Bundesliga · Regular Season - 28 April 04, 2026 15:30 BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

#6 · 4 pts

6 – 3

Final score

VfL Wolfsburg

✓Model correct — prediction Bayer Leverkusen

A. Grimaldo 30' (pen.)

A. Grimaldo (ast. E. Fernandez) 44'

P. Schick 53' (pen.)

E. Tapsoba 68'

I. Maza (ast. E. Palacios) 73'

M. Tillman (ast. E. Poku) 90'

16' (ast. K. Koulierakis) J. Wind

31' J. Maehle

(pen.) 38' C. Eriksen

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayer Leverkusen a 75% win probability (draw 15%, VfL Wolfsburg 8%). The final result was Bayer Leverkusen 6–3 VfL Wolfsburg. In 1 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for VfL Wolfsburg.

Match statistics

21

Total shots

10

11

Shots on target

5

4.20

Actual xG

2.02

2

Saves

5

69%

Possession

31%

12

Corners

2

11

Tackles

19

1

🟨 Yellow cards

3

Match Events

16'

ast. K. Koulierakis · J. Wind⚽

29'

Joakim Mæhle

⚽A. Grimaldo (pen.)

30'

31'

J. Maehle⚽

36'

Edmond Tapsoba

37'

38'

(pen.) C. Eriksen⚽

⚽A. Grimaldo · ast. E. Fernandez

44'

↕ E. Fernandez / P. Schick

46'

⚽P. Schick (pen.)

53'

55'

Konstantinos Koulierakis

66'

J. Lindstrom / P. Wimmer ↕

⚽E. Tapsoba

68'

71'

Denis Vavro

⚽I. Maza · ast. E. Palacios

73'

↕ N. Tella / E. Poku

81'

81'

M. Arnold / C. Eriksen ↕

81'

D. Pejcinovic / J. Wind ↕

82'

M. Svanberg / S. Kumbedi ↕

↕ C. Kofane / M. Tillman

88'

⚽M. Tillman · ast. E. Poku

90'

Pre-match prediction

75.96%

Bayer ←

15.74%

X

8.3%

VfL

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayer Leverkusen) 75.96% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Bayer

2.49

4.20

+1.71

VfL

0.76

2.02

+1.26

Bayer Leverkusen dominated by xG (4.20 vs 2.02). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	3	9
2	Borussia Dortmund	3	9
3	FC Augsburg	3	7
4	SV Elversberg	2	6
5	Bayern München	2	4
6	Bayer Leverkusen	3	4
7	FSV Mainz 05	3	4
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	3	4
9	FC Schalke 04	3	4
10	RB Leipzig	2	3
11	1899 Hoffenheim	3	3
12	Werder Bremen	2	3
13	VfB Stuttgart	3	3
14	1. FC Köln	2	3
15	SC Paderborn 07	3	1
16	Union Berlin	3	1
17	Hamburger SV	2	0
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	3	0

Lineups

Bayer Leverkusen 3-4-2-1

1

G 6.60

12 E. Tapsoba 1 ⚽ D 6.90

5

D 6.70

8 R. Andrich D 6.20

20 Álex Grimaldo 2 ⚽ M 9.00

6 E. Fernández 1 👟 45' M 6.50

25 E. Palacios 1 👟 M 7.90

42 Montrell Culbreath M 6.50

23 Nathan Tella 81' F 7.30

30 I. Maza 1 ⚽ F 8.90

35 Christian Kofane 88' F 6.50

Bench

19 E. Poku 1 👟 9' F 7.90

28 J. Blaswich G

10 M. Tillman 1 ⚽ 9' M 7.60

14 P. Schick 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.00

VfL Wolfsburg 3-4-2-1

1

G 6.70

4 K. Koulierakis 1 👟 D 5.60

3 D. Vavro D 5.90

6 J. Belocian D 5.60

21 J. Mæhle 1 ⚽ M 6.30

5 Vinicius Souza M 6.70

24 C. Eriksen 1 ⚽ 81' M 6.90

26 Saël Kumbedi 82' M 6.00

9 M. Amoura F 6.20

39 P. Wimmer 66' F 6.90

23 J. Wind 1 ⚽ 81' F 8.50

Bench

25 Aaron Zehnter D

11 A. Daghim F

17 D. Pejčinović 9' F 6.30

19 J. Lindstrøm 24' M 6.70

7 K. Shiogai F

32 M. Svanberg 8' M 6.30

Best on the pitch

Álex Grimaldo

M · Bayer

9.00

2 ⚽

4 shots · 79 pass

I. Maza

F · Bayer

8.90

1 ⚽

3 shots · 55 pass

J. Wind

F · VfL

8.50

1 ⚽

1 shots · 20 pass

E. Poku

F · Bayer

7.90

1 👟

· 6 pass

E. Palacios

M · Bayer

7.90

1 👟

1 shots · 122 pass

M. Tillman

M · Bayer

7.60

1 ⚽

1 shots · 9 pass

Bayer Leverkusen — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.60	—	—	—	15	8%	—	—	—
E. Tapsoba	D	90	6.90	1	—	1	83	73%	1	1	—
	D	90	6.70	—	—	2	70	67%	1	—	—
R. Andrich	D	90	6.20	—	—	2	72	62%	1	—	—
Álex Grimaldo	M	90	9.00	2	—	4	79	71%	1	—	—
E. Fernández	M	45	6.50	—	1	1	27	25%	—	—	—
E. Palacios	M	90	7.90	—	1	1	122	109%	2	—	—
Montrell Culbreath	M	90	6.50	—	—	1	35	27%	2	—	—
Nathan Tella	F	81	7.30	—	—	3	30	27%	—	—	—
I. Maza	F	90	8.90	1	—	3	55	42%	2	—	—
Christian Kofane	F	88	6.50	—	—	—	12	9%	1	—	—
E. Poku	F	9	7.90	—	1	—	6	5%	—	—	—
M. Tillman	M	9	7.60	1	—	1	9	9%	—	—	—
P. Schick	F	45	7.00	1	—	2	8	7%	—	—	—

VfL Wolfsburg — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.70	—	—	—	35	22%	—	—	—
K. Koulierakis	D	90	5.60	—	1	1	29	26%	2	1	—
D. Vavro	D	90	5.90	—	—	1	25	21%	1	1	—
J. Belocian	D	90	5.60	—	—	—	25	24%	1	—	—
J. Mæhle	M	90	6.30	1	—	1	20	17%	1	1	—
Vinicius Souza	M	90	6.70	—	—	—	29	24%	4	—	—
C. Eriksen	M	81	6.90	1	—	1	31	23%	1	—	—
Saël Kumbedi	M	82	6.00	—	—	—	15	11%	3	—	—
M. Amoura	F	90	6.20	—	—	3	16	8%	2	—	—
P. Wimmer	F	66	6.90	—	—	1	19	10%	2	—	—
J. Wind	F	81	8.50	1	—	1	20	14%	—	—	—
D. Pejčinović	F	9	6.30	—	—	1	3	2%	—	—	—
J. Lindstrøm	M	24	6.70	—	—	—	4	2%	2	—	—
M. Svanberg	M	8	6.30	—	—	—	7	5%	—	—	—