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Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV

Bundesliga May 16, 2026 15:30
Bayer Leverkusen
#6 · 58 pts
vs
Hamburger SV
#11 · 37 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 14.0°C 💨 10 km/h 🌧️ 35% · Leverkusen
⚡ Pre-match analysis
76.53%
Win
Bayer Leverkusen
11.88%
Draw
11.59%
Win
Hamburger SV
3.44
Expected xG
1.25
Model prediction
Bayer Leverkusen
76.53%
Probability
67.9%
1X2 accuracy · 28 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bayer Leverkusen a 76% win probability, against 11% for a draw and 11% for Hamburger SV. Expected goals are 3.4 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.3 for Hamburger SV (total 4.7), with a 84% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–1 at 7.8% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Hamburger SV.

Score Matrix
↕ Bayer Leverkusen Hamburger SV →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% —
1 3.2% 3.9% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.4% 6.8% 4.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
3 6.2% 7.8% 4.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
4 5.4% 6.7% 4.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
5 3.7% 4.6% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
L VfB Stuttgart 3–1
W RB Leipzig 4–1
W 1. FC Köln 1–2
L FC Augsburg 1–2
W Borussia Dortmund 0–1
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 37%
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
W SC Freiburg 3–2
W Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2
L 1899 Hoffenheim 1–2
L Werder Bremen 3–1
L VfB Stuttgart 4–0
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 26%
Playing profile
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
Attack
60
Defence
52
Form
57
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
Attack
35
Defence
48
Form
38
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
Bayer Leverkusen
0
Draw
0
Hamburger SV
W 4 Mar 2026 Bundesliga 1–0
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 76% win probability, 11% for a draw, and 11% for an Hamburger SV win.
How many goals are expected in Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 3.4, Hamburger SV 1.3 (total 4.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 84%.
What is the most likely score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
3–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.8%.