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Atletico Torque - Penarol

Primera División October 01, 2026 01:00 Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
Atletico Torque
#1 · 15 pts
vs
Penarol
#1 · 16 pts
Weather at kick-off 🌦️ Light drizzle 11.7°C 💨 46 km/h · Montevideo
⚡ Pre-match analysis
29.28%
Win
Atletico Torque
24.6%
Draw
46.12%
Win
Penarol
1.08
Expected xG
1.57

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–1 (11.71%)
1X2 Result ✓ 60.9% hit rate (23 picks)
1 29%
X 25%
2 46%
Double Chance ✓ 87.0% hit rate (23 picks)
1X 54%
X2 71%
12 75%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 47%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Penarol a 46% win probability, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Atletico Torque. Expected goals are 1.1 for Atletico Torque and 1.6 for Penarol (total 2.6), with a 69% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 11.71% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Atletico Torque have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Penarol.

Season Stats

Atletico Torque
11W 1D 3L
Penarol
11W 2D 2L
Averages per game
2.1
Goals
2.1
1.2
Conceded
0.7
Percentages
87%
O 1.5
73%
73%
O 2.5
60%
80%
BTTS
47%
13%
Clean Sht
40%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Primera División. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
30%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Atletico Torque
6W 0D 4L · at home
Penarol
7W 2D 1L · away
2.0
gls/g
1.7
1.4
Conceded
0.5
60%
Win %
70%
60%
Win or Draw
90%
80%
O 1.5
70%
70%
O 2.5
30%
40%
O 3.5
20%
70%
BTTS
30%
10%
Clean Sht
60%
20%
Failed to Score
20%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Atletico Torque Penarol →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.1% 11.1% 8.7% 4.6% 1.8% 0.6%
1 7.6% 12.0% 9.4% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6%
2 4.1% 6.5% 5.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3%
3 1.5% 2.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% —
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Atletico Torque Atletico Torque
W Liverpool Montevideo 3–1
W Cerro Largo 2–1
W Defensor Sporting 1–3
W Wanderers 5–1
W Juventud 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 26%
Penarol Penarol
W Cerro 1–2
W Albion FC 3–1
W Danubio 0–4
L Club Nacional 0–1
D Deportivo Maldonado 0–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 42%

Playing profile

Atletico Torque Atletico Torque
Attack
55
Defence
78
Form
75
Penarol Penarol
Attack
59
Defence
87
Form
74
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Atletico Torque
0
Draw
1
Penarol
8 Feb 2026 Primera División 1–3

Primera: Clausura

# Team G Pts
1 Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 5 15
2 Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 6 13
3 Cerro Cerro 7 13
4 Penarol Penarol 6 12
5 Juventud Juventud 7 12
6 Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 6 11
7 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 7 11
8 Club Nacional Club Nacional 7 11
9 Wanderers Wanderers 7 9
10 Progreso Progreso 7 9
11 Boston River Boston River 7 8
12 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 7 5
13 Central Espanol Central Espanol 6 5
14 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 7 5
15 Danubio Danubio 7 4
16 Albion FC Albion FC 7 0

What's at stake · Primera: Clausura

Top 2 advance to the next round

Atletico Torque Penarol
Current #1 #1
→ Atletico Torque #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #3
→ Penarol #1 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
The model gives Atletico Torque a 29% win probability, 24% for a draw, and 46% for an Penarol win.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
Expected goals: Atletico Torque 1.1, Penarol 1.6 (total 2.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 69%.
What is the most likely score in Atletico Torque vs Penarol?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.71%.