Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 10
April 06, 2026 00:30
David Duarte
(ast. Everton Ribeiro)
58'
42'
(ast. J. Lopez)
J. Arias
(og)
88'
S. Ramos
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bahia a 40% win probability (draw 28%, Palmeiras 31%). The final result was Bahia 1–2 Palmeiras.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
5
6
Shots on target
5
1.22
Actual xG
0.27
4
Saves
4
59%
Possession
41%
7
Corners
5
20
Tackles
16
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
Gabriel Xavier
-5'
Luciano Juba
40'
42'
ast. J. Lopez ·
J. Arias⚽
50'
Jhon Arias
55'
Agustín Giay
⚽David Duarte
· ast. Everton Ribeiro
58'
60'
R. Sosa
/
J. Arias
60'
Lucas Evangelista
/
Mauricio
60'
Luighi
/
J. Lopez
64'
Felipe Anderson
/
Allan Elias
Everaldo
/ Willian Jose
69'
C. Olivera
/ Ademir
69'
Caio Alexandre
/ Erick
69'
Everton Ribeiro
/ Michel Araujo
74'
81'
Khellven
/
Arthur Gabriel
85'
Khellven
Erick Pulga
/ Dell
86'
88'
(og)
S. Ramos⚽
90'+2
Luighi Hanri
Pre-match prediction
40.52%
Bahia
28.4%
X
31.08%
Palmeiras ←
we assigned to the actual result (Palmeiras)
31.08%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.68
1.22
-0.46
1.21
0.27
-0.94
Bahia dominated by xG (1.22 vs 0.27).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
G
46
Luciano Juba
D
Luciano Juba
D
21
S. Ramos
1 ⚽
D
S. Ramos
1 ⚽
D
33
David Duarte
1 ⚽
D
David Duarte
1 ⚽
D
5
N. Acevedo
D
N. Acevedo
D
6
Jean Lucas
M
Jean Lucas
M
8
Caio Alexandre
69'
M
Caio Alexandre
69'
M
10
Éverton Ribeiro
1 👟
74'
M
Éverton Ribeiro
1 👟
74'
M
16
Erick Pulga
86'
F
Erick Pulga
86'
F
27
Everaldo
69'
F
Everaldo
69'
F
99
C. Olivera
69'
F
C. Olivera
69'
F
Bench
14
Erick
29'
M
Erick
29'
M
3
Gabriel Xavier
D
Gabriel Xavier
D
2
Gilberto
D
Gilberto
D
15
M. Araújo
24'
M
M. Araújo
24'
M
12
Willian José
29'
F
Willian José
29'
F
1
Carlos Miguel
G
Carlos Miguel
G
56
Arthur
81'
D
Arthur
81'
D
26
Murilo
D
Murilo
D
15
G. Gómez
D
G. Gómez
D
4
A. Giay
D
A. Giay
D
17
Marlon Freitas
M
Marlon Freitas
M
8
Andreas Pereira
M
Andreas Pereira
M
11
J. Arias
1 ⚽
60'
M
J. Arias
1 ⚽
60'
M
18
Maurício
60'
M
Maurício
60'
M
40
Allan
64'
M
Allan
64'
M
42
J. López
1 👟
60'
F
J. López
1 👟
60'
F
Bench
7
Felipe Anderson
34'
M
Felipe Anderson
34'
M
12
Khellven
17'
D
Khellven
17'
D
30
Lucas Evangelista
38'
M
Lucas Evangelista
38'
M
31
Luighi Hanri
38'
F
Luighi Hanri
38'
F
50
Luis Felipe
M
Luis Felipe
M
19
R. Sosa
38'
F
R. Sosa
38'
F
Best on the pitch
David Duarte
D · Bahia
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 78 pass
Éverton Ribeiro
M · Bahia
8.00
1 👟
2 shots
· 54 pass
J. Arias
M · Palmeiras
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 32 pass
Murilo
D · Palmeiras
7.30
· 22 pass
Erick Pulga
F · Bahia
7.20
· 21 pass
Andreas Pereira
M · Palmeiras
7.20
2 shots
· 51 pass
Bahia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 19 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| Luciano Juba | D | 98 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 33% | 2 | 1 | — |
| S. Ramos | D | 98 | 6.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 61 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| David Duarte | D | 98 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 78 | 70% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Acevedo | D | 98 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 60% | 3 | — | — |
| Jean Lucas | M | 98 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 32% | 4 | — | — |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 69 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 47 | 45% | — | — | — |
| Éverton Ribeiro | M | 74 | 8.00 | — | 1 | 2 | 54 | 44% | 4 | — | — |
| Erick Pulga | F | 86 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | 69 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 11 | 7% | — | — | — |
| C. Olivera | F | 69 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 26 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Erick | M | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| M. Araújo | M | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Willian José | F | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Palmeiras — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Miguel | G | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Arthur | D | 81 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 98 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Gómez | D | 98 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 23 | 21% | — | — | — |
| A. Giay | D | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 40 | 37% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 98 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 47 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 51 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Arias | M | 60 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 32 | 29% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Maurício | M | 60 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Allan | M | 64 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 4% | 2 | — | — |
| J. López | F | 60 | 6.20 | — | 1 | — | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 34 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Khellven | D | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 38 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 38 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Sosa | F | 38 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bahia vs Palmeiras?
The final score was Bahia 1–2 Palmeiras.
What did the model predict before Bahia vs Palmeiras?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Bahia win, 28% to a draw, and 31% to an Palmeiras win.