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AZ Alkmaar - Hapoel Beer Sheva

Europa League October 15, 2026 18:45
AZ Alkmaar
#3 · 0 pts
vs
Hapoel Beer Sheva
#13 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
56.33%
Win
AZ Alkmaar
21.28%
Draw
22.39%
Win
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.87
Expected xG
1.34
Most likely outcome
AZ Alkmaar
56.33%
Probability
50.0%
1X2 accuracy · 10 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (9.02%)
1X2 Result
1 56%
X 21%
2 22%
Double Chance ✓ 100.0% hit rate (10 picks)
1X 78%
X2 44%
12 79%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 72%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives AZ Alkmaar a 56% win probability, against 21% for a draw and 22% for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Expected goals are 2.9 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.3 for Hapoel Beer Sheva (total 4.2), with a 85% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.02% probability.

Score Matrix

↕ AZ Alkmaar Hapoel Beer Sheva →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.5% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
1 4.3% 5.7% 3.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
2 6.1% 8.2% 5.5% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.8% 7.8% 5.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
4 4.2% 5.6% 3.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
5 2.4% 3.2% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Recent form

AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
No data available
Home clean sheet (120 days) 26%
Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva
D Levski Sofia 0–0
D Levski Sofia 0–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
Attack
74
Defence
72
Form
79
Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva
Attack
45
Defence
59
Form
53
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0 0
2 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia 0 0
3 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0 0
4 Benfica Benfica 0 0
5 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 0 0
6 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0 0
7 Celje Celje 0 0
8 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0 0
9 Celtic Celtic 0 0
10 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0 0
11 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 0 0
12 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0 0
13 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 0 0
14 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 0 0
15 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 0 0
16 Juventus Juventus 0 0
17 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0 0
18 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0 0
19 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 0 0
20 Lillestrom Lillestrom 0 0
21 Lyon Lyon 0 0
22 Marseille Marseille 0 0
23 AC Milan AC Milan 0 0
24 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0 0
25 OFI OFI 0 0
26 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 0 0
27 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 0 0
28 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0 0
29 Rennes Rennes 0 0
30 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 0 0
31 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 0 0
32 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0 0
33 Sunderland Sunderland 0 0
34 Torreense Torreense 0 0
35 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 0 0
36 Plzen Plzen 0 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 56% win probability, 21% for a draw, and 22% for an Hapoel Beer Sheva win.
How many goals are expected in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 2.9, Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.3 (total 4.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 85%.
What is the most likely score in AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.02%.