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Ayr Utd - Stenhousemuir

Scottish Championship September 25, 2026 20:45 Somerset Park, Ayr
Ayr Utd
#6 · 8 pts
vs
Stenhousemuir
#1 · 19 pts
Weather at kick-off 🌤️ Mainly clear 12.9°C 💨 14 km/h 🌧️ 32% · Ayr
⚡ Pre-match analysis
30.33%
Win
Ayr Utd
30.67%
Draw
39.0%
Win
Stenhousemuir
0.79
Expected xG
1.26

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–1 (14.72%)
1X2 Result
1 30%
X 31%
2 39%
Double Chance
1X 61%
X2 70%
12 69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 44%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Stenhousemuir a 39% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Ayr Utd. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ayr Utd and 1.3 for Stenhousemuir (total 2.0), with a 72% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 14.72% probability.

Season Stats

Ayr Utd
3W 3D 9L
Stenhousemuir
7W 3D 1L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
1.4
1.4
Conceded
0.6
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
64%
33%
O 2.5
18%
40%
BTTS
45%
20%
Clean Sht
45%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Scottish Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
15%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Ayr Utd
2W 3D 5L · at home
Stenhousemuir
3W 2D 0L · away
0.7
gls/g
1.6
1.2
Conceded
0.6
20%
Win %
60%
50%
Win or Draw
100%
60%
O 1.5
80%
30%
O 2.5
20%
10%
O 3.5
20%
40%
BTTS
60%
30%
Clean Sht
40%
40%
Failed to Score
0%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.9% 16.3% 10.2% 4.3% 1.4% 0.3%
1 10.2% 12.8% 8.1% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
2 4.0% 5.0% 3.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% —
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Ayr Utd Ayr Utd
W Queen's Park 0–2
L Inverness CT 1–3
L Partick 1–0
D Morton 1–1
L Raith Rovers 2–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 39%
Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir
W Arbroath 1–0
W Partick 1–0
W Livingston 0–1
W Inverness CT 3–1
W Queen's Park 0–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 40%

Playing profile

Ayr Utd Ayr Utd
Attack
21
Defence
66
Form
39
Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir
Attack
34
Defence
85
Form
66
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Stenhousemuir Stenhousemuir 7 19
2 Raith Rovers Raith Rovers 7 14
3 Partick Partick 7 12
4 Dunfermline Dunfermline 7 12
5 Livingston Livingston 7 10
6 Ayr Utd Ayr Utd 7 8
7 Arbroath Arbroath 7 8
8 Inverness CT Inverness CT 7 7
9 Queen's Park Queen's Park 7 4
10 Morton Morton 7 1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
The model gives Ayr Utd a 30% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 39% for an Stenhousemuir win.
How many goals are expected in Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
Expected goals: Ayr Utd 0.8, Stenhousemuir 1.3 (total 2.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 72%.
What is the most likely score in Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.72%.