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Liga BetPlay · Apertura - Final June 09, 2026 00:00 Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin
Atletico Nacional
#1 · 40 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Junior
#2 · 35 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional
E. Cardona (ast. A. Sarmiento) 56'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 59% win probability (draw 21%, Junior 18%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 1–0 Junior. In 2 previous meetings, Atletico Nacional have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Junior.

Match statistics
20
Total shots
6
4
Shots on target
3
2.43
Actual xG
0.41
3
Saves
3
69%
Possession
31%
13
Corners
5
11
Tackles
13
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
1
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
31'
K. Catano
38'
↕ N. Rodriguez / E. Cardona
46'
54'
E. Herrera / L. Muriel ↕
54'
G. Paiva / C. Barrios ↕
54'
J. Rivas / J. Sarmiento ↕
⚽E. Cardona · ast. A. Sarmiento
56'
58'
J. Rios
⚽A. Morelos (missed pen.)
64'
↕ J. Rengifo / M. Moreno
65'
69'
J. Canchimbo / B. Castrillon ↕
↕ M. Uribe / J. Zapata
73'
↕ A. Roman / C. Arango
73'
77'
J. Guerrero
↕ A. Morelos / D. Asprilla
84'
M. Moreno
90'+5
90'+5
T. Gutierrez / J. Guerrero ↕
J. Zapata
90'+8
90'+8
90'
G. Paiva
Pre-match prediction
59.27%
Atletico ←
21.92%
X
18.81%
Junior
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional) 59.27% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Atletico
1.78
2.43
+0.65
Junior
0.88
0.41
-0.47
Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (2.43 vs 0.41). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 19 40
2 Junior Junior 19 35
3 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 19 34
4 America de Cali America de Cali 19 33
5 Once Caldas Once Caldas 19 33
6 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 19 31
7 Santa Fe Santa Fe 19 29
8 Internacional de Bogota Internacional de Bogota 19 28
9 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 19 27
10 Millonarios Millonarios 19 26
11 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 19 26
12 Águilas Doradas Águilas Doradas 19 26
13 Bucaramanga Bucaramanga 19 23
14 Llaneros Llaneros 19 22
15 Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 19 22
16 Jaguares Jaguares 19 18
17 Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 19 17
18 Chico Chico 19 17
19 Cucuta Cucuta 19 16
20 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 19 10
Lineups
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-2-3-1
15 Harlen Castillo Harlen Castillo G 7.30
20 M. Casco M. Casco D 7.20
16 W. Tesillo W. Tesillo D 8.30
4 César Haydar César Haydar D 8.20
6 A. Román A. Román 73' D 7.00
8 Matheus Uribe Matheus Uribe 73' M 6.60
21 J. Campuzano J. Campuzano M 7.90
29 A. Sarmiento A. Sarmiento 1 👟 M 6.60
19 J. Rengifo J. Rengifo 65' M 6.30
13 Nicolás Rodríguez Nicolás Rodríguez 45' M 6.90
9 A. Morelos A. Morelos 84' F 6.20
Bench
14 Andres Marin Andres Marin D
17 C. Arango C. Arango 17' F 6.50
27 D. Asprilla D. Asprilla 15' F 6.70
10 E. Cardona E. Cardona 1 ⚽ 45' M 9.20
80 J. Zapata J. Zapata 24' M 6.50
44 Kevin Cataño Kevin Cataño G
7 M. Moreno M. Moreno 25' F 6.60
3 N. Parra N. Parra D
31 X. Rios X. Rios M
Junior Junior 4-2-3-1
1 M. Silveira M. Silveira G 6.20
26 Y. Súarez Y. Súarez D 6.90
5 D. Rivera D. Rivera D 7.50
98 Jermein Peña Jermein Peña D 7.90
34 Jhonier Guerrero Jhonier Guerrero 89' D 6.50
14 J. Ríos J. Ríos M 6.20
80 F. Ángel F. Ángel M 7.20
88 B. Castrillón B. Castrillón 69' M 6.70
20 J. Sarmiento J. Sarmiento 54' M 6.90
77 C. Barrios C. Barrios 54' M 6.60
10 L. Muriel L. Muriel 54' F 6.60
Bench
38 Andrés Schmalbach Andrés Schmalbach M
19 Daniel Socarras Daniel Socarras D
3 E. Herrera E. Herrera 36' D 6.20
9 G. Paiva G. Paiva 36' F 6.20
22 Jesús Rivas Jesús Rivas 43' M 6.30
30 J. Martínez J. Martínez G
21 Joel Canchimbo Joel Canchimbo 21' F 6.30
33 L. Monzón L. Monzón D
29 T. Gutiérrez T. Gutiérrez 1' F
Best on the pitch
E. Cardona
E. Cardona
M · Atletico
9.20
1 ⚽
4 shots · 24 pass
W. Tesillo
W. Tesillo
D · Atletico
8.30
3 shots · 67 pass
César Haydar
César Haydar
D · Atletico
8.20
1 shots · 43 pass
Jermein Peña
Jermein Peña
D · Junior
7.90
· 12 pass
J. Campuzano
J. Campuzano
M · Atletico
7.90
1 shots · 54 pass
D. Rivera
D. Rivera
D · Junior
7.50
· 12 pass
Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Harlen Castillo G 90 7.30 — — — 27 23% — — —
M. Casco D 90 7.20 — — 2 43 34% — — —
W. Tesillo D 90 8.30 — — 3 67 57% 2 — —
César Haydar D 90 8.20 — — 1 43 40% 1 — —
A. Román D 73 7.00 — — — 20 12% 2 — —
Matheus Uribe M 73 6.60 — — 1 24 18% 1 — —
J. Campuzano M 90 7.90 — — 1 54 48% 1 — —
A. Sarmiento M 90 6.60 — 1 1 20 12% — — —
J. Rengifo M 65 6.30 — — 2 25 17% — — —
Nicolás Rodríguez M 45 6.90 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
A. Morelos F 84 6.20 — — 4 24 18% — — —
C. Arango F 17 6.50 — — — 5 2% — — —
D. Asprilla F 15 6.70 — — — 3 2% — — —
E. Cardona M 45 9.20 1 — 4 24 19% 2 — —
J. Zapata M 24 6.50 — — — 10 10% — 1 1
M. Moreno F 25 6.60 — — 1 6 6% 1 1 —
Junior Junior — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Silveira G 90 6.20 — — — 34 9% 1 — —
Y. Súarez D 90 6.90 — — — 17 10% 2 — —
D. Rivera D 90 7.50 — — — 12 9% 2 — —
Jermein Peña D 90 7.90 — — — 12 5% 2 — —
Jhonier Guerrero D 89 6.50 — — — 20 14% 1 1 —
J. Ríos M 90 6.20 — — — 16 10% 1 1 —
F. Ángel M 90 7.20 — — — 15 12% 3 — —
B. Castrillón M 69 6.70 — — 3 11 9% — — —
J. Sarmiento M 54 6.90 — — — 15 11% — — —
C. Barrios M 54 6.60 — — — 11 7% — — —
L. Muriel F 54 6.60 — — — 10 8% 1 — —
E. Herrera D 36 6.20 — — — 6 5% — — —
G. Paiva F 36 6.20 — — 1 11 8% — 1 —
Jesús Rivas M 43 6.30 — — — 5 4% — — 1
Joel Canchimbo F 21 6.30 — — 2 1 1% — — —
T. Gutiérrez F 1 — — — — 1 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Junior?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 1–0 Junior.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Junior?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 21% to a draw, and 18% to an Junior win.