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Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town

FAW Championship September 25, 2026 20:30
Baglan Dragons
#5 · 13 pts
vs
Carmarthen Town
#6 · 11 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.82%
Win
Baglan Dragons
27.75%
Draw
35.43%
Win
Carmarthen Town
1.77
Expected xG
1.73

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (8.85%)
1X2 Result
1 37%
X 28%
2 35%
Double Chance
1X 65%
X2 63%
12 72%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 61%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Baglan Dragons a 36% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Carmarthen Town. Expected goals are 1.8 for Baglan Dragons and 1.7 for Carmarthen Town (total 3.5), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 8.85% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Baglan Dragons have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Carmarthen Town.

Season Stats

Baglan Dragons
4W 3D 8L
Carmarthen Town
7W 4D 4L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
2.7
1.9
Conceded
2.3
Percentages
60%
O 1.5
87%
47%
O 2.5
87%
33%
BTTS
80%
27%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in FAW Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
55%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
Baglan Dragons
3W 2D 5L · at home
Carmarthen Town
6W 3D 1L · away
0.9
gls/g
3.0
2.1
Conceded
2.1
30%
Win %
60%
50%
Win or Draw
90%
70%
O 1.5
90%
60%
O 2.5
80%
40%
O 3.5
70%
40%
BTTS
80%
10%
Clean Sht
20%
60%
Failed to Score
0%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Baglan Dragons Carmarthen Town →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.0% 5.2% 4.5% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
1 5.3% 9.2% 8.0% 4.6% 2.0% 0.7%
2 4.7% 8.2% 7.1% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
3 2.8% 4.8% 4.2% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%
4 1.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
5 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Recent form

Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons
L Cardiff Draconians 2–1
W Afan Lido 2–1
L Caerphilly Athletic 0–1
W Caerau (Ely) 3–1
W Newport City 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 16%
Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town
D Ynyshir Albions 2–2
L Trethomas Bluebirds 2–3
D llanelli AFC 2–2
L Treowen Stars 2–4
W Afan Lido 3–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons
Attack
26
Defence
74
Form
54
Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town
Attack
58
Defence
40
Form
51
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Baglan Dragons
1
Draw
1
Carmarthen Town
28 Mar 2026 FAW Championship 0–7
25 Aug 2025 FAW Championship 0–0

South

# Team G Pts
1 Swansea University Swansea University 6 16
2 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 6 15
3 Treowen Stars Treowen Stars 7 13
4 Pontypridd Town Pontypridd Town 6 13
5 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 8 13
6 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 7 11
7 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 7 10
8 Afan Lido Afan Lido 8 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds Trethomas Bluebirds 7 9
10 Ynyshir Albions Ynyshir Albions 6 9
11 Caerphilly Athletic Caerphilly Athletic 7 8
12 Cardiff Draconians Cardiff Draconians 5 7
13 Newport City Newport City 5 6
14 Pontardawe Town Pontardawe Town 6 3
15 llanelli AFC llanelli AFC 8 2
16 Llantwit Major Llantwit Major 5 1

What's at stake · South

Top 2 advance to the next round

Baglan Dragons Carmarthen Town
Current #5 #6
→ Baglan Dragons #2 #6
→ Draw #3 #6
→ Carmarthen Town #6 #3

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town?
The model gives Baglan Dragons a 36% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 35% for an Carmarthen Town win.
How many goals are expected in Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town?
Expected goals: Baglan Dragons 1.8, Carmarthen Town 1.7 (total 3.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen Town?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.85%.