✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional
A. Sarmiento
(ast. A. Morelos)
16'
E. Bello
(ast. A. Sarmiento)
69'
36'
(ast. Y. Moreno)
Jopito
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 71% win probability (draw 18%, Jaguares 10%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 2–1 Jaguares.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
5
6
Shots on target
1
1.11
Actual xG
0.81
0
Saves
4
51%
Possession
49%
4
Corners
2
6
Tackles
8
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
15'
R. R. Colpa Bolano
⚽A. Sarmiento
· ast. A. Morelos
16'
S. Garcia
30'
36'
ast. Y. Moreno ·
Jopito⚽
J. Campuzano
48'
M. Uribe
/ E. Bello
60'
E. Cardona
/ C. Arango
60'
68'
R. Bustamante
/
F. Mosquera
⚽E. Bello
· ast. A. Sarmiento
69'
A. Sarmiento
/ M. Moreno
72'
76'
D. Rodriguez Urango
/
Y. Moreno
76'
D. Lopez
/
Jopito
76'
J. Mejia
/
A. Renteria
77'
J. Hinestroza
82'
B. Angulo Castro
/
J. Hinestroza
A. Morelos
/ D. Asprilla
85'
J. Rengifo
/ F. Marin
85'
87'
J. Lovera
Pre-match prediction
71.36%
Atletico ←
18.57%
X
10.07%
Jaguares
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
71.36%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.48
1.11
-1.37
0.67
0.81
+0.14
xG dominance was balanced (1.11 – 0.81).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
44
G
20
D
28
Simon Garcia
D
Simon Garcia
D
3
D
6
A. Román
D
A. Román
D
10
E. Cardona
60'
M
E. Cardona
60'
M
8
Matheus Uribe
60'
M
Matheus Uribe
60'
M
29
A. Sarmiento
1 ⚽
1 👟
72'
M
A. Sarmiento
1 ⚽
1 👟
72'
M
21
J. Campuzano
M
J. Campuzano
M
19
J. Rengifo
85'
M
J. Rengifo
85'
M
9
A. Morelos
1 👟
85'
F
A. Morelos
1 👟
85'
F
Bench
17
Cristian Arango
30'
F
Cristian Arango
30'
F
27
Dairon Asprilla
9'
F
Dairon Asprilla
9'
F
18
E. Bello
1 ⚽
30'
F
E. Bello
1 ⚽
30'
F
7
Marlos Moreno
18'
F
Marlos Moreno
18'
F
35
M. Lozano
M
33
Samuel Velásquez
M
Samuel Velásquez
M
12
Franklin Mosquera
G
Franklin Mosquera
G
29
C. Henao
D
5
Royscer Colpa
D
Royscer Colpa
D
6
Jonathan Lovera
D
Jonathan Lovera
D
15
J. Maza
M
23
Fabián Mosquera
68'
M
13
Johan Hinestroza
82'
M
Johan Hinestroza
82'
M
25
M
19
Yairo Moreno
1 👟
76'
F
10
Cristian Alvarez
1 ⚽
76'
F
Cristian Alvarez
1 ⚽
76'
F
11
A. Rentería
76'
F
A. Rentería
76'
F
Bench
14
Bladimir Angulo
8'
M
26
Darwin Lopez
14'
F
Darwin Lopez
14'
F
1
Diego Martínez
G
Diego Martínez
G
8
D. Rodriguez Urango
14'
F
16
Johar Mejía
14'
F
Johar Mejía
14'
F
21
Rafael Bustamante
22'
M
Rafael Bustamante
22'
M
7
Wilfrido De la Rosa
F
Wilfrido De la Rosa
F
Best on the pitch
A. Sarmiento
M · Atletico
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 17 pass
E. Bello
F · Atletico
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 10 pass
Cristian Alvarez
F · Jaguares
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 30 pass
Yairo Moreno
F · Jaguares
7.50
1 👟
· 28 pass
J. Campuzano
M · Atletico
7.20
· 49 pass
J. Rengifo
M · Atletico
7.00
4 shots
· 50 pass
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 26% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 30% | 3 | — | — | |
| Simon Garcia | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 63 | 59% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 59 | 56% | — | — | — | |
| A. Román | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 26% | — | — | — |
| E. Cardona | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Uribe | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Sarmiento | M | 72 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| J. Campuzano | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 49 | 47% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Rengifo | M | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | 4 | 50 | 42% | — | — | — |
| A. Morelos | F | 85 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 4 | 28 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Arango | F | 30 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Dairon Asprilla | F | 9 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| E. Bello | F | 30 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Marlos Moreno | F | 18 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
Jaguares — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin Mosquera | G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | — | — | — |
| C. Henao | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Royscer Colpa | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 49% | — | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Lovera | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 39 | 30% | 3 | 1 | — |
| J. Maza | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| Fabián Mosquera | M | 68 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 33 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Johan Hinestroza | M | 82 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | — | 1 | — |
| M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | — | — | — | |
| Yairo Moreno | F | 76 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Alvarez | F | 76 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 30 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Rentería | F | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Bladimir Angulo | M | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Darwin Lopez | F | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| D. Rodriguez Urango | F | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Johar Mejía | F | 14 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Bustamante | M | 22 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Jaguares?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 2–1 Jaguares.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Jaguares?
The model assigned 71% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 18% to a draw, and 10% to an Jaguares win.