✗Model wrong — prediction Barcelona, result Real Madrid wins
Raphael Dias Belloli
(ast. Pedri)
61'
41'
Kylian Mbappé
87'
(ast. Eduardo Camavinga)
Kylian Mbappé
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Barcelona a 56% win probability (draw 19%, Real Madrid 23%). The final result was Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid. In 3 previous meetings, Barcelona have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Real Madrid.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
5
1.27
Actual xG
2.01
3
Saves
5
62%
Possession
38%
6
Corners
6
16
Tackles
22
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
Xavi Espart
/ Alejandro Balde
30'
41'
Kylian Mbappé⚽
46'
Aurelien Tchouameni
⚽Raphael Dias Belloli
· ast. Pedri
61'
62'
Denzel Dumfries
/
Federico Valverde
Fermín López
/ Frenkie de Jong
74'
80'
Eduardo Camavinga
/
Bernardo Silva
Anthony Gordon
84'
Anthony Gordon
/ Karim Adeyemi
85'
Raphael Dias Belloli
/ Gabriel Jesus
86'
87'
ast. Eduardo Camavinga ·
Kylian Mbappé⚽
90'+2
Dean Huijsen
90'+4
Kylian Mbappé
90'+4
Trent Alexander-Arnold
/
Arda Güler
90'+4
Carlos Espí
/
Yan Diomande
Karim Adeyemi
90'+6
Alejandro Balde
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
56.93%
Barcelona
19.64%
X
23.44%
Real ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid)
23.44%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
4.50
1.27
-3.23
2.24
2.01
-0.23
Real Madrid dominated by xG (2.01 vs 1.27).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Joan García
G
Joan García
G
2
João Cancelo
D
João Cancelo
D
18
Gerard Martín
D
Gerard Martín
D
5
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
D
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
D
12
X. Espart
30'
D
X. Espart
30'
D
8
Pedri
1 👟
M
Pedri
1 👟
M
16
Rodri
M
Rodri
M
7
Fermín
74'
M
Fermín
74'
M
17
A. Gordon
85'
F
A. Gordon
85'
F
11
Raphinha
1 ⚽
86'
F
Raphinha
1 ⚽
86'
F
10
Lamine Yamal
F
Lamine Yamal
F
Bench
41
A. Campos
D
A. Campos
D
3
Alejandro Balde
60'
D
Alejandro Balde
60'
D
4
B. Farinas
M
B. Farinas
M
25
D. Livaković
G
D. Livaković
G
21
F. de Jong
16'
M
F. de Jong
16'
M
9
Gabriel Jesus
4'
F
Gabriel Jesus
4'
F
6
Gavi
M
Gavi
M
29
H. Abdelkarim
F
H. Abdelkarim
F
14
K. Adeyemi
5'
F
K. Adeyemi
5'
F
22
Marc Bernal
M
Marc Bernal
M
32
O. Goren
M
O. Goren
M
13
W. Szczęsny
G
W. Szczęsny
G
13
A. Lunin
G
A. Lunin
G
17
Marc Cucurella
D
Marc Cucurella
D
4
D. Huijsen
D
D. Huijsen
D
16
I. Konaté
D
I. Konaté
D
8
F. Valverde
62'
D
F. Valverde
62'
D
14
A. Tchouaméni
M
A. Tchouaméni
M
20
Bernardo Silva
80'
M
Bernardo Silva
80'
M
25
Y. Diomande
89'
M
Y. Diomande
89'
M
5
J. Bellingham
M
J. Bellingham
M
15
A. Güler
89'
M
A. Güler
89'
M
10
Kylian Mbappé
2 ⚽
F
Kylian Mbappé
2 ⚽
F
Bench
18
Álvaro Fernández
D
Álvaro Fernández
D
22
A. Rüdiger
D
A. Rüdiger
D
21
Brahim Díaz
M
Brahim Díaz
M
19
Carlos Espí
1'
F
Carlos Espí
1'
F
24
D. Dumfries
28'
D
D. Dumfries
28'
D
6
E. Camavinga
1 👟
10'
M
E. Camavinga
1 👟
10'
M
3
Éder Militão
D
Éder Militão
D
9
Endrick
F
Endrick
F
39
I. Voloshyn
G
I. Voloshyn
G
26
Sergio Mestre
G
Sergio Mestre
G
12
T. Alexander-Arnold
1'
D
T. Alexander-Arnold
1'
D
27
Thiago Pitarch
M
Thiago Pitarch
M
Best on the pitch
Kylian Mbappé
F · Real
8.81
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 18 pass
Raphinha
F · Barcelona
7.95
1 ⚽
6 shots
· 27 pass
A. Lunin
G · Real
7.83
· 24 pass
Pedri
M · Barcelona
7.64
1 👟
· 88 pass
João Cancelo
D · Barcelona
7.27
· 58 pass
A. Güler
M · Real
7.20
5 shots
· 34 pass
Barcelona — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joan García | G | 90 | 6.81 | — | — | 0 | 19 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| João Cancelo | D | 90 | 7.27 | — | — | 0 | 58 | 53% | 5 | — | — |
| Gerard Martín | D | 90 | 6.26 | — | — | 1 | 81 | 72% | 0 | — | — |
| Pau Cubarsí Paredes | D | 90 | 6.54 | — | — | 0 | 78 | 73% | 1 | — | — |
| X. Espart | D | 30 | 6.49 | — | — | 0 | 25 | 25% | 4 | — | — |
| Pedri | M | 90 | 7.64 | — | 1 | 0 | 88 | 78% | 0 | — | — |
| Rodri | M | 90 | 6.62 | — | — | 1 | 96 | 84% | 1 | — | — |
| Fermín | M | 74 | 6.31 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 27% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Gordon | F | 85 | 6.71 | — | — | 3 | 36 | 35% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Raphinha | F | 86 | 7.95 | 1 | — | 6 | 27 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Lamine Yamal | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 5 | 47 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| Alejandro Balde | D | 60 | 6.07 | — | — | 0 | 29 | 29% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. de Jong | M | 16 | 6.01 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 17% | 0 | — | — |
| Gabriel Jesus | F | 4 | 6.23 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| K. Adeyemi | F | 5 | 6.10 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 2% | 0 | 1 | — |
Real Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lunin | G | 90 | 7.83 | — | — | 0 | 24 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 90 | 6.62 | — | — | 0 | 42 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Huijsen | D | 90 | 6.59 | — | — | 0 | 46 | 38% | 0 | 1 | — |
| I. Konaté | D | 90 | 7.05 | — | — | 0 | 28 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| F. Valverde | D | 62 | 7.09 | — | — | 0 | 35 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Tchouaméni | M | 90 | 6.51 | — | — | 0 | 46 | 44% | 5 | 1 | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 80 | 6.50 | — | — | 0 | 24 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Diomande | M | 89 | 6.35 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 33% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 90 | 6.93 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | 5 | — | — |
| A. Güler | M | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | 5 | 34 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 90 | 8.81 | 2 | — | 3 | 18 | 15% | 0 | 1 | — |
| Carlos Espí | F | 1 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| D. Dumfries | D | 28 | 6.12 | — | — | 0 | 11 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Camavinga | M | 10 | 6.73 | — | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Alexander-Arnold | D | 1 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
The final score was Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid.
What did the model predict before Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
The model assigned 56% probability to a Barcelona win, 19% to a draw, and 23% to an Real Madrid win.