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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34 May 16, 2026 15:30 BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
#4 · 13 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Hamburger SV
#11 · 9 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Bayer Leverkusen, result Draw
N. Remberg 78' (og)
61' (ast. N. Capaldo) F. Vieira
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayer Leverkusen a 76% win probability (draw 12%, Hamburger SV 11%). The final result was Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 Hamburger SV. In 1 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Hamburger SV.

Match statistics
18
Total shots
13
6
Shots on target
5
2.75
Actual xG
1.33
4
Saves
5
60%
Possession
40%
6
Corners
3
14
Tackles
7
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
24'
J. Torunarigha
⚽P. Schick (missed pen.)
25'
61'
ast. N. Capaldo · F. Vieira⚽
↕ M. Tillman / J. Hofmann
62'
↕ M. Culbreath / Arthur
62'
↕ R. Andrich / E. Ben Seghir
62'
63'
M. Muheim / R. Philippe ↕
Arthur
66'
77'
Y. Poulsen / O. Stange ↕
77'
F. Balde / F. Vieira ↕
77'
S. Nandja / W. Omari ↕
78'
N. Capaldo
⚽N. Remberg (og)
78'
89'
W. Mikelbrencis / J. Torunarigha ↕
Pre-match prediction
76.46%
Bayer
12.27%
X ←
11.27%
Hamburger
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 12.27% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Bayer
3.44
2.75
-0.69
Hamburger
1.25
1.33
+0.08
Bayer Leverkusen dominated by xG (2.75 vs 1.33). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-4-2-1
1 M. Flekken M. Flekken G 6.30
12 E. Tapsoba E. Tapsoba D 7.00
8 R. Andrich R. Andrich 62' D 6.90
4 J. Quansah J. Quansah D 7.20
20 Álex Grimaldo Álex Grimaldo M 6.60
25 E. Palacios E. Palacios M 7.60
24 Aleix García Aleix García 84' M 7.90
42 Montrell Culbreath Montrell Culbreath 62' M 7.20
10 M. Tillman M. Tillman 62' F 7.20
30 I. Maza I. Maza F 6.30
14 P. Schick P. Schick F 6.60
Bench
13 Arthur Arthur 32' D 7.20
6 E. Fernández E. Fernández M
17 Eliesse Ben Seghir Eliesse Ben Seghir 32' F 7.50
19 Ernest Poku Ernest Poku F
28 J. Blaswich J. Blaswich G
7 J. Hofmann J. Hofmann 32' M 6.60
5 L. Badé L. Badé D
21 Lucas Vázquez Lucas Vázquez 10' D 6.30
15 T. Oermann T. Oermann D
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
12 S. Tangvik S. Tangvik G 8.20
25 J. Torunarigha J. Torunarigha 89' D 5.90
44 L. Vušković L. Vušković D 7.20
17 W. Omari W. Omari 77' D 7.20
23 A. Grønbæk A. Grønbæk M 6.70
6 A. Sambi Lokonga A. Sambi Lokonga M 7.20
21 N. Remberg N. Remberg 1 ⚽ M 6.30
24 N. Capaldo N. Capaldo 1 👟 M 6.30
14 R. Philippe R. Philippe 63' F 6.30
20 Fábio Vieira Fábio Vieira 1 ⚽ 77' F 7.90
49 Otto Emerson Stange Otto Emerson Stange 77' F 6.20
Bench
18 B. Jatta B. Jatta M
8 Daniel Elfadli Daniel Elfadli M
1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes Daniel Heuer Fernandes G
45 Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé 17' F 6.60
16 Giorgi Gocholeishvili Giorgi Gocholeishvili D
28 M. Muheim M. Muheim 31' D 6.30
43 S. Nandja S. Nandja 17' D 6.20
2 W. Mikelbrencis W. Mikelbrencis 5' D
15 Y. Poulsen Y. Poulsen 17' F 6.70
Best on the pitch
S. Tangvik
S. Tangvik
G · Hamburger
8.20
· 50 pass
Aleix García
Aleix García
M · Bayer
7.90
2 shots · 88 pass
Fábio Vieira
Fábio Vieira
F · Hamburger
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots · 35 pass
E. Palacios
E. Palacios
M · Bayer
7.60
2 shots · 81 pass
Eliesse Ben Seghir
Eliesse Ben Seghir
F · Bayer
7.50
1 shots · 13 pass
J. Quansah
J. Quansah
D · Bayer
7.20
3 shots · 63 pass
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Flekken G 94 6.30 — — — 17 13% — — —
E. Tapsoba D 94 7.00 — — — 73 70% 1 — —
R. Andrich D 62 6.90 — — 1 55 52% — — —
J. Quansah D 94 7.20 — — 3 63 61% 1 — —
Álex Grimaldo M 94 6.60 — — — 59 49% 3 — —
E. Palacios M 94 7.60 — — 2 81 76% — — —
Aleix García M 84 7.90 — — 2 88 83% 1 — —
Montrell Culbreath M 62 7.20 — — — 26 24% 3 — —
M. Tillman F 62 7.20 — — 1 28 22% 1 — —
I. Maza F 94 6.30 — — 4 31 23% 1 — —
P. Schick F 94 6.60 — — 4 9 6% 2 — —
Arthur D 32 7.20 — — — 11 10% — 1 —
Eliesse Ben Seghir F 32 7.50 — — 1 13 11% 1 — —
J. Hofmann M 32 6.60 — — — 8 8% — — —
Lucas Vázquez D 10 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
S. Tangvik G 94 8.20 — — — 50 33% — — —
J. Torunarigha D 89 5.90 — — — 43 36% 1 1 —
L. Vušković D 94 7.20 — — 1 33 30% — — —
W. Omari D 77 7.20 — — — 30 27% 1 — —
A. Grønbæk M 94 6.70 — — 1 32 24% 2 — —
A. Sambi Lokonga M 94 7.20 — — 2 49 44% 2 — —
N. Remberg M 94 6.30 1 — 1 53 48% — — —
N. Capaldo M 94 6.30 — 1 2 32 24% — 1 —
R. Philippe F 63 6.30 — — 2 8 6% — — —
Fábio Vieira F 77 7.90 1 — 3 35 26% 1 — —
Otto Emerson Stange F 77 6.20 — — — 6 3% — — —
Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé F 17 6.60 — — 1 2 2% — — —
M. Muheim D 31 6.30 — — — 10 10% — — —
S. Nandja D 17 6.20 — — — 4 4% — — —
W. Mikelbrencis D 5 — — — — 3 1% — — —
Y. Poulsen F 17 6.70 — — — 6 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
The final score was Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 Hamburger SV.
What did the model predict before Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV?
The model assigned 76% probability to a Bayer Leverkusen win, 12% to a draw, and 11% to an Hamburger SV win.