Skip to main content
← NM Cupen

Bærum - Lillestrom

NM Cupen October 01, 2026 18:00
Bærum
vs
Lillestrom
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.94%
Win
Bærum
31.58%
Draw
31.48%
Win
Lillestrom
4.5
Expected xG
1.2

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (9.63%)
1X2 Result
1 37%
X 32%
2 31%
Double Chance
1X 69%
X2 63%
12 68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 54%
✓ 93.3% hit rate (15 picks)
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bærum a 36% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Lillestrom. Expected goals are 4.5 for Bærum and 1.2 for Lillestrom (total 5.7), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.63% probability.

Season Stats

Bærum
1W 0D 1L
Lillestrom
5W 0D 1L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
2.3
2.5
Conceded
1.3
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
83%
0%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in NM Cupen. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
75%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
Bærum
1W 0D 1L · at home
Lillestrom
5W 0D 1L · away
2.0
gls/g
2.3
2.5
Conceded
1.3
50%
Win %
83%
50%
Win or Draw
83%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
83%
100%
O 3.5
50%
0%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
33%
50%
Failed to Score
17%
last 6
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Bærum Lillestrom →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% — —
1 1.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% —
2 3.4% 4.1% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
3 5.1% 6.1% 3.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
4 5.7% 6.9% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
5 5.2% 6.2% 3.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%

Recent form

Bærum Bærum
W Mjondalen 4–0
L Stabaek 0–5
Home clean sheet (120 days) 37%
Lillestrom Lillestrom
W Aurskog Finstadbru 0–3
L Bodo/Glimt 4–0
W Ham-Kam 0–2
W Sandnes ULF 1–2
W Hønefoss 2–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 36%

Playing profile

Bærum Bærum
Attack
75
Defence
79
Form
78
Lillestrom Lillestrom
Attack
39
Defence
59
Form
54
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bærum vs Lillestrom?
The model gives Bærum a 36% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 31% for an Lillestrom win.
How many goals are expected in Bærum vs Lillestrom?
Expected goals: Bærum 4.5, Lillestrom 1.2 (total 5.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Bærum vs Lillestrom?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.63%.