Brasileirão Série B
· Regular Season - 14
June 21, 2026 16:00
Jean Lucas
(ast. Sorriso)
31'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cuiaba a 44% win probability (draw 28%, Avai 26%). The final result was Avai 1–0 Cuiaba.
Match statistics
2
Shots on target
7
0.52
Actual xG
0.69
40%
Possession
60%
1
Corners
13
Match Events
⚽Jean Lucas
· ast. Sorriso
31'
46'
Kauan Cristtyan
/
Vinicius Peixoto
Joao Maistro
/ Guilherme Aquino
52'
Sorriso
/ DG
54'
Leo Gamalho
54'
57'
Marlon
62'
Luiz Otavio
/
David Miguel
Leo Gamalho
/ Walace Franca
66'
William
/ Wenderson
66'
Jean Lucas
69'
73'
Victor Barbara
/
Calebe Costa
73'
Weverson
/
Pepe
Thayllon
/ Jamerson
79'
Luiz Henrique
/ Paulo Vitor
79'
80'
Eric Melo
/
Marlon
81'
Marcos Junior
/
Vitor Mendes
Cauan de Almeida
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
26.84%
Avai ←
28.22%
X
44.94%
Cuiaba
we assigned to the actual result (Avai)
26.84%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.75
0.52
-0.23
1.46
0.69
-0.77
xG dominance was balanced (0.52 – 0.69).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Avai vs Cuiaba?
The final score was Avai 1–0 Cuiaba.
What did the model predict before Avai vs Cuiaba?
The model assigned 26% probability to a Avai win, 28% to a draw, and 44% to an Cuiaba win.