✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional
S. Garcia
(ast. W. Tesillo)
40'
M. Uribe
(ast. J. Rengifo)
45'+3
A. Morelos
(ast. N. Rodriguez)
51'
S. Garcia
65'
C. Arango
(ast. N. Rodriguez)
72'
E. Cardona
(ast. A. Sarmiento)
78'
A. Sarmiento
(ast. E. Cardona)
82'
5'
J. Valencia
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 74% win probability (draw 13%, Internacional de Bogota 12%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 7–1 Internacional de Bogota. In 2 previous meetings, Atletico Nacional have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Internacional de Bogota.
Match statistics
19
Total shots
9
15
Shots on target
5
4.01
Actual xG
1.10
5
Saves
8
59%
Possession
41%
9
Corners
3
12
Tackles
9
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
5'
J. Valencia⚽
⚽S. Garcia
· ast. W. Tesillo
40'
⚽M. Uribe
· ast. J. Rengifo
45'+3
45'+4
D. Quinones
M. Casco
/ C. Haydar
46'
⚽A. Morelos
· ast. N. Rodriguez
51'
52'
R. Manjarres
/
D. Quinones
53'
J. Caballero
/
F. Bone
60'
S. Mayo
/
J. Valencia
E. Bello
/ A. Sarmiento
61'
A. Morelos
/ C. Arango
61'
⚽S. Garcia
65'
68'
S. Palacio
/
W. Farinez
M. Uribe
/ J. Zapata
71'
J. Rengifo
/ E. Cardona
71'
⚽C. Arango
· ast. N. Rodriguez
72'
⚽E. Cardona
· ast. A. Sarmiento
78'
⚽A. Sarmiento
· ast. E. Cardona
82'
Pre-match prediction
74.69%
Atletico ←
13.25%
X
12.06%
Internacional
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
74.69%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.93
4.01
+1.08
0.90
1.10
+0.2
Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (4.01 vs 1.10).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
David Ospina
G
David Ospina
G
20
Milton Casco
45'
D
Milton Casco
45'
D
16
William Tesillo
1 👟
D
William Tesillo
1 👟
D
28
Simon Garcia
2 ⚽
D
Simon Garcia
2 ⚽
D
6
A. Román
D
A. Román
D
8
Matheus Uribe
1 ⚽
71'
M
Matheus Uribe
1 ⚽
71'
M
21
J. Campuzano
M
J. Campuzano
M
13
Nicolás Rodríguez
2 👟
M
Nicolás Rodríguez
2 👟
M
19
J. Rengifo
1 👟
71'
M
J. Rengifo
1 👟
71'
M
18
E. Bello
61'
M
E. Bello
61'
M
9
A. Morelos
1 ⚽
61'
F
A. Morelos
1 ⚽
61'
F
Bench
14
Andres Marin
D
Andres Marin
D
29
A. Sarmiento
1 ⚽
1 👟
29'
F
A. Sarmiento
1 ⚽
1 👟
29'
F
4
César Haydar
45'
D
César Haydar
45'
D
17
Cristian Arango
1 ⚽
29'
F
Cristian Arango
1 ⚽
29'
F
5
Cristian Uribe
D
Cristian Uribe
D
10
E. Cardona
1 ⚽
1 👟
19'
M
E. Cardona
1 ⚽
1 👟
19'
M
15
Harlen Castillo
G
Harlen Castillo
G
24
Juan Rosa
F
Juan Rosa
F
80
Juan Zapata
19'
M
Juan Zapata
19'
M
1
W. Fariñez
68'
G
W. Fariñez
68'
G
22
Kalazan Suárez
D
Kalazan Suárez
D
26
A. Irazoque
D
A. Irazoque
D
2
C. Vivas
D
C. Vivas
D
20
J. Castro
D
J. Castro
D
7
F. Sanguinetti
M
F. Sanguinetti
M
5
L. Vásquez
M
L. Vásquez
M
15
D. Quiñonez
52'
M
D. Quiñonez
52'
M
10
K. Parra
M
K. Parra
M
9
Juan Valencia
1 ⚽
60'
F
Juan Valencia
1 ⚽
60'
F
11
F. Boné
53'
F
F. Boné
53'
F
Bench
21
Bayron Caicedo
F
Bayron Caicedo
F
4
D. Rodas
D
D. Rodas
D
23
J. Caballero
37'
F
J. Caballero
37'
F
6
Miguel Amaya
D
Miguel Amaya
D
24
R. Manjarrés
38'
M
R. Manjarrés
38'
M
25
Ronaldo Julio
F
Ronaldo Julio
F
8
Samir Mayo
30'
D
Samir Mayo
30'
D
30
Simon Zapata
22'
G
Simon Zapata
22'
G
19
Yeider Garcia
F
Yeider Garcia
F
Best on the pitch
E. Cardona
M · Atletico
8.90
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 10 pass
Simon Garcia
D · Atletico
8.60
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 53 pass
Matheus Uribe
M · Atletico
8.50
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 41 pass
A. Sarmiento
F · Atletico
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots
· 5 pass
William Tesillo
D · Atletico
8.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 86 pass
W. Fariñez
G · Internacional
7.90
· 4 pass
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Ospina | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Milton Casco | D | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 23 | 17% | — | — | — |
| William Tesillo | D | 90 | 8.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 86 | 78% | 1 | — | — |
| Simon Garcia | D | 90 | 8.60 | 2 | — | 3 | 53 | 49% | — | — | — |
| A. Román | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 37 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Uribe | M | 71 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 4 | 41 | 37% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Campuzano | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 74 | 70% | 2 | — | — |
| Nicolás Rodríguez | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | 2 | 1 | 20 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Rengifo | M | 71 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 37 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Bello | M | 61 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| A. Morelos | F | 61 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 28 | 23% | — | — | — |
| A. Sarmiento | F | 29 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| César Haydar | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Arango | F | 29 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| E. Cardona | M | 19 | 8.90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Juan Zapata | M | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
Internacional de Bogota — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Fariñez | G | 68 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Kalazan Suárez | D | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Irazoque | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 37 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Vivas | D | 90 | 5.00 | — | — | — | 46 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Castro | D | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Sanguinetti | M | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Vásquez | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 46 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Quiñonez | M | 52 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| K. Parra | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 41 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Juan Valencia | F | 60 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| F. Boné | F | 53 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| J. Caballero | F | 37 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | — | — | — |
| R. Manjarrés | M | 38 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 24 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Samir Mayo | D | 30 | 5.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Simon Zapata | G | 22 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Internacional de Bogota?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 7–1 Internacional de Bogota.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Internacional de Bogota?
The model assigned 74% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 13% to a draw, and 12% to an Internacional de Bogota win.