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Atletico Nacional - Santa Fe

Liga BetPlay October 30, 2026 02:30 Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin
Atletico Nacional
#1 · 40 pts
vs
Santa Fe
#7 · 29 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
60.44%
Win
Atletico Nacional
20.28%
Draw
19.28%
Win
Santa Fe
2.03
Expected xG
1.02
Most likely outcome
Atletico Nacional
60.44%
Probability
53.7%
1X2 accuracy · 41 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (10.06%)
1X2 Result
1 60%
X 20%
2 19%
Double Chance
1X 81%
X2 40%
12 80%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
✓ 58.6% hit rate (29 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Atletico Nacional a 60% win probability, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Santa Fe. Expected goals are 2.0 for Atletico Nacional and 1.0 for Santa Fe (total 3.1), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 10.06% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Atletico Nacional have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Santa Fe.

Season Stats

Atletico Nacional
11W 1D 3L
Santa Fe
6W 7D 2L
Averages per game
2.1
Goals
1.7
1.0
Conceded
0.9
6.4
Shots OT
4.6
6.5
Corners
4.5
61%
Poss.
46%
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
73%
60%
O 2.5
47%
53%
BTTS
60%
27%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Liga BetPlay. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
70%
BTTS
Atletico Nacional
8W 2D 0L · at home
Santa Fe
3W 6D 1L · away
2.3
gls/g
1.5
0.5
Conceded
1.1
80%
Win %
30%
100%
Win or Draw
90%
80%
O 1.5
90%
50%
O 2.5
50%
20%
O 3.5
20%
50%
BTTS
90%
50%
Clean Sht
10%
10%
Failed to Score
10%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Atletico Nacional Santa Fe →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.7% 4.8% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% —
1 9.6% 9.8% 5.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.7% 10.0% 5.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
3 6.6% 6.7% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
4 3.3% 3.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% —
5 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% —

Recent form

Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
D Millonarios 1–1
L Llaneros 2–0
W Internacional de Bogota 2–3
W Águilas Doradas 2–0
W Alianza Valledupar 1–5
Home clean sheet (120 days) 26%
Santa Fe Santa Fe
L Deportivo Cali 0–1
W Alianza Valledupar 1–4
W Deportes Tolima 1–0
D Fortaleza FC 2–2
W Millonarios 3–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 22%

Playing profile

Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional
Attack
50
Defence
70
Form
64
Santa Fe Santa Fe
Attack
43
Defence
71
Form
60
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Atletico Nacional
0
Draw
0
Santa Fe
26 Feb 2026 Liga BetPlay 2–1

Apertura

# Team G Pts
1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 19 40
2 Junior Junior 19 35
3 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 19 34
4 America de Cali America de Cali 19 33
5 Once Caldas Once Caldas 19 33
6 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 19 31
7 Santa Fe Santa Fe 19 29
8 Internacional de Bogota Internacional de Bogota 19 28
9 Deportivo Cali Deportivo Cali 19 27
10 Millonarios Millonarios 19 26
11 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 19 26
12 Águilas Doradas Águilas Doradas 19 26
13 Bucaramanga Bucaramanga 19 23
14 Llaneros Llaneros 19 22
15 Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 19 22
16 Jaguares Jaguares 19 18
17 Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 19 17
18 Chico Chico 19 17
19 Cucuta Cucuta 19 16
20 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 19 10

What's at stake · Apertura

Top 2 advance to the next round

Atletico Nacional Santa Fe
Current #1 #7
→ Atletico Nacional #1 #7
→ Draw #1 #7
→ Santa Fe #1 #6

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?
The model gives Atletico Nacional a 60% win probability, 20% for a draw, and 19% for an Santa Fe win.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?
Expected goals: Atletico Nacional 2.0, Santa Fe 1.0 (total 3.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.06%.