90	7.60	—	1	—	60	57%	5	—	—
Simon Rojas	M	73	7.30	—	—	1	40	31%	4	—	—
Juan Manuel Rengifo	F	90	8.50	1	—	3	35	30%	2	—	—
Edwin Cardona	F	65	8.30	1	—	4	35	25%	—	—	—
Elías Cabrera	F	65	6.90	—	—	—	21	17%	2	—	—
Emanuel Benitez	F	25	6.30	—	—	—	9	9%	—	—	—
Kevin Parra	M	25	6.70	—	—	1	13	12%	1	—	—
Matheus Uribe	M	17	6.90	—	—	1	24	21%	1	—	—
Nicolás Rodríguez	F	25	7.00	—	1	1	11	7%	2	—	—
William Tesillo	D	17	6.90	—	—	—	21	19%	—	—	—

Deportivo Pasto — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Geovanni Banguera	G	90	5.30	—	—	—	35	24%	—	—	—
Hervin Goyes	D	90	6.50	—	—	—	28	21%	1	—	—
Nicolas Gil Uribe	D	69	6.00	—	—	—	27	21%	—	—	—
Fainer Torijano	D	90	6.30	—	—	—	34	29%	—	1	—
Mateo Garavito	D	90	5.90	—	—	—	27	22%	1	—	—
Franco Leys	M	90	6.30	—	—	—	47	37%	1	—	—
Harrinson Mancilla	M	80	6.30	—	—	—	30	25%	2	—	—
Enrique Serje	M	90	6.70	—	—	—	27	23%	3	—	—
Diego Chávez	M	61	6.20	—	—	—	15	14%	1	—	—
Jonathan Perlaza	F	68	6.50	—	—	—	11	8%	—	—	—
Mayer Gil	F	61	6.50	—	—	1	17	14%	1	—	—
John Méndez	F	22	6.50	—	—	—	7	5%	—	—	—
Joider Micolta	M	29	6.30	—	—	—	8	6%	1	—	—
Joyce Ossa	D	21	6.30	—	—	—	6	5%	—	—	—
Patrick Preciado	F	29	6.70	—	—	—	6	5%	—	—	—
Santiago Córdoba	F	10	6.30	—	—	—	3	3%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

The final score was Atletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo Pasto.

What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto?

The model assigned 72% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 17% to a draw, and 10% to an Deportivo Pasto win.