Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 5
March 30, 2026 02:30
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Paranaense a 46% win probability (draw 26%, Botafogo 26%). The final result was Atletico Paranaense 4–1 Botafogo.
Match statistics
8
Shots on target
3
1.42
Actual xG
0.81
46%
Possession
54%
1
Corners
8
Pre-match prediction
46.27%
Atletico ←
26.91%
X
26.81%
Botafogo
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Paranaense)
46.27%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.28
1.42
-0.86
0.72
0.81
+0.09
Atletico Paranaense dominated by xG (1.42 vs 0.81).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
The final score was Atletico Paranaense 4–1 Botafogo.
What did the model predict before Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Atletico Paranaense win, 26% to a draw, and 26% to an Botafogo win.