Champions League
· Quarter-finals
April 08, 2026 21:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Barcelona, result Atletico Madrid wins
45'
J. Alvarez
70'
(ast. M. Ruggeri)
A. Sorloth
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Barcelona a 58% win probability (draw 20%, Atletico Madrid 20%). The final result was Barcelona 0–2 Atletico Madrid. In 5 previous meetings, Barcelona have won 4 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Atletico Madrid.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
4
7
Shots on target
3
1.16
Actual xG
0.45
1
Saves
7
58%
Possession
42%
7
Corners
1
11
Tackles
18
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
31'
Koke
31'
M. Pubill
/
D. Hancko
42'
Pau Cubarsí
44'
45'+1
Marc Pubill
45'
J. Alvarez⚽
Pedri
/ Gavi
46'
R. Lewandowski
/ Fermín
46'
60'
A. Sorloth
/
A. Lookman
60'
A. Baena
/
Koke
63'
Alejandro Baena
Pablo Gavi
65'
70'
ast. M. Ruggeri ·
A. Sorloth⚽
M. Rashford
/ F. Torres
73'
J. Kounde
/ R. Araujo
73'
80'
N. Gonzalez
/
A. Griezmann
80'
T. Almada
/
G. Simeone
J. Cancelo
/ A. Balde
86'
Pre-match prediction
58.84%
Barcelona
20.26%
X
20.9%
Atletico ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Madrid)
20.9%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.23
1.16
-1.07
1.48
0.45
-1.04
Barcelona dominated by xG (1.16 vs 0.45).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
G
2
João Cancelo
86'
D
João Cancelo
86'
D
18
Gerard Martín
D
Gerard Martín
D
5
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
44'
D
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
44'
D
23
Jules Koundé
73'
D
Jules Koundé
73'
D
8
Pedri
45'
M
Pedri
45'
M
24
Eric García
M
Eric García
M
14
M. Rashford
73'
M
M. Rashford
73'
M
20
Dani Olmo
M
Dani Olmo
M
10
Lamine Yamal
M
Lamine Yamal
M
9
R. Lewandowski
45'
F
R. Lewandowski
45'
F
Bench
3
Alejandro Balde
8'
D
Alejandro Balde
8'
D
16
Fermín
45'
M
Fermín
45'
M
7
Ferran Torres
17'
F
Ferran Torres
17'
F
6
Gavi
45'
M
Gavi
45'
M
17
Marc Casadó
M
Marc Casadó
M
4
R. Araújo
17'
D
R. Araújo
17'
D
28
R. Bardghji
F
R. Bardghji
F
1
J. Musso
G
J. Musso
G
3
Matteo Ruggeri
1 👟
D
Matteo Ruggeri
1 👟
D
17
D. Hancko
31'
D
D. Hancko
31'
D
24
Robin Le Normand
D
Robin Le Normand
D
16
N. Molina
D
N. Molina
D
22
A. Lookman
60'
M
A. Lookman
60'
M
6
Koke
60'
M
Koke
60'
M
14
Marcos Llorente
M
Marcos Llorente
M
20
G. Simeone
80'
M
G. Simeone
80'
M
19
J. Álvarez
1 ⚽
F
J. Álvarez
1 ⚽
F
7
Antoine Griezmann
80'
F
Antoine Griezmann
80'
F
Bench
10
Álex Baena
30'
M
Álex Baena
30'
M
9
A. Sørloth
1 ⚽
30'
F
A. Sørloth
1 ⚽
30'
F
15
Clément Lenglet
D
Clément Lenglet
D
34
Julio Díaz
M
Julio Díaz
M
18
Marc Pubill
59'
D
Marc Pubill
59'
D
23
N. González
10'
F
N. González
10'
F
21
Obed Vargas
M
Obed Vargas
M
4
Rodrigo Mendoza
M
Rodrigo Mendoza
M
11
T. Almada
10'
M
T. Almada
10'
M
Best on the pitch
Lamine Yamal
M · Barcelona
8.70
2 shots
· 31 pass
J. Álvarez
F · Atletico
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 25 pass
J. Musso
G · Atletico
7.70
· 28 pass
Robin Le Normand
D · Atletico
7.50
· 52 pass
Matteo Ruggeri
D · Atletico
7.50
1 👟
· 39 pass
A. Sørloth
F · Atletico
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 8 pass
Barcelona — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| João Cancelo | D | 86 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| Gerard Martín | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 100 | 94% | — | — | — |
| Pau Cubarsí Paredes | D | 44 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 48 | 45% | — | — | 1 |
| Jules Koundé | D | 73 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 48 | 47% | — | — | — |
| Pedri | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Eric García | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 85 | 78% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Rashford | M | 73 | 6.60 | — | — | 6 | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Dani Olmo | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 58 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 90 | 8.70 | — | — | 2 | 31 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Lewandowski | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Balde | D | 8 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Fermín | M | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Ferran Torres | F | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Gavi | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | 2 | 1 | — |
| R. Araújo | D | 17 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 11% | — | — | — |
Atletico Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Musso | G | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Matteo Ruggeri | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 39 | 35% | 4 | — | — |
| D. Hancko | D | 31 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 52 | 50% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Molina | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 47 | 35% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Lookman | M | 60 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Koke | M | 60 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 33 | 31% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Marcos Llorente | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Simeone | M | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Álvarez | F | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Antoine Griezmann | F | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Álex Baena | M | 30 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Sørloth | F | 30 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Marc Pubill | D | 59 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 40 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| N. González | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| T. Almada | M | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
The final score was Barcelona 0–2 Atletico Madrid.
What did the model predict before Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Barcelona win, 20% to a draw, and 20% to an Atletico Madrid win.