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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 33 May 10, 2026 19:00 Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Vila das Aves
AVS
#18 · 21 pts
3 – 1
Final score
FC Porto
#1 · 88 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction FC Porto, result AVS wins
Roni 23'
Roni (ast. G. Neiva) 58'
A. Santos (ast. T. Akinsola) 80'
53' (ast. B. Sainz) D. Gul
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 66% win probability (draw 19%, AVS 13%). The final result was AVS 3–1 FC Porto. In 1 previous meetings, AVS have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for FC Porto.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
10
5
Shots on target
4
0.75
Actual xG
3.06
4
Saves
2
31%
Possession
69%
3
Corners
7
20
Tackles
8
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽Roni
23'
↕ Mateus Pivo / T. Galletto
49'
53'
ast. B. Sainz · D. Gul⚽
⚽Roni · ast. G. Neiva
58'
Roni
59'
59'
V. Froholdt / S. Fofana ↕
59'
William Gomes / B. Sainz ↕
61'
D. Prpic
68'
O. Pietuszewski / Pepe ↕
68'
T. Silva / A. Varela ↕
↕ G. Neiva / Tomane
68'
76'
↕ G. Mendonca / A. Santos
77'
⚽A. Santos · ast. T. Akinsola
80'
81'
G. Veiga / R. Mora ↕
Pedro Lima
85'
90'+2
D. Prpic
90'+2
D. Prpic
Pre-match prediction
13.46%
AVS ←
19.7%
X
66.84%
FC
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (AVS) 13.46% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
AVS
0.70
0.75
+0.05
FC
1.90
3.06
+1.16
FC Porto dominated by xG (3.06 vs 0.75). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 34 88
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 34 82
3 Benfica Benfica 34 80
4 SC Braga SC Braga 34 59
5 Famalicao Famalicao 34 56
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 34 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 34 43
8 Arouca Arouca 34 42
9 Guimaraes Guimaraes 34 42
10 Estoril Estoril 34 39
11 Alverca Alverca 34 39
12 Rio Ave Rio Ave 34 36
13 Santa Clara Santa Clara 34 36
14 Nacional Nacional 34 34
15 Estrela Estrela 34 30
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 34 30
17 Tondela Tondela 34 28
18 AVS AVS 34 21
Lineups
AVS AVS 4-3-3
1 Adriel Adriel G 7.30
12 Daniel Rivas Daniel Rivas D 7.00
3 Paulo Vitor Paulo Vitor D 7.20
42 C. Devenish C. Devenish D 7.30
97 Mateus Pivô Mateus Pivô 49' D 7.00
70 Roni Roni 2 ⚽ M 9.20
8 Pedro Lima Pedro Lima M 6.90
23 Gustavo Mendonca Gustavo Mendonca 76' M 6.90
21 Guilherme Neiva Guilherme Neiva 1 👟 68' F 6.20
20 Diego Duarte Diego Duarte F 6.90
11 Tunde Akinsola Tunde Akinsola 1 👟 F 7.90
Bench
33 Aderllan Santos Aderllan Santos 1 ⚽ 16' D 7.90
25 Andre Green Andre Green F
27 Ángel Algobia Ángel Algobia M
14 Óscar Perea Óscar Perea F
88 Pedro Trigueira Pedro Trigueira G
26 Ponck Ponck D
93 Simão Simão G
19 T. Galletto T. Galletto 43' M 6.60
7 Tomané Tomané 24' F 6.70
FC Porto FC Porto 4-2-3-1
14 Cláudio Ramos Cláudio Ramos G 6.20
74 Francisco Moura Francisco Moura D 6.90
21 Dominik Prpić Dominik Prpić D 6.30
3 Thiago Silva Thiago Silva D 6.60
20 Alberto Baio Alberto Baio D 6.20
42 S. Fofana S. Fofana 59' M 6.30
22 A. Varela A. Varela 68' M 6.30
17 Borja Sainz Borja Sainz 1 👟 59' M 6.90
86 Rodrigo Mora Rodrigo Mora 81' M 6.00
11 Pepê Aquino Pepê Aquino 68' M 6.90
27 D. Gül D. Gül 1 ⚽ F 7.20
Bench
99 Diogo Costa Diogo Costa G
10 Gabri Veiga Gabri Veiga 11' M 7.00
4
Jakub Kiwior D
77
Oskar Pietuszewski 24' F 6.20
13
Pablo Rosario M
29 Terem Moffi Terem Moffi F
58
Tiago Silva 24' M 6.60
8 Victor Mow Froholdt Victor Mow Froholdt 33' M 6.20
7 William William 33' F 6.70
Best on the pitch
Roni
Roni
M · AVS
9.20
2 ⚽
2 shots · 29 pass
Aderllan Santos
Aderllan Santos
D · AVS
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
Tunde Akinsola
Tunde Akinsola
F · AVS
7.90
1 👟
· 14 pass
Adriel
Adriel
G · AVS
7.30
· 34 pass
C. Devenish
C. Devenish
D · AVS
7.30
· 24 pass
Paulo Vitor
Paulo Vitor
D · AVS
7.20
1 shots · 26 pass
AVS AVS — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Adriel G 92 7.30 — — — 34 8% — — —
Daniel Rivas D 92 7.00 — — — 21 17% 3 — —
Paulo Vitor D 92 7.20 — — 1 26 25% 3 — —
C. Devenish D 92 7.30 — — — 24 19% 1 — —
Mateus Pivô D 49 7.00 — — — 8 6% 1 — —
Roni M 92 9.20 2 — 2 29 24% 2 1 —
Pedro Lima M 92 6.90 — — 1 29 21% 1 1 —
Gustavo Mendonca M 76 6.90 — — — 17 11% 5 — —
Guilherme Neiva F 68 6.20 — 1 — 15 10% 1 — —
Diego Duarte F 92 6.90 — — 2 17 6% 1 — —
Tunde Akinsola F 92 7.90 — 1 — 14 11% — — —
Aderllan Santos D 16 7.90 1 — 1 — — — — —
T. Galletto M 43 6.60 — — — 6 4% 2 — —
Tomané F 24 6.70 — — — 7 5% — — —
FC Porto FC Porto — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Cláudio Ramos G 92 6.20 — — — 25 21% — — —
Francisco Moura D 92 6.90 — — — 41 32% 3 — —
Dominik Prpić D 92 6.30 — — — 107 95% 1 2 1
Thiago Silva D 92 6.60 — — 1 86 81% — — —
Alberto Baio D 92 6.20 — — 1 44 36% 2 — —
S. Fofana M 59 6.30 — — — 28 24% — — —
A. Varela M 68 6.30 — — — 51 43% — — —
Borja Sainz M 59 6.90 — 1 2 28 25% — — —
Rodrigo Mora M 81 6.00 — — 3 19 15% 1 — —
Pepê Aquino M 68 6.90 — — — 32 24% — — —
D. Gül F 92 7.20 1 — 2 7 3% — — —
Gabri Veiga M 11 7.00 — — 1 6 4% — — —
Oskar Pietuszewski F 24 6.20 — — — 14 11% — — —
Tiago Silva M 24 6.60 — — — 27 25% 1 — —
Victor Mow Froholdt M 33 6.20 — — — 11 10% — — —
William F 33 6.70 — — — 14 9% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of AVS vs FC Porto?
The final score was AVS 3–1 FC Porto.
What did the model predict before AVS vs FC Porto?
The model assigned 13% probability to a AVS win, 19% to a draw, and 66% to an FC Porto win.