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Liga BetPlay · Clausura - 16 October 26, 2026 00:10 Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin
Atletico Nacional
#1 · 40 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Independiente Medellin
#8 · 23 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional
E. Cardona (ast. E. Cabrera) 53'
A. Sarmiento (ast. S. Velasquez) 73'
29' (ast. C. Lucumi) A. Simarra
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 59% win probability (draw 21%, Independiente Medellin 18%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 2–1 Independiente Medellin. In 1 previous meetings, Atletico Nacional have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Independiente Medellin.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
3
1.69
Actual xG
1.58
2
Saves
3
59%
Possession
41%
3
Corners
8
18
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
20'
H. Loboa
29'
ast. C. Lucumi · A. Simarra⚽
E. Cardona
32'
41'
L. Escorcia
45'+1
D. Moreno
⚽E. Cardona · ast. E. Cabrera
53'
↕ M. Uribe / A. Sarmiento
56'
58'
J. Medina / C. Lucumi ↕
↕ N. Parra / C. Haydar
62'
65'
G. Mancilla / F. Fabra ↕
65'
B. Perlaza / Yony Gonzalez ↕
⚽A. Sarmiento · ast. S. Velasquez
73'
↕ E. Cardona / A. Morelos
77'
↕ J. Rodriguez / N. Rodriguez
77'
↕ A. Roman / X. Rios
77'
77'
D. Moreno / D. Moreno ↕
77'
K. Mantilla / H. Loboa ↕
Pre-match prediction
59.39%
Atletico ←
21.97%
X
18.65%
Independiente
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional) 59.39% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Atletico
1.82
1.69
-0.13
Independiente
0.82
1.58
+0.76
xG dominance was balanced (1.69 – 1.58). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 19 40
2 Junior Junior 19 35
3 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 19 34
4 America de Cali America de Cali 19 33
5 Once Caldas Once Caldas 19 33
6 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 19 31
7 Santa Fe Santa Fe 19 29
8 Internacional de Bogota Internacional de Bogota 19 28
9 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 19 27
10 Millonarios Millonarios 19 26
11 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 19 26
12 Águilas Doradas Águilas Doradas 19 26
13 Bucaramanga Bucaramanga 19 23
14 Llaneros Llaneros 19 22
15 Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 19 22
16 Jaguares Jaguares 19 18
17 Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 19 17
18 Chico Chico 19 17
19 Cucuta Cucuta 19 16
20 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 19 10
Lineups
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-4-2
34 Franco Armani Franco Armani G 7.20
33 Samuel Velásquez Samuel Velásquez 1 👟 D 7.50
16 William Tesillo William Tesillo D 6.70
3 Neider Parra Neider Parra 62' D 7.20
6 Andrés Román Andrés Román 77' D 6.70
26 Felipe Marin Felipe Marin M 7.00
8 Matheus Uribe Matheus Uribe 56' M 6.90
21 Jorman Campuzano Jorman Campuzano M 7.00
22 Elías Cabrera Elías Cabrera 1 👟 M 7.00
23 James Rodríguez James Rodríguez 77' F 7.00
10 Edwin Cardona Edwin Cardona 1 ⚽ 77' F 7.30
Bench
9 Alfredo Morelos Alfredo Morelos 13' F 6.50
29 Andrés Sarmiento Andrés Sarmiento 1 ⚽ 34' F 7.30
4 César Haydar César Haydar 28' D 7.20
19 Juan Manuel Rengifo Juan Manuel Rengifo F
80 Juan Zapata Juan Zapata M
25 Luis Marquinez Luis Marquinez G
20 Milton Casco Milton Casco D
13 Nicolás Rodríguez Nicolás Rodríguez 13' F 6.30
31 Xavi Rios Xavi Rios 13' M 6.70
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 4-4-2
1 Salvador Ichazo Salvador Ichazo G 6.90
18 Frank Fabra Frank Fabra 65' D 7.30
19 Alfonso Simarra Alfonso Simarra 1 ⚽ D 6.60
39 Luis Escorcia Luis Escorcia D 6.30
26 Esneyder Mena Esneyder Mena D 6.90
20 John Edwin Montaño John Edwin Montaño M 7.00
16 Halam Loboa Halam Loboa 77' M 6.20
6 Didier Moreno Didier Moreno 77' M 6.20
11 Yony González Yony González 65' M 6.30
32 Carlos Lucumi Carlos Lucumi 1 👟 58' F 7.20
21 Agustín Martegani Agustín Martegani F 6.60
Bench
14 Baldomero Perlaza Baldomero Perlaza 25' M 6.30
10 Daniel Cataño Daniel Cataño M
31 Diego Moreno Diego Moreno 13' M 6.70
25 Eder Chaux Eder Chaux G
17 Geronimo Mancilla Geronimo Mancilla 25' F 6.50
9 Jeison Medina Jeison Medina 32' F 6.60
5 Joaquin Varela Joaquin Varela D
34 Keiner Klinger Keiner Klinger M
4 Kevin Mantilla Kevin Mantilla 13' D 6.90
Best on the pitch
Samuel Velásquez
Samuel Velásquez
D · Atletico
7.50
1 👟
1 shots · 42 pass
Andrés Sarmiento
Andrés Sarmiento
F · Atletico
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 10 pass
Frank Fabra
Frank Fabra
D · Independiente
7.30
· 22 pass
Edwin Cardona
Edwin Cardona
F · Atletico
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 31 pass
Franco Armani
Franco Armani
G · Atletico
7.20
· 27 pass
César Haydar
César Haydar
D · Atletico
7.20
· 17 pass
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Franco Armani G 90 7.20 — — — 27 22% 0 — —
Samuel Velásquez D 90 7.50 — 1 1 42 40% 1 — —
William Tesillo D 90 6.70 — — — 63 52% 1 — —
Neider Parra D 62 7.20 — — — 31 24% 3 — —
Andrés Román D 77 6.70 — — 3 25 20% 1 — —
Felipe Marin M 90 7.00 — — — 27 22% 3 — —
Matheus Uribe M 56 6.90 — — — 11 10% 3 — —
Jorman Campuzano M 90 7.00 — — — 40 33% 1 — —
Elías Cabrera M 90 7.00 — 1 — 39 31% 1 — —
James Rodríguez F 77 7.00 — — — 43 37% 1 — —
Edwin Cardona F 77 7.30 1 — 1 31 27% 1 1 —
Alfredo Morelos F 13 6.50 — — — 4 4% 0 — —
Andrés Sarmiento F 34 7.30 1 — 1 10 8% 0 — —
César Haydar D 28 7.20 — — — 17 11% 2 — —
Nicolás Rodríguez F 13 6.30 — — 1 5 5% 0 — —
Xavi Rios M 13 6.70 — — — 6 6% 0 — —
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Salvador Ichazo G 90 6.90 — — — 28 12% 0 — —
Frank Fabra D 65 7.30 — — — 22 15% 5 — —
Alfonso Simarra D 90 6.60 1 — 1 30 26% 0 — —
Luis Escorcia D 90 6.30 — — — 30 27% 0 1 —
Esneyder Mena D 90 6.90 — — — 29 20% 3 — —
John Edwin Montaño M 90 7.00 — — 2 25 22% 2 — —
Halam Loboa M 77 6.20 — — 1 15 13% 2 1 —
Didier Moreno M 77 6.20 — — — 26 21% 0 1 —
Yony González M 65 6.30 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
Carlos Lucumi F 58 7.20 — 1 — 9 9% 0 — —
Agustín Martegani F 90 6.60 — — 1 15 13% 0 — —
Baldomero Perlaza M 25 6.30 — — — 13 12% 0 — —
Diego Moreno M 13 6.70 — — — 7 5% 0 — —
Geronimo Mancilla F 25 6.50 — — 1 7 4% 0 — —
Jeison Medina F 32 6.60 — — — 4 3% 0 — —
Kevin Mantilla D 13 6.90 — — — 9 8% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 2–1 Independiente Medellin.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 21% to a draw, and 18% to an Independiente Medellin win.