Bayer Leverkusen 4–1 RB Leipzig — pre-match prediction — Bundesliga — May 02, 2026

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 32 May 02, 2026 18:30 BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

#6 · 4 pts

4 – 1

Final score

RB Leipzig

#10 · 3 pts

P. Schick (ast. N. Tella) 25'

N. Tella (ast. A. Garcia) 45'

P. Schick (ast. I. Maza) 76'

P. Schick (ast. A. Grimaldo) 89'

80' (ast. B. Gruda) C. Baumgartner

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave RB Leipzig a 43% win probability (draw 18%, Bayer Leverkusen 38%). The final result was Bayer Leverkusen 4–1 RB Leipzig. In 1 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for RB Leipzig.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

4.38

Actual xG

1.14

Saves

55%

Possession

45%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

14'

M. Finkgrafe

⚽P. Schick · ast. N. Tella

25'

⚽N. Tella · ast. A. Garcia

45'

46'

B. Gruda / A. Nusa ↕

46'

C. Lukeba / E. Bitshiabu ↕

65'

A. Ouedraogo / N. Seiwald ↕

65'

C. Harder / Romulo Cardoso ↕

72'

X. Schlager

⚽P. Schick · ast. I. Maza

76'

↕ N. Tella / E. Poku

77'

↕ M. Culbreath / Arthur

77'

80'

ast. B. Gruda · C. Baumgartner⚽

84'

B. Henrichs / M. Finkgrafe ↕

84'

C. Baumgartner

↕ A. Garcia / E. Fernandez

85'

↕ I. Maza / M. Tillman

85'

M. Tillman

86'

⚽P. Schick · ast. A. Grimaldo

89'

↕ P. Schick / C. Kofane

90'+3

Pre-match prediction

38.11%

Bayer ←

18.18%

43.71%

we assigned to the actual result (Bayer Leverkusen) 38.11% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Bayer

2.35

4.38

+2.03

2.84

1.14

-1.71

Bayer Leverkusen dominated by xG (4.38 vs 1.14). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	3	9
2	Borussia Dortmund	3	9
3	FC Augsburg	3	7
4	SV Elversberg	2	6
5	Bayern München	2	4
6	Bayer Leverkusen	3	4
7	FSV Mainz 05	3	4
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	3	4
9	FC Schalke 04	3	4
10	RB Leipzig	2	3
11	1899 Hoffenheim	3	3
12	Werder Bremen	2	3
13	VfB Stuttgart	3	3
14	1. FC Köln	2	3
15	SC Paderborn 07	3	1
16	Union Berlin	3	1
17	Hamburger SV	2	0
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	3	0

Lineups

Bayer Leverkusen 3-4-2-1

G 6.90

E. Tapsoba D 7.20

R. Andrich D 7.00

J. Quansah D 6.20

Álex Grimaldo 1 👟 M 8.90

E. Palacios M 7.20

Aleix García 1 👟 85' M 8.90

Montrell Culbreath 77' M 6.90

Nathan Tella 1 ⚽ 1 👟 77' F 9.30

I. Maza 1 👟 85' F 7.70

P. Schick 3 ⚽ 89' F 9.30

Bench

Christian Kofane 1' F

E. Fernández 10' M 6.60

E. Poku 13' F 6.70

J. Blaswich G

M. Tillman 10' M 6.60

RB Leipzig 4-3-3

G 5.90

Max Finkgräfe 84' D 5.90

E. Bitshiabu 45' D 7.50

W. Orbán D 6.60

R. Baku D 5.50

C. Baumgartner 1 ⚽ M 7.20

N. Seiwald 65' M 6.90

X. Schlager M 6.60

A. Nusa 45' F 6.60

Rômulo 65' F 6.50

Y. Diomande F 6.00

Bench

A. Ouédraogo 25' M 6.20

B. Gruda 1 👟 45' F 6.90

C. Harder 25' F 6.30

C. Lukeba 45' D 6.60

D. Raum D

L. Klostermann D

Best on the pitch

Nathan Tella

F · Bayer

9.30

1 ⚽ 1 👟

4 shots · 21 pass

P. Schick

F · Bayer

9.30

3 ⚽

7 shots · 19 pass

Álex Grimaldo

M · Bayer

8.90

1 👟

2 shots · 58 pass

Aleix García

M · Bayer

8.90

1 👟

· 74 pass

I. Maza

F · Bayer

7.70

1 👟

· 30 pass

E. Bitshiabu

D · RB

7.50

· 29 pass

Bayer Leverkusen — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.90	—	—	—	29	21%	—	—	—
E. Tapsoba	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	57	55%	2	—	—
R. Andrich	D	90	7.00	—	—	—	57	52%	—	—	—
J. Quansah	D	90	6.20	—	—	2	45	39%	—	—	—
Álex Grimaldo	M	90	8.90	—	1	2	58	53%	5	—	—
E. Palacios	M	90	7.20	—	—	—	64	59%	2	—	—
Aleix García	M	85	8.90	—	1	—	74	71%	1	—	—
Montrell Culbreath	M	77	6.90	—	—	1	33	30%	2	—	—
Nathan Tella	F	77	9.30	1	1	4	21	18%	3	—	—
I. Maza	F	85	7.70	—	1	—	30	19%	2	—	—
P. Schick	F	89	9.30	3	—	7	19	18%	—	—	—
Christian Kofane	F	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
E. Fernández	M	10	6.60	—	—	—	4	4%	—	—	—
E. Poku	F	13	6.70	—	—	—	5	3%	—	—	—
M. Tillman	M	10	6.60	—	—	—	3	3%	1	1	—

RB Leipzig — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	5.90	—	—	—	20	13%	—	—	—
Max Finkgräfe	D	84	5.90	—	—	2	28	26%	2	1	—
E. Bitshiabu	D	45	7.50	—	—	—	29	29%	1	—	—
W. Orbán	D	90	6.60	—	—	—	56	50%	4	—	—
R. Baku	D	90	5.50	—	—	—	41	35%	2	—	—
C. Baumgartner	M	90	7.20	1	—	1	34	28%	1	1	—
N. Seiwald	M	65	6.90	—	—	1	35	34%	3	—	—
X. Schlager	M	90	6.60	—	—	1	49	45%	2	1	—
A. Nusa	F	45	6.60	—	—	1	8	7%	2	—	—
Rômulo	F	65	6.50	—	—	2	12	10%	1	—	—
Y. Diomande	F	90	6.00	—	—	1	32	25%	—	—	—
A. Ouédraogo	M	25	6.20	—	—	—	9	6%	—	—	—
B. Gruda	F	45	6.90	—	1	1	18	13%	—	—	—
C. Harder	F	25	6.30	—	—	—	5	5%	1	—	—
C. Lukeba	D	45	6.60	—	—	—	35	28%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?

The final score was Bayer Leverkusen 4–1 RB Leipzig.

What did the model predict before Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?

The model assigned 38% probability to a Bayer Leverkusen win, 18% to a draw, and 43% to an RB Leipzig win.