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← DFB Pokal

Bayer Leverkusen - 1. FC Nürnberg

DFB Pokal October 28, 2026 20:45 BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
vs
1. FC Nürnberg
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 12.0°C 💨 8 km/h · Bayer Leverkusen
⚡ Pre-match analysis
58.55%
Win
Bayer Leverkusen
17.73%
Draw
23.72%
Win
1. FC Nürnberg
3.45
Expected xG
2.44
Most likely outcome
Bayer Leverkusen
58.55%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 3 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 3–2 (6.08%)
1X2 Result
1 59%
X 18%
2 24%
Double Chance
1X 76%
X2 42%
12 82%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 91%
✓ 97.5% hit rate (40 picks)
Over 2.5 79%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bayer Leverkusen a 58% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 23% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Expected goals are 3.4 for Bayer Leverkusen and 2.4 for 1. FC Nürnberg (total 5.9), with a 90% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–2 at 6.08% probability.

Season Stats

Bayer Leverkusen
5W 0D 1L
1. FC Nürnberg
0W 2D 0L
Averages per game
2.7
Goals
2.0
0.7
Conceded
2.0
5.3
Shots OT
6.0
3.0
Corners
8.0
60%
Poss.
69%
Percentages
83%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
50%
17%
BTTS
100%
67%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in DFB Pokal. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Bayer Leverkusen
1W 0D 1L · at home
1. FC Nürnberg
0W 2D 0L · away
1.5
gls/g
2.0
1.0
Conceded
2.0
50%
Win %
0%
50%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
50%
0%
O 3.5
50%
0%
BTTS
100%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
50%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Bayer Leverkusen 1. FC Nürnberg →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%
1 1.0% 2.3% 2.9% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7%
2 1.7% 4.0% 4.9% 4.0% 2.4% 1.2%
3 1.9% 4.6% 5.6% 4.6% 2.8% 1.4%
4 1.6% 4.0% 4.9% 3.9% 2.4% 1.2%
5 1.1% 2.8% 3.4% 2.7% 1.7% 0.8%

Recent form

Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
W SV Wehen 0–4
L Bayern München 0–2
W FC St. Pauli 3–0
W Borussia Dortmund 0–1
W SC Paderborn 07 2–4
Home clean sheet (120 days) 51%
1. FC Nürnberg 1. FC Nürnberg
D FC Viktoria Köln 1–1
D Illertissen 3–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 26%

Playing profile

Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
Attack
60
Defence
64
Form
73
1. FC Nürnberg 1. FC Nürnberg
Attack
59
Defence
58
Form
60
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 58% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 23% for an 1. FC Nürnberg win.
How many goals are expected in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 3.4, 1. FC Nürnberg 2.4 (total 5.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 90%.
What is the most likely score in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
3–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 6.08%.