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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34 May 16, 2026 15:30 BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
#6 · 59 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Hamburger SV
#13 · 38 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Bayer Leverkusen, result Draw
N. Remberg 78' (og)
61' (ast. N. Capaldo) F. Vieira
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayer Leverkusen a 76% win probability (draw 12%, Hamburger SV 11%). The final result was Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 Hamburger SV. In 1 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Hamburger SV.

Match statistics
18
Total shots
13
6
Shots on target
5
2.75
Actual xG
1.33
4
Saves
5
60%
Possession
40%
6
Corners
3
14
Tackles
7
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
24'
J. Torunarigha
⚽P. Schick (missed pen.)
25'
61'
ast. N. Capaldo · F. Vieira⚽
↕ M. Tillman / J. Hofmann
62'
↕ M. Culbreath / Arthur
62'
↕ R. Andrich / E. Ben Seghir
62'
63'
M. Muheim / R. Philippe ↕
Arthur
66'
77'
Y. Poulsen / O. Stange ↕
77'
F. Balde / F. Vieira ↕
77'
S. Nandja / W. Omari ↕
78'
N. Capaldo
⚽N. Remberg (og)
78'
89'
W. Mikelbrencis / J. Torunarigha ↕
Pre-match prediction
76.46%
Bayer
12.27%
X ←
11.27%
Hamburger
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 12.27% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Bayer
3.44
2.75
-0.69
Hamburger
1.25
1.33
+0.08
Bayer Leverkusen dominated by xG (2.75 vs 1.33). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 34 89
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 34 73
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 34 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 34 62
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 34 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 34 59
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 34 47
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 34 44
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 34 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 34 40
11 Union Berlin Union Berlin 34 39
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 38
13 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 34 38
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 34 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 34 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 34 29
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 34 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 34 26
Lineups
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-4-2-1
1 M. Flekken M. Flekken G 6.30
12 E. Tapsoba E. Tapsoba D 7.00
8 R. Andrich R. Andrich 62' D 6.90
4 J. Quansah J. Quansah D 7.20
20 Álex Grimaldo Álex Grimaldo M 6.60
25 Exequiel Palacios Exequiel Palacios M 7.60
24 Aleix García Aleix García 84' M 7.90
42 Montrell Culbreath Montrell Culbreath 62' M 7.20
10 M. Tillman M. Tillman 62' F 7.20
30 Ibrahim Maza Ibrahim Maza F 6.30
14 P. Schick P. Schick F 6.60
Bench
13 Arthur Arthur 32' D 7.20
17 Eliesse Ben Seghir Eliesse Ben Seghir 32' F 7.50
19 E. Poku E. Poku F
6 Ezequiel Fernández Ezequiel Fernández M
28 Janis Blaswich Janis Blaswich G
7 Jonas Hofmann Jonas Hofmann 32' M 6.60
5 Loïc Badé Loïc Badé D
21 Lucas Vázquez Lucas Vázquez 10' D 6.30
15 Tim Oermann Tim Oermann D
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
12 Sander Tangvik Sander Tangvik G 8.20
25 J. Torunarigha J. Torunarigha 89' D 5.90
44 Luka Vušković Luka Vušković D 7.20
17 Warmed Omari Warmed Omari 77' D 7.20
23 Albert Grønbæk Albert Grønbæk M 6.70
6 Albert Sambi Lokonga Albert Sambi Lokonga M 7.20
21 N. Remberg N. Remberg 1 ⚽ M 6.30
24 N. Capaldo N. Capaldo 1 👟 M 6.30
14 Rayan Philippe Rayan Philippe 63' F 6.30
20 Fábio Vieira Fábio Vieira 1 ⚽ 77' F 7.90
49 Otto Stange Otto Stange 77' F 6.20
Bench
18 Bakery Jatta Bakery Jatta M
8 Daniel Elfadli Daniel Elfadli M
1 Daniel Fernandes Daniel Fernandes G
45 Fabio Baldé Fabio Baldé 17' F 6.60
16 Giorgi Gocholeishvili Giorgi Gocholeishvili D
28 M. Muheim M. Muheim 31' D 6.30
43 Shafiq Nandja Shafiq Nandja 17' D 6.20
2 William Mikelbrencis William Mikelbrencis 5' D
15 Yussuf Poulsen Yussuf Poulsen 17' F 6.70
Best on the pitch
Sander Tangvik
Sander Tangvik
G · Hamburger
8.20
· 50 pass
Aleix García
Aleix García
M · Bayer
7.90
2 shots · 88 pass
Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira
F · Hamburger
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots · 35 pass
Exequiel Palacios
Exequiel Palacios
M · Bayer
7.60
2 shots · 81 pass
Eliesse Ben Seghir
Eliesse Ben Seghir
F · Bayer
7.50
1 shots · 13 pass
J. Quansah
J. Quansah
D · Bayer
7.20
3 shots · 63 pass
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Flekken G 94 6.30 — — — 17 13% — — —
E. Tapsoba D 94 7.00 — — — 73 70% 1 — —
R. Andrich D 62 6.90 — — 1 55 52% — — —
J. Quansah D 94 7.20 — — 3 63 61% 1 — —
Álex Grimaldo M 94 6.60 — — — 59 49% 3 — —
Exequiel Palacios M 94 7.60 — — 2 81 76% — — —
Aleix García M 84 7.90 — — 2 88 83% 1 — —
Montrell Culbreath M 62 7.20 — — — 26 24% 3 — —
M. Tillman F 62 7.20 — — 1 28 22% 1 — —
Ibrahim Maza F 94 6.30 — — 4 31 23% 1 — —
P. Schick F 94 6.60 — — 4 9 6% 2 — —
Arthur D 32 7.20 — — — 11 10% — 1 —
Eliesse Ben Seghir F 32 7.50 — — 1 13 11% 1 — —
Jonas Hofmann M 32 6.60 — — — 8 8% — — —
Lucas Vázquez D 10 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Sander Tangvik G 94 8.20 — — — 50 33% — — —
J. Torunarigha D 89 5.90 — — — 43 36% 1 1 —
Luka Vušković D 94 7.20 — — 1 33 30% — — —
Warmed Omari D 77 7.20 — — — 30 27% 1 — —
Albert Grønbæk M 94 6.70 — — 1 32 24% 2 — —
Albert Sambi Lokonga M 94 7.20 — — 2 49 44% 2 — —
N. Remberg M 94 6.30 1 — 1 53 48% — — —
N. Capaldo M 94 6.30 — 1 2 32 24% — 1 —
Rayan Philippe F 63 6.30 — — 2 8 6% — — —
Fábio Vieira F 77 7.90 1 — 3 35 26% 1 — —
Otto Stange F 77 6.20 — — — 6 3% — — —
Fabio Baldé F 17 6.60 — — 1 2 2% — — —
M. Muheim D 31 6.30 — — — 10 10% — — —
Shafiq Nandja D 17 6.20 — — — 4 4% — — —
William Mikelbrencis D 5 — — — — 3 1% — — —
Yussuf Poulsen F 17 6.70 — — — 6 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
The final score was Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 Hamburger SV.
What did the model predict before Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
The model assigned 76% probability to a Bayer Leverkusen win, 12% to a draw, and 11% to an Hamburger SV win.