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← Brasileirão Série A
Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 28 September 21, 2026 00:30 Arena da Baixada, Curitiba
Atletico Paranaense
#3 · 49 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Bahia
#5 · 46 pts
Lucas Esquivel (ast. Kerwin Vargas) 16'
jorge rivaldo (ast. Kerwin Vargas) 69'
26' erick pulga
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Paranaense a 48% win probability (draw 20%, Bahia 30%). The final result was Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia. In 1 previous meetings, Atletico Paranaense have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bahia.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
3
2
Saves
4
60%
Possession
40%
6
Corners
3
10
Tackles
17
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽Lucas Esquivel · ast. Kerwin Vargas
16'
26'
erick pulga⚽
30'
Nicolas Acevedo
Juan Aguirre
38'
Arthur Dias
45'
↕ Leonardo Caetano Silva / jorge rivaldo
45'
↕ Juan Aguirre / Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio
45'
64'
Jean Lucas / Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho ↕
64'
Kauê Furquim / Ademir ↕
⚽jorge rivaldo · ast. Kerwin Vargas
69'
73'
Caio Alexandre / Nicolas Acevedo ↕
74'
Kauê Furquim
↕ Kerwin Vargas / Bruno Zapelli
79'
↕ Gilberto / Gilberto Junior
80'
85'
Everaldo Stum / Alejo Veliz ↕
85'
Rodrigo Nestor
85'
Éverton Ribeiro / Rodrigo Nestor ↕
jorge rivaldo
89'
90'+1
90'+5
(missed pen.) Everaldo Stum⚽
Odair Hellmann
90'+6
Odair Hellmann
90'
Pre-match prediction
48.86%
Atletico ←
20.41%
X
30.73%
Bahia
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Paranaense) 48.86% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Atletico
2.20
—
—
Bahia
1.75
—
—
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Flamengo Flamengo 28 60
2 Palmeiras Palmeiras 28 57
3 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 28 49
4 Fluminense Fluminense 28 48
5 Bahia Bahia 28 46
6 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 28 45
7 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 27 40
8 Santos Santos 27 38
9 Coritiba Coritiba 28 38
10 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 27 36
11 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 27 36
12 Botafogo Botafogo 28 35
13 Vitoria Vitoria 28 33
14 Corinthians Corinthians 28 32
15 Mirassol Mirassol 28 32
16 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 27 31
17 Gremio Gremio 28 29
18 Internacional Internacional 28 28
19 Remo Remo 28 23
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 27 18
Lineups
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
1 Mycael Mycael G 6.90
4 Arthur Dias Arthur Dias D 6.60
33 J. Aguirre J. Aguirre 45' D 6.21
25 Dantas Dantas D 6.74
37 L. Esquivel L. Esquivel 1 ⚽ M 8.20
14 Luiz Gustavo Luiz Gustavo M 6.48
16 Jádson Jádson M 7.13
12 Gilberto Gilberto 80' M 6.14
7 S. Mendoza S. Mendoza M 6.48
21 Leozinho Leozinho 45' M 5.96
18 K. Vargas K. Vargas 2 👟 79' F 8.14
Bench
10 B. Zapelli B. Zapelli 11' M 6.44
47 Chiqueti Chiqueti M 0.00
22 C. Terán C. Terán D 0.00
6 Derik Derik D 0.00
53 Dudu Dudu 45' M 6.23
5 Felipinho Felipinho D 0.00
2 Gilberto Gilberto 10' D 6.37
19 Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.47
27 J. Portilla J. Portilla M 0.00
3 Léo Léo D 0.00
70 Renan Renan F 0.00
23 Santos Santos G 0.00
Bahia Bahia 4-3-3
1 Ronaldo Ronaldo G 7.12
46 Luciano Juba Luciano Juba D 6.83
4 Kanu Kanu D 6.71
33 David Duarte David Duarte D 6.77
44 Marcos Victor Marcos Victor D 6.42
11 Rodrigo Nestor Rodrigo Nestor 85' M 6.88
5 N. Acevedo N. Acevedo 73' M 5.86
14 Erick Erick 64' M 6.10
16 Erick Pulga Erick Pulga 1 ⚽ F 7.58
9 A. Véliz A. Véliz 85' F 6.33
7 Ademir Ademir 64' F 6.10
Bench
57 Çağatay Yılmaz Çağatay Yılmaz 26' F 6.18
8 Caio Alexandre Caio Alexandre 17' M 6.50
27 Everaldo Everaldo 5' F 6.30
10 Éverton Ribeiro Éverton Ribeiro 5' M 5.96
17 G. Herrera G. Herrera G 0.00
6 Jean Lucas Jean Lucas 26' M 5.98
3 Marco Moreno Marco Moreno D 0.00
23 M. Sanabria M. Sanabria F 0.00
31 Roman Gomez Roman Gomez D 0.00
77 Ruan Pablo Ruan Pablo F 0.00
12 Willian José Willian José F 0.00
66 Zé Guilherme Zé Guilherme D 0.00
Best on the pitch
L. Esquivel
L. Esquivel
M · Atletico
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 63 pass
K. Vargas
K. Vargas
F · Atletico
8.14
2 👟
1 shots · 27 pass
Erick Pulga
Erick Pulga
F · Bahia
7.58
1 ⚽
1 shots · 23 pass
Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto
Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto
F · Atletico
7.47
1 ⚽
1 shots · 6 pass
Jádson
Jádson
M · Atletico
7.13
· 61 pass
Ronaldo
Ronaldo
G · Bahia
7.12
· 27 pass
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Mycael G 90 6.90 — — 0 24 19% 0 — —
Arthur Dias D 90 6.60 — — 0 60 54% 4 1 —
J. Aguirre D 45 6.21 — — 1 23 22% 0 1 —
Dantas D 90 6.74 — — 2 53 49% 0 — —
L. Esquivel M 90 8.20 1 — 1 63 56% 4 — —
Luiz Gustavo M 90 6.48 — — 0 52 49% 0 — —
Jádson M 90 7.13 — — 0 61 55% 1 — —
Gilberto M 80 6.14 — — 0 44 35% 0 — —
S. Mendoza M 90 6.48 — — 3 43 36% 0 — —
Leozinho M 45 5.96 — — 1 17 12% 0 — —
K. Vargas F 79 8.14 — 2 1 27 24% 0 — —
B. Zapelli M 11 6.44 — — 0 5 5% 1 — —
Dudu M 45 6.23 — — 1 12 7% 0 — —
Gilberto D 10 6.37 — — 0 1 1% 0 — —
Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto F 45 7.47 1 — 1 6 3% 0 1 —
Bahia Bahia — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Ronaldo G 90 7.12 — — 0 27 24% 0 — —
Luciano Juba D 90 6.83 — — 0 72 63% 2 — —
Kanu D 90 6.71 — — 0 73 67% 1 — —
David Duarte D 90 6.77 — — 2 59 56% 1 — —
Marcos Victor D 90 6.42 — — 0 48 40% 4 — —
Rodrigo Nestor M 85 6.88 — — 2 42 36% 2 1 —
N. Acevedo M 73 5.86 — — 0 52 43% 3 1 —
Erick M 64 6.10 — — 1 26 22% 2 — —
Erick Pulga F 90 7.58 1 — 1 23 21% 0 — —
A. Véliz F 85 6.33 — — 2 22 18% 0 — —
Ademir F 64 6.10 — — 0 11 9% 0 — —
Çağatay Yılmaz F 26 6.18 — — 0 5 5% 2 1 —
Caio Alexandre M 17 6.50 — — 0 31 31% 0 — —
Everaldo F 5 6.30 — — 2 0 0% 0 — —
Éverton Ribeiro M 5 5.96 — — 0 7 5% 0 — —
Jean Lucas M 26 5.98 — — 0 18 16% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
The final score was Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia.
What did the model predict before Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Atletico Paranaense win, 20% to a draw, and 30% to an Bahia win.