✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional
A. Sarmiento
(ast. A. Morelos)
16'
E. Bello
(ast. A. Sarmiento)
69'
36'
(ast. Y. Moreno)
Jopito
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 71% win probability (draw 18%, Jaguares 10%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 2–1 Jaguares. In 1 previous meetings, Atletico Nacional have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Jaguares.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
5
6
Shots on target
1
1.11
Actual xG
0.81
0
Saves
4
51%
Possession
49%
4
Corners
2
6
Tackles
8
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
15'
R. R. Colpa Bolano
⚽A. Sarmiento
· ast. A. Morelos
16'
S. Garcia
30'
36'
ast. Y. Moreno ·
Jopito⚽
J. Campuzano
48'
M. Uribe
/ E. Bello
60'
E. Cardona
/ C. Arango
60'
68'
R. Bustamante
/
F. Mosquera
⚽E. Bello
· ast. A. Sarmiento
69'
A. Sarmiento
/ M. Moreno
72'
76'
D. Rodriguez Urango
/
Y. Moreno
76'
D. Lopez
/
Jopito
76'
J. Mejia
/
A. Renteria
77'
J. Hinestroza
82'
B. Angulo Castro
/
J. Hinestroza
A. Morelos
/ D. Asprilla
85'
J. Rengifo
/ F. Marin
85'
87'
J. Lovera
Pre-match prediction
71.36%
Atletico ←
18.57%
X
10.07%
Jaguares
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
71.36%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.48
1.11
-1.37
0.67
0.81
+0.14
xG dominance was balanced (1.11 – 0.81).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
44
G
20
D
28
Simon Garcia
D
Simon Garcia
D
3
D
6
A. Román
D
A. Román
D
10
E. Cardona
60'
M
E. Cardona
60'
M
8
Matheus Uribe
60'
M
Matheus Uribe
60'
M
29
A. Sarmiento
1 ⚽
1 👟
72'
M
A. Sarmiento
1 ⚽
1 👟
72'
M
21
J. Campuzano
M
J. Campuzano
M
19
J. Rengifo
85'
M
J. Rengifo
85'
M
9
A. Morelos
1 👟
85'
F
A. Morelos
1 👟
85'
F
Bench
17
Cristian Arango
30'
F
Cristian Arango
30'
F
27
D. Asprilla
9'
F
D. Asprilla
9'
F
18
E. Bello
1 ⚽
30'
F
E. Bello
1 ⚽
30'
F
35
Matias Lozano
M
Matias Lozano
M
7
M. Moreno
18'
F
M. Moreno
18'
F
33
Samuel Velásquez
M
Samuel Velásquez
M
12
F. Mosquera
G
F. Mosquera
G
29
C. Henao
D
C. Henao
D
5
R. Colpa
D
R. Colpa
D
6
J. Lovera
D
J. Lovera
D
15
Jáder Maza
M
Jáder Maza
M
23
Fabián Mosquera
68'
M
13
J. Hinestroza
82'
M
J. Hinestroza
82'
M
25
M
19
Yairo Moreno
1 👟
76'
F
10
C. Álvarez
1 ⚽
76'
F
C. Álvarez
1 ⚽
76'
F
11
A. Rentería
76'
F
A. Rentería
76'
F
Bench
14
Bladimir Angulo
8'
M
26
D. López
14'
F
D. López
14'
F
1
D. Martínez
G
D. Martínez
G
8
D. Rodríguez
14'
F
D. Rodríguez
14'
F
16
J. Mejia
14'
F
J. Mejia
14'
F
21
R. Bustamante
22'
M
R. Bustamante
22'
M
7
W. De La Rosa
F
W. De La Rosa
F
Best on the pitch
A. Sarmiento
M · Atletico
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 17 pass
E. Bello
F · Atletico
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 10 pass
C. Álvarez
F · Jaguares
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 30 pass
Yairo Moreno
F · Jaguares
7.50
1 👟
· 28 pass
J. Campuzano
M · Atletico
7.20
· 49 pass
J. Rengifo
M · Atletico
7.00
4 shots
· 50 pass
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 26% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 30% | 3 | — | — | |
| Simon Garcia | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 63 | 59% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 59 | 56% | — | — | — | |
| A. Román | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 26% | — | — | — |
| E. Cardona | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Uribe | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Sarmiento | M | 72 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| J. Campuzano | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 49 | 47% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Rengifo | M | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | 4 | 50 | 42% | — | — | — |
| A. Morelos | F | 85 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 4 | 28 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Arango | F | 30 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| D. Asprilla | F | 9 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| E. Bello | F | 30 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| M. Moreno | F | 18 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
Jaguares — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Mosquera | G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | — | — | — |
| C. Henao | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| R. Colpa | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 49% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Lovera | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 39 | 30% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Jáder Maza | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| Fabián Mosquera | M | 68 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 33 | 30% | — | — | — |
| J. Hinestroza | M | 82 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | — | 1 | — |
| M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | — | — | — | |
| Yairo Moreno | F | 76 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| C. Álvarez | F | 76 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 30 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Rentería | F | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Bladimir Angulo | M | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| D. López | F | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| D. Rodríguez | F | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| J. Mejia | F | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| R. Bustamante | M | 22 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Jaguares?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 2–1 Jaguares.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Jaguares?
The model assigned 71% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 18% to a draw, and 10% to an Jaguares win.