Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 15
May 10, 2026 02:00
Luciano Juba
27'
(pen.)
41'
(ast. N. Villarreal)
Kaua Moraes
86'
(ast. L. Romero)
Kenji
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bahia a 41% win probability (draw 24%, Cruzeiro 34%). The final result was Bahia 1–2 Cruzeiro.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
17
3
Shots on target
7
1.12
Actual xG
1.52
5
Saves
2
46%
Possession
54%
6
Corners
8
18
Tackles
18
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
Joao Paulo
18'
24'
Fabricio Bruno
⚽Luciano Juba
(pen.)
27'
Willian Jose
/ Everaldo
34'
S. Ramos
35'
41'
ast. N. Villarreal ·
Kaua Moraes⚽
Everaldo
45'+3
M. Sanabria
/ Ademir
46'
46'
Kenji
/
Matheus Pereira
Everton Ribeiro
/ Rodrigo
61'
62'
Kaio Jorge
/
N. Villarreal
62'
Kaua Moraes
72'
Wanderson
/
L. Sinisterra
72'
L. Villalba
/
Kaua Moraes
Jean Lucas
/ Michel Araujo
72'
Erick Pulga
/ C. Olivera
72'
77'
L. Romero
78'
Lucas Silva
/
Gerson
86'
ast. L. Romero ·
Kenji⚽
89'
Otavio Costa
Pre-match prediction
41.16%
Bahia
24.31%
X
34.53%
Cruzeiro ←
we assigned to the actual result (Cruzeiro)
34.53%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.69
1.12
-0.57
1.61
1.52
-0.09
Cruzeiro dominated by xG (1.52 vs 1.12).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Léo Vieira
G
Léo Vieira
G
46
Luciano Juba
1 ⚽
D
Luciano Juba
1 ⚽
D
21
Santiago Ramos Mingo
D
Santiago Ramos Mingo
D
33
David Duarte
D
David Duarte
D
5
N. Acevedo
D
N. Acevedo
D
14
Erick
M
Erick
M
23
Mateo Sanabria
45'
M
Mateo Sanabria
45'
M
6
Jean Lucas
72'
M
Jean Lucas
72'
M
10
Éverton Ribeiro
61'
M
Éverton Ribeiro
61'
M
16
Erick Pulga
72'
M
Erick Pulga
72'
M
12
Willian José
34'
F
Willian José
34'
F
Bench
7
Ademir
45'
F
Ademir
45'
F
99
Cristian Olivera
18'
F
Cristian Olivera
18'
F
89
Dell
F
Dell
F
27
Everaldo
56'
F
Everaldo
56'
F
3
Gabriel Xavier
D
Gabriel Xavier
D
2
Gilberto
D
Gilberto
D
25
Iago Borduchi
D
Iago Borduchi
D
34
João Paulo
G
João Paulo
G
43
Luiz Gustavo
D
Luiz Gustavo
D
15
Michel Araújo
18'
M
Michel Araújo
18'
M
11
Rodrigo Nestor
29'
M
Rodrigo Nestor
29'
M
31
Román Gómez
D
Román Gómez
D
81
Otávio Costa
G
Otávio Costa
G
2
Kauã Moraes
1 ⚽
72'
D
Kauã Moraes
1 ⚽
72'
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
Jonathan Jesus
D
15
Fabrício Bruno
D
Fabrício Bruno
D
23
Fágner
D
Fágner
D
8
Matheus Henrique
45'
M
Matheus Henrique
45'
M
29
Lucas Romero
1 👟
M
Lucas Romero
1 👟
M
17
Luis Sinisterra
72'
M
Luis Sinisterra
72'
M
10
Matheus Pereira
M
Matheus Pereira
M
11
Gerson
78'
M
Gerson
78'
M
22
Néiser Villarreal
1 👟
62'
F
Néiser Villarreal
1 👟
62'
F
Bench
44
Bruno Alves
D
Bruno Alves
D
91
Chico da Costa
F
Chico da Costa
F
88
Christian
M
Christian
M
77
Japa
M
Japa
M
43
João Marcelo
D
João Marcelo
D
19
Kaio Jorge
28'
F
Kaio Jorge
28'
F
70
Kaique Kenji
1 ⚽
45'
F
Kaique Kenji
1 ⚽
45'
F
16
Lucas Silva
12'
M
Lucas Silva
12'
M
25
Lucas Villalba
18'
D
Lucas Villalba
18'
D
7
Marquinhos
F
Marquinhos
F
31
Matheus Cunha
G
Matheus Cunha
G
94
Wanderson
18'
F
Wanderson
18'
F
Best on the pitch
Kaique Kenji
F · Cruzeiro
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 13 pass
Kauã Moraes
D · Cruzeiro
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 20 pass
Gerson
M · Cruzeiro
7.50
2 shots
· 47 pass
Lucas Romero
M · Cruzeiro
7.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 64 pass
Jonathan Jesus
D · Cruzeiro
7.30
· 50 pass
N. Acevedo
D · Bahia
7.20
· 40 pass
Bahia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Vieira | G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Luciano Juba | D | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 41 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 35% | 2 | 1 | — |
| David Duarte | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 49 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Acevedo | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 32% | 4 | — | — |
| Erick | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Jean Lucas | M | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Éverton Ribeiro | M | 61 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| Erick Pulga | M | 72 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Willian José | F | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Ademir | F | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Olivera | F | 18 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | 56 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Michel Araújo | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 7% | — | — | — |
Cruzeiro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otávio Costa | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | — | 1 | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | 72 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 20 | 18% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 50 | 49% | 2 | — | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 44 | 41% | — | 1 | — |
| Fágner | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 25 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Romero | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 64 | 54% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Luis Sinisterra | M | 72 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 4 | 31 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Gerson | M | 78 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 47 | 42% | 3 | — | — |
| Néiser Villarreal | F | 62 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7% | 3 | — | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 28 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Kaique Kenji | F | 45 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | D | 18 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Wanderson | F | 18 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
The final score was Bahia 1–2 Cruzeiro.
What did the model predict before Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
The model assigned 41% probability to a Bahia win, 24% to a draw, and 34% to an Cruzeiro win.