← Ligue 2

Bastia - Le Mans

Ligue 2 May 09, 2026 20:00
Bastia
#17 · 28 pts
vs
Le Mans
#3 · 59 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 17.4°C 💨 11 km/h · Bastia
⚡ Pre-match analysis
22.53%
Win
Bastia
17.58%
Draw
59.9%
Win
Le Mans
1.7
Expected xG
3.24
Model prediction
Le Mans
59.9%
Probability
47.4%
1X2 accuracy · 19 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Le Mans a 59% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 22% for Bastia. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bastia and 3.2 for Le Mans (total 4.9), with a 70% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–3 at 6.9% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Bastia have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Le Mans.

Score Matrix
↕ Bastia Le Mans →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.7% 2.3% 3.7% 4.0% 3.3% 2.1%
1 1.2% 3.9% 6.4% 6.9% 5.6% 3.6%
2 1.0% 3.3% 5.4% 5.9% 4.8% 3.1%
3 0.6% 1.9% 3.1% 3.3% 2.7% 1.8%
4 0.2% 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%
Recent form
Bastia Bastia
W Guingamp 0–1
D Clermont Foot 1–1
W Saint Etienne 2–0
L RED Star FC 93 4–3
D Amiens 1–1
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 33%
Le Mans Le Mans
D Reims 1–1
D Grenoble 1–1
W Clermont Foot 1–0
D Boulogne 0–0
W PAU 4–0
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 31%
Playing profile
Bastia Bastia
Attack
40
Defence
70
Form
45
Le Mans Le Mans
Attack
62
Defence
76
Form
64
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Bastia
0
Draw
1
Le Mans
L 22 Aug 2025 Ligue 2 0–1
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 34 67
2 Saint Etienne Saint Etienne 34 60
3 Le Mans Le Mans 33 59
4 RED Star FC 93 RED Star FC 93 34 58
5 Rodez Rodez 34 58
6 Reims Reims 34 56
7 Annecy Annecy 34 52
8 Montpellier Montpellier 34 51
9 PAU PAU 34 45
10 Dunkerque Dunkerque 34 43
11 Guingamp Guingamp 34 40
12 Grenoble Grenoble 34 39
13 Clermont Foot Clermont Foot 34 37
14 Nancy Nancy 34 37
15 Boulogne Boulogne 34 36
16 Laval Laval 34 32
17 Bastia Bastia 33 28
18 Amiens Amiens 34 24
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bastia vs Le Mans?
The model gives Bastia a 22% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 59% for an Le Mans win.
How many goals are expected in Bastia vs Le Mans?
Expected goals: Bastia 1.7, Le Mans 3.2 (total 4.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 70%.
What is the most likely score in Bastia vs Le Mans?
1–3 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 6.9%.