Skip to main content
← Brasileirão Série A
Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 30 October 12, 2026 00:30 Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Bahia
#6 · 53 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Mirassol
#16 · 37 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Bahia
Luciano 38' (pen.)
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bahia a 66% win probability (draw 16%, Mirassol 16%). The final result was Bahia 1–0 Mirassol. In 1 previous meetings, Bahia have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Mirassol.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
10
2
Shots on target
2
3.22
Actual xG
1.89
2
Saves
1
53%
Possession
47%
6
Corners
2
20
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
11'
34'
35'
Chico Kim
36'
Walter Leandro Capeloza Artune
⚽Luciano (pen.)
38'
45'
Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve / Chico Kim ↕
45'
Edson Carioca / Alesson dos Santos Batista ↕
45'
Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo / Gustavo Henric da Silva ↕
↕ Caio Alexandre / Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho
59'
↕ Marcos Victor / Román Gómez
59'
Jean Lucas
63'
67'
André Luis / Bruno Santos de Oliveira ↕
↕ Cristian Olivera / Ademir
72'
73'
Carlos Eduardo / Denilson Alves Borges ↕
↕ Rodrigo Nestor / Éverton Ribeiro
73'
78'
Carlos Eduardo
↕ Alejo Veliz / Willian José
87'
90'+3
Neto Moura
90'+4
90'+7
(missed pen.) Reinaldo⚽
Pre-match prediction
66.27%
Bahia ←
16.82%
X
16.91%
Mirassol
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bahia) 66.27% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Bahia
3.02
3.22
+0.2
Mirassol
1.40
1.89
+0.49
Bahia dominated by xG (3.22 vs 1.89). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Flamengo Flamengo 33 73
2 Palmeiras Palmeiras 33 70
3 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 33 57
4 Fluminense Fluminense 33 54
5 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 33 54
6 Bahia Bahia 33 53
7 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 33 50
8 Santos Santos 33 47
9 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 33 44
10 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 33 43
11 Botafogo Botafogo 33 39
12 Coritiba Coritiba 32 39
13 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 32 38
14 Vitoria Vitoria 32 38
15 Gremio Gremio 33 37
16 Mirassol Mirassol 32 37
17 Internacional Internacional 33 35
18 Corinthians Corinthians 32 33
19 Remo Remo 33 29
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 32 21
Lineups
Bahia Bahia 4-3-3
1 Ronaldo Ronaldo G 7.41
46 Luciano Juba Luciano Juba 1 ⚽ D 8.00
3 Marco Moreno Marco Moreno D 7.58
33 David Duarte David Duarte D 8.00
44 Marcos Victor Marcos Victor 59' D 7.65
11 Rodrigo Nestor Rodrigo Nestor 73' M 7.20
8 Caio Alexandre Caio Alexandre 59' M 7.20
6 Jean Lucas Jean Lucas M 6.33
16 Erick Pulga Erick Pulga F 6.73
9 A. Véliz A. Véliz 87' F 6.44
99 C. Olivera C. Olivera 72' F 6.49
Bench
7 Ademir Ademir 18' F 6.43
14 Erick Erick 31' M 6.77
27 Everaldo Everaldo F 0.00
10 Éverton Ribeiro Éverton Ribeiro 17' M 7.01
17 G. Herrera G. Herrera G 0.00
4 Kanu Kanu D 0.00
18 Lautaro López Lautaro López M 0.00
15 M. Araújo M. Araújo M 0.00
23 M. Sanabria M. Sanabria F 0.00
31 Roman Gomez Roman Gomez 31' D 7.49
12 Willian José Willian José 3' F 6.50
66 Zé Guilherme Zé Guilherme D 0.00
Mirassol Mirassol 4-3-3
22 Walter Walter G 6.49
6 Reinaldo Reinaldo D 6.28
3 Willian Machado Willian Machado D 6.97
2 Lucas Oliveira Lucas Oliveira D 6.42
32 Igor Formiga Igor Formiga D 6.98
10 Chico Chico 45' M 6.60
25 Neto Moura Neto Moura M 6.56
27 Denilson Denilson 73' M 6.90
77 Alesson Alesson 45' F 6.23
30 Bruno Santos Bruno Santos 67' F 6.00
19 Gustavo Silva Gustavo Silva 45' F 6.22
Bench
9 André Luís André Luís 23' F 6.68
96 Carlos Eduardo Carlos Eduardo 17' F 6.08
20 Daniel Borges Daniel Borges D 0.00
95 Edson Edson 45' F 6.30
33 Eduardo Eduardo 45' M 6.82
17 Fernandinho Fernandinho F 0.00
44 Gabriel Gabriel D 0.00
7 Shaylon Shaylon 45' M 6.80
90 Thomazella Thomazella G 0.00
12 Victor Luís Victor Luís D 0.00
80 Wallisson Wallisson M 0.00
99 Zé Roberto Zé Roberto F 0.00
Best on the pitch
Luciano Juba
Luciano Juba
D · Bahia
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots · 49 pass
David Duarte
David Duarte
D · Bahia
8.00
2 shots · 73 pass
Marcos Victor
Marcos Victor
D · Bahia
7.65
· 58 pass
Marco Moreno
Marco Moreno
D · Bahia
7.58
1 shots · 72 pass
Roman Gomez
Roman Gomez
D · Bahia
7.49
· 20 pass
Ronaldo
Ronaldo
G · Bahia
7.41
· 35 pass
Bahia Bahia — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Ronaldo G 90 7.41 — — 0 35 30% 0 — —
Luciano Juba D 90 8.00 1 — 2 49 46% 0 — —
Marco Moreno D 90 7.58 — — 1 72 69% 1 — —
David Duarte D 90 8.00 — — 2 73 69% 1 — —
Marcos Victor D 59 7.65 — — 0 58 51% 2 — —
Rodrigo Nestor M 73 7.20 — — 2 26 21% 6 — —
Caio Alexandre M 59 7.20 — — 0 46 43% 1 — —
Jean Lucas M 90 6.33 — — 1 21 18% 1 1 —
Erick Pulga F 90 6.73 — — 2 25 20% 2 — —
A. Véliz F 87 6.44 — — 3 17 12% 1 — —
C. Olivera F 72 6.49 — — 1 27 23% 2 — —
Ademir F 18 6.43 — — 2 11 10% 1 — —
Erick M 31 6.77 — — 0 18 16% 0 — —
Éverton Ribeiro M 17 7.01 — — 0 12 11% 1 — —
Roman Gomez D 31 7.49 — — 0 20 17% 1 — —
Willian José F 3 6.50 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Mirassol Mirassol — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Walter G 90 6.49 — — 0 24 23% 0 1 —
Reinaldo D 90 6.28 — — 3 46 37% 1 — —
Willian Machado D 90 6.97 — — 0 56 50% 1 — —
Lucas Oliveira D 90 6.42 — — 0 37 33% 2 — —
Igor Formiga D 90 6.98 — — 0 40 36% 1 — —
Chico M 45 6.60 — — 0 21 19% 1 1 —
Neto Moura M 90 6.56 — — 0 59 52% 2 1 —
Denilson M 73 6.90 — — 1 41 39% 3 — —
Alesson F 45 6.23 — — 0 11 8% 0 — —
Bruno Santos F 67 6.00 — — 1 7 7% 0 — —
Gustavo Silva F 45 6.22 — — 0 14 10% 0 — —
André Luís F 23 6.68 — — 2 7 3% 0 — —
Carlos Eduardo F 17 6.08 — — 0 7 7% 0 1 —
Edson F 45 6.30 — — 3 10 7% 0 — —
Eduardo M 45 6.82 — — 0 37 34% 0 — —
Shaylon M 45 6.80 — — 0 40 37% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bahia vs Mirassol?
The final score was Bahia 1–0 Mirassol.
What did the model predict before Bahia vs Mirassol?
The model assigned 66% probability to a Bahia win, 16% to a draw, and 16% to an Mirassol win.