Bundesliga · Regular Season - 28 April 04, 2026 15:30 BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

#6 · 59 pts

6 – 3

Final score

VfL Wolfsburg

#16 · 29 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Bayer Leverkusen

A. Grimaldo 30' (pen.)

A. Grimaldo (ast. E. Fernandez) 44'

P. Schick 53' (pen.)

E. Tapsoba 68'

I. Maza (ast. E. Palacios) 73'

M. Tillman (ast. E. Poku) 90'

16' (ast. K. Koulierakis) J. Wind

31' J. Maehle

(pen.) 38' C. Eriksen

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayer Leverkusen a 75% win probability (draw 15%, VfL Wolfsburg 8%). The final result was Bayer Leverkusen 6–3 VfL Wolfsburg. In 1 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for VfL Wolfsburg.

Match statistics

21

Total shots

10

11

Shots on target

5

4.20

Actual xG

2.02

2

Saves

5

69%

Possession

31%

12

Corners

2

11

Tackles

19

1

🟨 Yellow cards

3

Match Events

16'

ast. K. Koulierakis · J. Wind⚽

29'

Joakim Mæhle

⚽A. Grimaldo (pen.)

30'

31'

J. Maehle⚽

36'

Edmond Tapsoba

37'

38'

(pen.) C. Eriksen⚽

⚽A. Grimaldo · ast. E. Fernandez

44'

↕ E. Fernandez / P. Schick

46'

⚽P. Schick (pen.)

53'

55'

Konstantinos Koulierakis

66'

J. Lindstrom / P. Wimmer ↕

⚽E. Tapsoba

68'

71'

Denis Vavro

⚽I. Maza · ast. E. Palacios

73'

↕ N. Tella / E. Poku

81'

81'

M. Arnold / C. Eriksen ↕

81'

D. Pejcinovic / J. Wind ↕

82'

M. Svanberg / S. Kumbedi ↕

↕ C. Kofane / M. Tillman

88'

⚽M. Tillman · ast. E. Poku

90'

Pre-match prediction

75.96%

Bayer ←

15.74%

X

8.3%

VfL

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayer Leverkusen) 75.96% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Bayer

2.49

4.20

+1.71

VfL

0.76

2.02

+1.26

Bayer Leverkusen dominated by xG (4.20 vs 2.02). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Bayern München	34	89
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	62
5	1899 Hoffenheim	34	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	59
7	SC Freiburg	34	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	44
9	FC Augsburg	34	43
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	40
11	Union Berlin	34	39
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	34	38
13	Hamburger SV	34	38
14	1. FC Köln	34	32
15	Werder Bremen	34	32
16	VfL Wolfsburg	34	29
17	1. FC Heidenheim	34	26
18	FC St. Pauli	34	26

Lineups

Bayer Leverkusen 3-4-2-1

1

G 6.60

12 E. Tapsoba 1 ⚽ D 6.90

5

D 6.70

8 R. Andrich D 6.20

20 Álex Grimaldo 2 ⚽ M 9.00

6 Ezequiel Fernández 1 👟 45' M 6.50

25 Exequiel Palacios 1 👟 M 7.90

42 Montrell Culbreath M 6.50

23

N. Tella 81' F 7.30

30 Ibrahim Maza 1 ⚽ F 8.90

35

Christian Kofane 88' F 6.50

Bench

19 E. Poku 1 👟 9' F 7.90

28 Janis Blaswich G

10 M. Tillman 1 ⚽ 9' M 7.60

14 P. Schick 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.00

VfL Wolfsburg 3-4-2-1

1

G 6.70

4 K. Koulierakis 1 👟 D 5.60

3

Denis Vavro D 5.90

6 Jeanuël Belocian D 5.60

21 J. Mæhle 1 ⚽ M 6.30

5 Vinicius Souza M 6.70

24 C. Eriksen 1 ⚽ 81' M 6.90

26 Saël Kumbedi 82' M 6.00

9 M. Amoura F 6.20

39 Patrick Wimmer 66' F 6.90

23 Jonas Wind 1 ⚽ 81' F 8.50

Bench

25 Aaron Zehnter D

11 Adam Daghim F

17 D. Pejčinović 9' F 6.30

19 Jesper Lindstrøm 24' M 6.70

7 K. Shiogai F

32 M. Svanberg 8' M 6.30

Best on the pitch

Álex Grimaldo

M · Bayer

9.00

2 ⚽

4 shots · 79 pass

Ibrahim Maza

F · Bayer

8.90

1 ⚽

3 shots · 55 pass

Jonas Wind

F · VfL

8.50

1 ⚽

1 shots · 20 pass

E. Poku

F · Bayer

7.90

1 👟

· 6 pass

Exequiel Palacios

M · Bayer

7.90

1 👟

1 shots · 122 pass

M. Tillman

M · Bayer

7.60

1 ⚽

1 shots · 9 pass

Bayer Leverkusen — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.60	—	—	—	15	8%	—	—	—
E. Tapsoba	D	90	6.90	1	—	1	83	73%	1	1	—
	D	90	6.70	—	—	2	70	67%	1	—	—
R. Andrich	D	90	6.20	—	—	2	72	62%	1	—	—
Álex Grimaldo	M	90	9.00	2	—	4	79	71%	1	—	—
Ezequiel Fernández	M	45	6.50	—	1	1	27	25%	—	—	—
Exequiel Palacios	M	90	7.90	—	1	1	122	109%	2	—	—
Montrell Culbreath	M	90	6.50	—	—	1	35	27%	2	—	—
N. Tella	F	81	7.30	—	—	3	30	27%	—	—	—
Ibrahim Maza	F	90	8.90	1	—	3	55	42%	2	—	—
Christian Kofane	F	88	6.50	—	—	—	12	9%	1	—	—
E. Poku	F	9	7.90	—	1	—	6	5%	—	—	—
M. Tillman	M	9	7.60	1	—	1	9	9%	—	—	—
P. Schick	F	45	7.00	1	—	2	8	7%	—	—	—

VfL Wolfsburg — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.70	—	—	—	35	22%	—	—	—
K. Koulierakis	D	90	5.60	—	1	1	29	26%	2	1	—
Denis Vavro	D	90	5.90	—	—	1	25	21%	1	1	—
Jeanuël Belocian	D	90	5.60	—	—	—	25	24%	1	—	—
J. Mæhle	M	90	6.30	1	—	1	20	17%	1	1	—
Vinicius Souza	M	90	6.70	—	—	—	29	24%	4	—	—
C. Eriksen	M	81	6.90	1	—	1	31	23%	1	—	—
Saël Kumbedi	M	82	6.00	—	—	—	15	11%	3	—	—
M. Amoura	F	90	6.20	—	—	3	16	8%	2	—	—
Patrick Wimmer	F	66	6.90	—	—	1	19	10%	2	—	—
Jonas Wind	F	81	8.50	1	—	1	20	14%	—	—	—
D. Pejčinović	F	9	6.30	—	—	1	3	2%	—	—	—
Jesper Lindstrøm	M	24	6.70	—	—	—	4	2%	2	—	—
M. Svanberg	M	8	6.30	—	—	—	7	5%	—	—	—