✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional
A. Sarmiento
(ast. A. Morelos)
16'
E. Bello
(ast. A. Sarmiento)
69'
36'
(ast. Y. Moreno)
Jopito
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 71% win probability (draw 18%, Jaguares 10%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 2–1 Jaguares. In 1 previous meetings, Atletico Nacional have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Jaguares.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
5
6
Shots on target
1
1.11
Actual xG
0.81
0
Saves
4
51%
Possession
49%
4
Corners
2
6
Tackles
8
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
15'
R. R. Colpa Bolano
⚽A. Sarmiento
· ast. A. Morelos
16'
S. Garcia
30'
36'
ast. Y. Moreno ·
Jopito⚽
J. Campuzano
48'
M. Uribe
/ E. Bello
60'
E. Cardona
/ C. Arango
60'
68'
R. Bustamante
/
F. Mosquera
⚽E. Bello
· ast. A. Sarmiento
69'
A. Sarmiento
/ M. Moreno
72'
76'
D. Rodriguez Urango
/
Y. Moreno
76'
D. Lopez
/
Jopito
76'
J. Mejia
/
A. Renteria
77'
J. Hinestroza
82'
B. Angulo Castro
/
J. Hinestroza
A. Morelos
/ D. Asprilla
85'
J. Rengifo
/ F. Marin
85'
87'
J. Lovera
Pre-match prediction
71.36%
Atletico ←
18.57%
X
10.07%
Jaguares
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
71.36%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.48
1.11
-1.37
0.67
0.81
+0.14
xG dominance was balanced (1.11 – 0.81).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
44
G
20
D
28
S. Garcia
D
S. Garcia
D
3
D
6
Andrés Román
D
Andrés Román
D
10
Edwin Cardona
60'
M
Edwin Cardona
60'
M
8
Matheus Uribe
60'
M
Matheus Uribe
60'
M
29
Andrés Sarmiento
1 ⚽
1 👟
72'
M
Andrés Sarmiento
1 ⚽
1 👟
72'
M
21
Jorman Campuzano
M
Jorman Campuzano
M
19
Juan Manuel Rengifo
85'
M
Juan Manuel Rengifo
85'
M
9
Alfredo Morelos
1 👟
85'
F
Alfredo Morelos
1 👟
85'
F
Bench
17
C. Arango
30'
F
C. Arango
30'
F
27
D. Asprilla
9'
F
D. Asprilla
9'
F
18
E. Bello
1 ⚽
30'
F
E. Bello
1 ⚽
30'
F
35
Matias Lozano
M
Matias Lozano
M
7
M. Moreno
18'
F
M. Moreno
18'
F
33
Samuel Velásquez
M
Samuel Velásquez
M
12
Franklin Mosquera
G
Franklin Mosquera
G
29
Carlos Henao
D
Carlos Henao
D
5
Royscer Colpa
D
Royscer Colpa
D
6
Jonathan Lovera
D
Jonathan Lovera
D
15
Jáder Maza
M
Jáder Maza
M
23
Fabián Mosquera
68'
M
13
J. Hinestroza
82'
M
J. Hinestroza
82'
M
25
M
19
Yairo Moreno
1 👟
76'
F
10
Cristian Alvarez
1 ⚽
76'
F
Cristian Alvarez
1 ⚽
76'
F
11
Andrés Rentería
76'
F
Andrés Rentería
76'
F
Bench
14
Bladimir Angulo
8'
M
26
Darwin Lopez
14'
F
Darwin Lopez
14'
F
1
Diego Martínez
G
Diego Martínez
G
8
D. Rodríguez
14'
F
D. Rodríguez
14'
F
16
Johar Mejía
14'
F
Johar Mejía
14'
F
21
Rafael Bustamante
22'
M
Rafael Bustamante
22'
M
7
Wilfrido De la Rosa
F
Wilfrido De la Rosa
F
Best on the pitch
Andrés Sarmiento
M · Atletico
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 17 pass
E. Bello
F · Atletico
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 10 pass
Cristian Alvarez
F · Jaguares
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 30 pass
Yairo Moreno
F · Jaguares
7.50
1 👟
· 28 pass
Jorman Campuzano
M · Atletico
7.20
· 49 pass
Juan Manuel Rengifo
M · Atletico
7.00
4 shots
· 50 pass
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 26% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 30% | 3 | — | — | |
| S. Garcia | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 63 | 59% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 59 | 56% | — | — | — | |
| Andrés Román | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Edwin Cardona | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Uribe | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Andrés Sarmiento | M | 72 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Jorman Campuzano | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 49 | 47% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Juan Manuel Rengifo | M | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | 4 | 50 | 42% | — | — | — |
| Alfredo Morelos | F | 85 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 4 | 28 | 20% | — | — | — |
| C. Arango | F | 30 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| D. Asprilla | F | 9 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| E. Bello | F | 30 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| M. Moreno | F | 18 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
Jaguares — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin Mosquera | G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Henao | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Royscer Colpa | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 49% | — | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Lovera | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 39 | 30% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Jáder Maza | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| Fabián Mosquera | M | 68 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 33 | 30% | — | — | — |
| J. Hinestroza | M | 82 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | — | 1 | — |
| M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | — | — | — | |
| Yairo Moreno | F | 76 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Alvarez | F | 76 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 30 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Andrés Rentería | F | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Bladimir Angulo | M | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Darwin Lopez | F | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| D. Rodríguez | F | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Johar Mejía | F | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Bustamante | M | 22 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Jaguares?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 2–1 Jaguares.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Jaguares?
The model assigned 71% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 18% to a draw, and 10% to an Jaguares win.