Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 18
May 30, 2026 22:30
N. Ferraresi
57'
(og)
David Duarte
(ast. Ademir)
90'+2
7'
Huguinho
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bahia a 45% win probability (draw 21%, Botafogo 32%). The final result was Bahia 2–1 Botafogo.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
10
9
Shots on target
6
2.45
Actual xG
0.95
4
Saves
8
69%
Possession
31%
10
Corners
4
14
Tackles
19
4
🟨 Yellow cards
5
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
7'
Huguinho⚽
21'
A. Montoro
C. Olivera
/ Ademir
25'
37'
N. Ferraresi
Ademir
42'
43'
C. Medina
Erick
44'
45'+2
Neto
45'+4
Raul Steffens
/
L. M. Villalba Jaume
45'+10
Huguinho
Caio Alexandre
/ Everton Ribeiro
46'
Erick Pulga
/ Everaldo
46'
⚽N. Ferraresi
(og)
57'
Ze Guilherme
/ M. Sanabria
65'
74'
S. Rodriguez
/
C. Medina
74'
Newton
/
A. Montoro
75'
Matheus Martins
/
Kauan Toledo
83'
Newton
⚽David Duarte
· ast. Ademir
90'+2
David Duarte
90'+3
90'+3
C. Ramos
/
G. Justino
Willian Jose
/ Marcos Victor
90'+4
Willian Jose
90'+7
Pre-match prediction
45.93%
Bahia ←
21.43%
X
32.64%
Botafogo
we assigned to the actual result (Bahia)
45.93%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.89
2.45
+0.56
1.65
0.95
-0.7
Bahia dominated by xG (2.45 vs 0.95).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Ronaldo
G
Ronaldo
G
66
José Guilherme
65'
D
José Guilherme
65'
D
21
Santiago Ramos Mingo
D
Santiago Ramos Mingo
D
33
David Duarte
1 ⚽
D
David Duarte
1 ⚽
D
2
Gilberto
D
Gilberto
D
11
Rodrigo Nestor
M
Rodrigo Nestor
M
8
Caio Alexandre
45'
M
Caio Alexandre
45'
M
14
Erick
M
99
Cristian Olivera
25'
F
Cristian Olivera
25'
F
12
Willian José
89'
F
Willian José
89'
F
16
Erick Pulga
45'
F
Erick Pulga
45'
F
Bench
7
Ademir
1 👟
65'
F
Ademir
1 👟
65'
F
90
Caio Suassuna
F
Caio Suassuna
F
27
Everaldo
45'
F
Everaldo
45'
F
10
Éverton Ribeiro
45'
M
Éverton Ribeiro
45'
M
3
Gabriel Xavier
D
Gabriel Xavier
D
6
Jean Lucas
M
Jean Lucas
M
4
Kanu
D
Kanu
D
44
Marcos Victor
1'
D
Marcos Victor
1'
D
23
Mateo Sanabria
25'
F
Mateo Sanabria
25'
F
15
Michel Araújo
M
Michel Araújo
M
31
Román Gómez
D
Román Gómez
D
22
Neto
47'
G
Neto
47'
G
13
Alex Telles
D
Alex Telles
D
34
Gabriel Justino
89'
D
Gabriel Justino
89'
D
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
1 ⚽
D
Nahuel Ferraresi
1 ⚽
D
4
Mateo Ponte
D
Mateo Ponte
D
6
Cristian Medina
74'
M
Cristian Medina
74'
M
75
Huguinho
1 ⚽
M
Huguinho
1 ⚽
M
59
Kauan Toledo
75'
M
Kauan Toledo
75'
M
10
Álvaro Montoro
74'
M
Álvaro Montoro
74'
M
77
Lucas Villalba
44'
M
Lucas Villalba
44'
M
19
Arthur Cabral
F
Arthur Cabral
F
Bench
26
Anthony
D
Anthony
D
27
Caio Roque
D
Caio Roque
D
45
Caio Valle
M
Caio Valle
M
9
Chris Ramos
1'
F
Chris Ramos
1'
F
88
Edenilson
M
Edenilson
M
14
Jordan Barrera
M
Jordan Barrera
M
11
Matheus Martins
15'
F
Matheus Martins
15'
F
28
Newton
16'
M
Newton
16'
M
1
Raul
46'
G
Raul
46'
G
23
Santiago Rodríguez
16'
M
Santiago Rodríguez
16'
M
2
Vitinho
D
Vitinho
D
3
Ythallo
D
Ythallo
D
Best on the pitch
David Duarte
D · Bahia
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 54 pass
Rodrigo Nestor
M · Bahia
8.00
4 shots
· 54 pass
Erick
M · Bahia
7.90
1 shots
· 30 pass
Huguinho
M · Botafogo
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 23 pass
Raul
G · Botafogo
7.60
· 21 pass
Ronaldo
G · Bahia
7.50
· 21 pass
Bahia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo | G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| José Guilherme | D | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 28% | 4 | — | — |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 4 | 71 | 66% | 1 | — | — |
| David Duarte | D | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 54 | 49% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Gilberto | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 79 | 74% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | 4 | 54 | 49% | 2 | — | — |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 25% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Cristian Olivera | F | 25 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Willian José | F | 89 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 18% | — | 1 | — |
| Erick Pulga | F | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Ademir | F | 65 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 21 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| Everaldo | F | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Éverton Ribeiro | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Marcos Victor | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | F | 25 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
Botafogo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neto | G | 47 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | — | — | 1 |
| Alex Telles | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| Gabriel Justino | D | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 90 | 5.90 | 1 | — | — | 23 | 15% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Mateo Ponte | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | 5 | — | — |
| Cristian Medina | M | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Huguinho | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Kauan Toledo | M | 75 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| Álvaro Montoro | M | 74 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Lucas Villalba | M | 44 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 24 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Chris Ramos | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Martins | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Newton | M | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
| Raul | G | 46 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Rodríguez | M | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bahia vs Botafogo?
The final score was Bahia 2–1 Botafogo.
What did the model predict before Bahia vs Botafogo?
The model assigned 45% probability to a Bahia win, 21% to a draw, and 32% to an Botafogo win.