← National 1

Aubagne - Caen

National 1 May 15, 2026 19:30
#12 · 34 pts
vs
#8 · 40 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 16.4°C 💨 22 km/h · Aubagne
⚡ Pre-match analysis
16.98%
Win
Aubagne
29.43%
Draw
53.59%
Win
Caen
0.62
Expected xG
1.55

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Caen a 53% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 16% for Aubagne. Expected goals are 0.6 for Aubagne and 1.5 for Caen (total 2.2), with a 70% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 17.7% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Aubagne have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Caen.

Score Matrix
↕ Aubagne Caen →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.4% 17.7% 13.7% 7.1% 2.7% 0.8%
1 7.1% 11.0% 8.5% 4.4% 1.7% 0.5%
2 2.2% 3.4% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
3 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
5
Recent form
D Gobelins 1–1
L Stade Briochin 1–2
L Rouen 3–1
L Orleans 0–2
W Le Puy Foot 1–2
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 19%
D Concarneau 0–0
W Villefranche 3–0
W Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–2
W Gobelins 0–3
D Stade Briochin 1–1
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 26%
Playing profile
Aubagne Aubagne
Attack
22
Defence
57
Form
32
Caen Caen
Attack
35
Defence
89
Form
58
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Aubagne
0
Draw
1
Caen
L 8 Aug 2025 National 1 0–3
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Dijon Dijon 31 62
2 Sochaux Sochaux 31 57
3 Fleury 91 Fleury 91 31 54
4 Rouen Rouen 31 52
5 Versailles Versailles 31 52
6 Orleans Orleans 31 51
7 Le Puy Foot Le Puy Foot 31 46
8 Caen Caen 31 40
9 Concarneau Concarneau 31 37
10 Valenciennes Valenciennes 31 36
11 Villefranche Villefranche 31 36
12 Aubagne Aubagne 31 34
13 Gobelins Gobelins 31 32
14 Bourg-en-bresse 01 Bourg-en-bresse 01 32 31
15 Quevilly Quevilly 31 30
16 Chateauroux Chateauroux 31 29
17 Stade Briochin Stade Briochin 31 26
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Aubagne vs Caen?
The model gives Aubagne a 16% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 53% for an Caen win.
How many goals are expected in Aubagne vs Caen?
Expected goals: Aubagne 0.6, Caen 1.5 (total 2.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 70%.
What is the most likely score in Aubagne vs Caen?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 17.7%.