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Baglan Dragons - Aberystwyth Town

FAW Championship January 09, 2027 15:00
Baglan Dragons
#5 · 20 pts
vs
Aberystwyth Town
#3 · 22 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
29.67%
Win
Baglan Dragons
26.69%
Draw
43.65%
Win
Aberystwyth Town
1.16
Expected xG
1.73

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.12%)
1X2 Result
1 30%
X 27%
2 44%
Double Chance
1X 56%
X2 70%
12 73%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 59%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Aberystwyth Town a 43% win probability, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Baglan Dragons. Expected goals are 1.2 for Baglan Dragons and 1.7 for Aberystwyth Town (total 2.9), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.12% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Baglan Dragons have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Aberystwyth Town.

Season Stats

Baglan Dragons
6W 3D 6L
Aberystwyth Town
7W 3D 5L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.8
1.1
Conceded
1.2
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
67%
47%
O 2.5
60%
53%
BTTS
53%
20%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in FAW Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
35%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
Baglan Dragons
3W 2D 5L · at home
Aberystwyth Town
5W 1D 4L · away
1.0
gls/g
1.5
1.9
Conceded
1.6
30%
Win %
50%
50%
Win or Draw
60%
80%
O 1.5
70%
60%
O 2.5
60%
20%
O 3.5
50%
60%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
30%
40%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Baglan Dragons Aberystwyth Town →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6% 9.6% 8.3% 4.8% 2.1% 0.7%
1 6.4% 11.1% 9.6% 5.6% 2.4% 0.8%
2 3.7% 6.5% 5.6% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5%
3 1.4% 2.5% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons
W Ynyshir Albions 2–1
L Treowen Stars 0–1
D Pontypridd Town 1–1
W llanelli AFC 1–2
L Carmarthen Town 1–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 16%
Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town
W Trethomas Bluebirds 2–1
L Caerau (Ely) 0–1
W Pontypridd Town 1–3
D Swansea University 0–0
W Caerphilly Athletic 2–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons
Attack
30
Defence
69
Form
49
Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town
Attack
51
Defence
81
Form
73
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Baglan Dragons
0
Draw
2
Aberystwyth Town
7 Feb 2026 FAW Championship 0–1
9 Aug 2025 FAW Championship 1–2

South

# Team G Pts
1 Pontypridd Town Pontypridd Town 13 27
2 Swansea University Swansea University 11 24
3 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 10 22
4 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 13 22
5 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 13 20
6 Ynyshir Albions Ynyshir Albions 11 19
7 Afan Lido Afan Lido 14 18
8 Trethomas Bluebirds Trethomas Bluebirds 13 17
9 Treowen Stars Treowen Stars 12 17
10 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 12 15
11 Pontardawe Town Pontardawe Town 11 14
12 Caerphilly Athletic Caerphilly Athletic 13 14
13 Newport City Newport City 11 13
14 Cardiff Draconians Cardiff Draconians 11 12
15 Llantwit Major Llantwit Major 12 12
16 llanelli AFC llanelli AFC 14 3

What's at stake · South

Top 2 advance to the next round

Baglan Dragons Aberystwyth Town
Current #5 #3
→ Baglan Dragons #3 #4
→ Draw #5 #3
→ Aberystwyth Town #5 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?
The model gives Baglan Dragons a 29% win probability, 26% for a draw, and 43% for an Aberystwyth Town win.
How many goals are expected in Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?
Expected goals: Baglan Dragons 1.2, Aberystwyth Town 1.7 (total 2.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.12%.