AZ Alkmaar - Sturm Graz
Europa League
December 10, 2026 18:45
⚡ Pre-match analysis
63.36%
Win
AZ Alkmaar
19.07%
Draw
17.58%
Win
Sturm Graz
3.0
0.88
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
AZ Alkmaar
63.36%
Probability
64.3%
1X2 accuracy · 14 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–1
(9.38%)
1X2 Result
1
63%
X
19%
2
18%
Double Chance
✓ 100.0% hit rate (14 picks)
1X
82%
X2
37%
12
81%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
70%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives AZ Alkmaar a 63% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Sturm Graz. Expected goals are 3.0 for AZ Alkmaar and 0.9 for Sturm Graz (total 3.9), with a 84% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.38% probability.
Season Stats
0W
0D
1L
2W
2D
5L
Averages per game
0.0
Goals
0.6
1.0
Conceded
1.2
2.0
Shots OT
3.2
5.0
Corners
3.0
55%
Poss.
44%
Percentages
0%
O 1.5
56%
0%
O 2.5
44%
0%
BTTS
33%
0%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ
Based on the last 9 matches in Europa League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ AZ Alkmaar
Sturm Graz →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| 1 | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | — |
| 2 | 9.3% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 3 | 9.3% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | — |
| 4 | 7.0% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | — |
| 5 | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
AZ Alkmaar
Attack
62
Defence
71
Form
55
Sturm Graz
Attack
39
Defence
57
Form
39
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Juventus
|
1 | 3 |
| 2 |
Crystal Palace
|
1 | 3 |
| 3 |
Sparta Praha
|
1 | 3 |
| 4 |
Beşiktaş
|
1 | 3 |
| 5 |
Union St. Gilloise
|
1 | 3 |
| 6 |
Ferencvarosi TC
|
1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Benfica
|
1 | 3 |
| 8 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
1 | 3 |
| 9 |
OFI
|
1 | 3 |
| 10 |
Bournemouth
|
1 | 3 |
| 11 |
Lyon
|
1 | 3 |
| 12 |
Torreense
|
1 | 3 |
| 13 |
Olympiakos Piraeus
|
1 | 3 |
| 14 |
Red Bull Salzburg
|
1 | 3 |
| 15 |
Sunderland
|
1 | 3 |
| 16 |
Omonia Nicosia
|
1 | 3 |
| 17 |
Sturm Graz
|
1 | 1 |
| 18 |
Rennes
|
1 | 1 |
| 19 |
Dinamo Zagreb
|
1 | 1 |
| 20 |
Hapoel Beer Sheva
|
1 | 1 |
| 21 |
Jagiellonia
|
1 | 0 |
| 22 |
Real Sociedad
|
1 | 0 |
| 23 |
Anderlecht
|
1 | 0 |
| 24 |
Lillestrom
|
1 | 0 |
| 25 |
Celta Vigo
|
1 | 0 |
| 26 |
AZ Alkmaar
|
1 | 0 |
| 27 |
Levski Sofia
|
1 | 0 |
| 28 |
Celtic
|
1 | 0 |
| 29 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
1 | 0 |
| 30 |
AC Milan
|
1 | 0 |
| 31 |
Celje
|
1 | 0 |
| 32 |
Marseille
|
1 | 0 |
| 33 |
Ararat-Armenia
|
1 | 0 |
| 34 |
Plzen
|
1 | 0 |
| 35 |
Lech Poznan
|
1 | 0 |
| 36 |
NEC Nijmegen
|
1 | 0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz?
The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 63% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 17% for an Sturm Graz win.
How many goals are expected in AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz?
Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 3.0, Sturm Graz 0.9 (total 3.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 84%.
What is the most likely score in AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.38%.