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Azerbaijan - Lithuania

UEFA Nations League October 04, 2026 15:00 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Azerbaijan
#2 · 0 pts
vs
Lithuania
#1 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
69.72%
Win
Azerbaijan
14.87%
Draw
15.41%
Win
Lithuania
3.01
Expected xG
1.32
Most likely outcome
Azerbaijan
69.72%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 3–1 (8.01%)
1X2 Result
1 70%
X 15%
2 15%
Double Chance
1X 85%
X2 30%
12 85%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 84%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Azerbaijan a 69% win probability, against 14% for a draw and 15% for Lithuania. Expected goals are 3.0 for Azerbaijan and 1.3 for Lithuania (total 4.3), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–1 at 8.01% probability.

Season Stats

Azerbaijan
0W 1D 5L
Lithuania
0W 0D 6L
Averages per game
0.5
Goals
0.7
2.8
Conceded
1.8
4.2
Shots OT
3.5
5.0
Corners
2.7
50%
Poss.
54%
Percentages
83%
O 1.5
67%
67%
O 2.5
67%
50%
BTTS
67%
17%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
67%
BTTS
Azerbaijan
0W 1D 2L · at home
Lithuania
0W 0D 3L · away
0.7
gls/g
0.7
2.0
Conceded
2.0
0%
Win %
0%
33%
Win or Draw
0%
67%
O 1.5
67%
67%
O 2.5
67%
67%
O 3.5
33%
67%
BTTS
67%
33%
Clean Sht
0%
33%
Failed to Score
33%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Azerbaijan Lithuania →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% —
1 4.0% 5.2% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
2 6.0% 7.9% 5.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
3 6.0% 7.9% 5.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
4 4.5% 6.0% 3.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1%
5 2.7% 3.6% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Recent form

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan
L Sweden 6–0
D Estonia 0–0
L Slovakia 1–3
L Estonia 3–1
L Slovakia 2–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 23%
Lithuania Lithuania
L Kosovo 1–0
L Cyprus 2–1
L Romania 1–2
L Kosovo 1–2
L Romania 3–1

Playing profile

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan
Attack
33
Defence
61
Form
39
Lithuania Lithuania
Attack
23
Defence
59
Form
44
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League D, Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Lithuania Lithuania 0 0
2 Azerbaijan Azerbaijan 0 0
3 Liechtenstein Liechtenstein 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League D, Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Azerbaijan Lithuania
Current #2 #1
→ Azerbaijan #1 #2
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Lithuania #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
The model gives Azerbaijan a 69% win probability, 14% for a draw, and 15% for an Lithuania win.
How many goals are expected in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Expected goals: Azerbaijan 3.0, Lithuania 1.3 (total 4.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
3–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.01%.