Bahia 3–2 Sao Paulo — pre-match prediction — Brasileirão Série A — October 29, 2026

← Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 33 October 29, 2026 01:30 Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador

Bahia

#6 · 53 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Sao Paulo

#10 · 44 pts

Rodrigo Nestor (ast. Jean Lucas) 6'

erick pulga (ast. Marcos Victor) 10'

Marcos Victor (ast. Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho) 81'

43' (ast. Jonathan Calleri) Lucas Moura

45'+5 Damian Bobadilla

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bahia a 47% win probability (draw 23%, Sao Paulo 29%). The final result was Bahia 3–2 Sao Paulo. In 1 previous meetings, Bahia have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Sao Paulo.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.17

Actual xG

0.91

Saves

47%

Possession

53%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽Rodrigo Nestor · ast. Jean Lucas

⚽erick pulga · ast. Marcos Victor

10'

43'

ast. Jonathan Calleri · Lucas Moura⚽

45'+5

Damian Bobadilla⚽

↕ Jean Lucas / Éverton Ribeiro

56'

↕ Nicolas Acevedo / Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho

56'

↕ erick pulga / Ademir

56'

Marcos Victor

69'

70'

Jose Monteiro

71'

Djhordney Ferreira / Luciano ↕

↕ Rodrigo Nestor / Caio Alexandre

74'

⚽Marcos Victor · ast. Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho

81'

82'

Gustavo Santana / Jose Monteiro ↕

82'

Victor Sá / Wendell ↕

82'

Danielzinho / Pablo Maia ↕

82'

Cauly Oliveira Souza / Damian Bobadilla ↕

↕ Cristian Olivera / Michel Araujo

88'

90'+1

Gustavo Santana

90'+2

Lucas Moura

90'+3

Dorival Silvestre Júnior

David Duarte

90'+6

Pre-match prediction

47.0%

Bahia ←

23.46%

29.54%

Sao

we assigned to the actual result (Bahia) 47.0% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Bahia

1.68

1.17

-0.51

Sao

1.35

0.91

-0.44

xG dominance was balanced (1.17 – 0.91). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	76
2	Palmeiras	34	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	60
4	Fluminense	34	57
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	54
6	Bahia	34	53
7	Atletico-MG	34	50
8	RB Bragantino	34	47
9	Santos	34	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	44
11	Botafogo	34	42
12	Coritiba	34	42
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	41
14	Mirassol	34	40
15	Vitoria	34	38
16	Internacional	34	38
17	Corinthians	34	37
18	Gremio	34	37
19	Remo	34	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	21

Lineups

Bahia 5-3-2

Ronaldo G 6.97

Luciano Juba D 5.93

Marco Moreno D 6.56

David Duarte D 6.23

Marcos Victor 1 ⚽ 1 👟 D 7.35

Cristian Olivera 88' D 6.17

Rodrigo Nestor 1 ⚽ 74' M 7.41

N. Acevedo 56' M 6.36

Jean Lucas 1 👟 56' M 6.87

Alejo Véliz F 5.84

Erick Pulga 1 ⚽ 56' F 7.72

Bench

Ademir 34' F 6.35

Caio Alexandre 16' M 6.05

Erick 1 👟 34' M 6.47

Everaldo F 0.00

Everton Ribeiro 34' M 6.62

Guido Herrera G 0.00

José Guilherme D 0.00

Luiz Gustavo D 0.00

Mateo Sanabria F 0.00

Michel Araújo 2' M 6.06

Román Gómez D 0.00

Ruan Pablo F 0.00

Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1

Rafael G 5.65

Sabino 82' D 5.97

Robert Arboleda D 6.26

Newton D 6.00

Wendell 82' M 6.35

Pablo Maia 82' M 6.40

Damián Bobadilla 1 ⚽ 82' M 7.23

Pedro Lima M 7.20

Lucas Moura 1 ⚽ M 6.89

Luciano 71' M 6.39

J. Calleri 1 👟 F 6.57

Bench

André Silva F 0.00

Carlos Coronel G 0.00

Cauly 8' M 5.73

Danielzinho 8' M 5.85

Djhordney 19' M 6.50

Gustavo Santana 8' F 6.07

Lucas Ramon D 0.00

Luis Osorio D 0.00

Pedro Ferreira M 0.00

Rafael Tolói D 0.00

Ryan Francisco F 0.00

Victor Sá 8' F 6.46

Best on the pitch

Erick Pulga

F · Bahia

7.72

1 ⚽

3 shots · 13 pass

Rodrigo Nestor

M · Bahia

7.41

1 ⚽

2 shots · 27 pass

Marcos Victor

D · Bahia

7.35

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 69 pass

Damián Bobadilla

M · Sao

7.23

1 ⚽

2 shots · 53 pass

Pedro Lima

M · Sao

7.20

2 shots · 35 pass

Ronaldo

G · Bahia

6.97

· 16 pass

Bahia — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Ronaldo	G	90	6.97	—	—	0	16	10%	0	—	—
Luciano Juba	D	90	5.93	—	—	0	52	42%	1	—	—
Marco Moreno	D	90	6.56	—	—	0	43	37%	0	—	—
David Duarte	D	90	6.23	—	—	1	47	42%	1	1	—
Marcos Victor	D	90	7.35	1	1	1	69	54%	4	1	—
Cristian Olivera	D	88	6.17	—	—	1	15	14%	1	—	—
Rodrigo Nestor	M	74	7.41	1	—	2	27	22%	1	—	—
N. Acevedo	M	56	6.36	—	—	2	37	29%	2	—	—
Jean Lucas	M	56	6.87	—	1	0	28	23%	0	—	—
Alejo Véliz	F	90	5.84	—	—	0	21	14%	0	—	—
Erick Pulga	F	56	7.72	1	—	3	13	10%	0	—	—
Ademir	F	34	6.35	—	—	1	10	7%	1	—	—
Caio Alexandre	M	16	6.05	—	—	0	15	11%	1	—	—
Erick	M	34	6.47	—	1	2	14	12%	3	—	—
Everton Ribeiro	M	34	6.62	—	—	0	21	19%	3	—	—
Michel Araújo	M	2	6.06	—	—	0	2	0%	2	—	—

Sao Paulo — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Rafael	G	90	5.65	—	—	0	18	14%	0	—	—
Sabino	D	82	5.97	—	—	0	52	41%	3	1	—
Robert Arboleda	D	90	6.26	—	—	0	51	45%	1	—	—
Newton	D	90	6.00	—	—	3	54	45%	3	—	—
Wendell	M	82	6.35	—	—	1	37	34%	3	—	—
Pablo Maia	M	82	6.40	—	—	0	50	45%	2	—	—
Damián Bobadilla	M	82	7.23	1	—	2	53	45%	2	—	—
Pedro Lima	M	90	7.20	—	—	2	35	33%	2	—	—
Lucas Moura	M	90	6.89	1	—	2	38	32%	3	1	—
Luciano	M	71	6.39	—	—	2	34	29%	1	—	—
J. Calleri	F	90	6.57	—	1	0	16	11%	1	—	—
Cauly	M	8	5.73	—	—	0	9	6%	0	—	—
Danielzinho	M	8	5.85	—	—	1	16	14%	1	—	—
Djhordney	M	19	6.50	—	—	1	23	22%	0	—	—
Gustavo Santana	F	8	6.07	—	—	0	3	3%	0	1	—
Victor Sá	F	8	6.46	—	—	0	8	6%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Bahia vs Sao Paulo?

The final score was Bahia 3–2 Sao Paulo.

What did the model predict before Bahia vs Sao Paulo?

The model assigned 47% probability to a Bahia win, 23% to a draw, and 29% to an Sao Paulo win.