✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Nacional
E. Cardona
(ast. A. Sarmiento)
56'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 59% win probability (draw 21%, Junior 18%). The final result was Atletico Nacional 1–0 Junior. In 3 previous meetings, Atletico Nacional have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Junior.
Match statistics
20
Total shots
6
4
Shots on target
3
2.43
Actual xG
0.41
3
Saves
3
69%
Possession
31%
13
Corners
5
11
Tackles
13
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
1
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
31'
K. Catano
38'
N. Rodriguez
/ E. Cardona
46'
54'
E. Herrera
/
L. Muriel
54'
G. Paiva
/
C. Barrios
54'
J. Rivas
/
J. Sarmiento
⚽E. Cardona
· ast. A. Sarmiento
56'
58'
J. Rios
⚽A. Morelos
(missed pen.)
64'
J. Rengifo
/ M. Moreno
65'
69'
J. Canchimbo
/
B. Castrillon
M. Uribe
/ J. Zapata
73'
A. Roman
/ C. Arango
73'
77'
J. Guerrero
A. Morelos
/ D. Asprilla
84'
M. Moreno
90'+5
90'+5
T. Gutierrez
/
J. Guerrero
J. Zapata
90'+8
90'+8
90'
G. Paiva
Pre-match prediction
59.27%
Atletico ←
21.92%
X
18.81%
Junior
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
59.27%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.78
2.43
+0.65
0.88
0.41
-0.47
Atletico Nacional dominated by xG (2.43 vs 0.41).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
15
H. Castillo
G
H. Castillo
G
20
Milton Casco
D
Milton Casco
D
16
William Tesillo
D
William Tesillo
D
4
César Haydar
D
César Haydar
D
6
Andrés Román
73'
D
Andrés Román
73'
D
8
Matheus Uribe
73'
M
Matheus Uribe
73'
M
21
Jorman Campuzano
M
Jorman Campuzano
M
29
Andrés Sarmiento
1 👟
M
Andrés Sarmiento
1 👟
M
19
Juan Manuel Rengifo
65'
M
Juan Manuel Rengifo
65'
M
13
Nicolás Rodríguez
45'
M
Nicolás Rodríguez
45'
M
9
Alfredo Morelos
84'
F
Alfredo Morelos
84'
F
Bench
14
Andres Marin
D
Andres Marin
D
17
C. Arango
17'
F
C. Arango
17'
F
27
D. Asprilla
15'
F
D. Asprilla
15'
F
10
Edwin Cardona
1 ⚽
45'
M
Edwin Cardona
1 ⚽
45'
M
80
Juan Zapata
24'
M
Juan Zapata
24'
M
44
Kevin Cataño
G
Kevin Cataño
G
7
M. Moreno
25'
F
M. Moreno
25'
F
3
Neider Parra
D
Neider Parra
D
31
Xavi Rios
M
Xavi Rios
M
1
Mauro Silveira
G
Mauro Silveira
G
26
Yeison Suárez
D
Yeison Suárez
D
5
Daniel Rivera
D
Daniel Rivera
D
98
Jermein Peña
D
Jermein Peña
D
34
Jhonier Guerrero
89'
D
Jhonier Guerrero
89'
D
14
Juan David Ríos
M
Juan David Ríos
M
80
Fabián Ángel
M
Fabián Ángel
M
88
Bryan Castrillón
69'
M
Bryan Castrillón
69'
M
20
J. Sarmiento
54'
M
J. Sarmiento
54'
M
77
Cristian Barrios
54'
M
Cristian Barrios
54'
M
10
Luis Muriel
54'
F
Luis Muriel
54'
F
Bench
38
Andrés Schmalbach
M
Andrés Schmalbach
M
19
Daniel Socarras
D
Daniel Socarras
D
3
E. Herrera
36'
D
E. Herrera
36'
D
9
Guillermo Paiva
36'
F
Guillermo Paiva
36'
F
30
Jefersson Martínez
G
Jefersson Martínez
G
22
Jesús Rivas
43'
M
Jesús Rivas
43'
M
21
Joel Canchimbo
21'
F
Joel Canchimbo
21'
F
33
L. Monzón
D
L. Monzón
D
29
T. Gutiérrez
1'
F
T. Gutiérrez
1'
F
Best on the pitch
Edwin Cardona
M · Atletico
9.20
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 24 pass
William Tesillo
D · Atletico
8.30
3 shots
· 67 pass
César Haydar
D · Atletico
8.20
1 shots
· 43 pass
Jermein Peña
D · Junior
7.90
· 12 pass
Jorman Campuzano
M · Atletico
7.90
1 shots
· 54 pass
Daniel Rivera
D · Junior
7.50
· 12 pass
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Castillo | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Milton Casco | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 34% | — | — | — |
| William Tesillo | D | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | 3 | 67 | 57% | 2 | — | — |
| César Haydar | D | 90 | 8.20 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| Andrés Román | D | 73 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 20 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Matheus Uribe | M | 73 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorman Campuzano | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| Andrés Sarmiento | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 20 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Juan Manuel Rengifo | M | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Rodríguez | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Alfredo Morelos | F | 84 | 6.20 | — | — | 4 | 24 | 18% | — | — | — |
| C. Arango | F | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| D. Asprilla | F | 15 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Edwin Cardona | M | 45 | 9.20 | 1 | — | 4 | 24 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Juan Zapata | M | 24 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | 1 | 1 |
| M. Moreno | F | 25 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 6% | 1 | 1 | — |
Junior — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Silveira | G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Yeison Suárez | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| Daniel Rivera | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Jermein Peña | D | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| Jhonier Guerrero | D | 89 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Juan David Ríos | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Fabián Ángel | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Bryan Castrillón | M | 69 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| J. Sarmiento | M | 54 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Barrios | M | 54 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Luis Muriel | F | 54 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Herrera | D | 36 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Guillermo Paiva | F | 36 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| Jesús Rivas | M | 43 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | 1 |
| Joel Canchimbo | F | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| T. Gutiérrez | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Junior?
The final score was Atletico Nacional 1–0 Junior.
What did the model predict before Atletico Nacional vs Junior?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Atletico Nacional win, 21% to a draw, and 18% to an Junior win.