MLS
· Regular Season - 21
August 23, 2026 03:00
B. Hines-Ike
(ast. J. Rosales)
21'
18'
(ast. N. Harriel)
C. Sullivan
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Philadelphia Union a 49% win probability (draw 24%, Austin 25%). The final result was Austin 1–1 Philadelphia Union.
Match statistics
6
Shots on target
3
1.27
Actual xG
0.99
55%
Possession
45%
6
Corners
6
Match Events
18'
ast. N. Harriel ·
C. Sullivan⚽
⚽B. Hines-Ike
· ast. J. Rosales
21'
38'
J. Bueno
41'
N. Pierre
57'
Q. Sullivan
/
I. Vassilev
57'
J. Lukic
/
J. Bueno
J. Alastuey
/ F. Torres
63'
C. Ramirez
/ B. Vazquez
63'
J. Rosales
/ P. Placheta
72'
B. Hines-Ike
/ M. Desler
72'
74'
A. Anello
/
C. Sullivan
74'
E. Alladoh
/
B. Damiani
J. Gallagher
/ Z. Kolmanic
84'
90'+3
A. Bedoya
/
M. Iloski
E. Torres
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
25.73%
Austin
24.62%
X ←
49.65%
Philadelphia
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
24.62%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.90
1.27
+0.37
1.57
0.99
-0.58
xG dominance was balanced (1.27 – 0.99).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Austin vs Philadelphia Union?
The final score was Austin 1–1 Philadelphia Union.
What did the model predict before Austin vs Philadelphia Union?
The model assigned 25% probability to a Austin win, 24% to a draw, and 49% to an Philadelphia Union win.