Bundesliga · Regular Season - 28 April 04, 2026 17:30

Bayer Leverkusen

#6 · 58 pts

6 – 3

Final score

VfL Wolfsburg

#16 · 26 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Bayer Leverkusen

A. Grimaldo 30' (pen.)

A. Grimaldo (ast. E. Fernandez) 44'

P. Schick 53' (pen.)

E. Tapsoba 68'

I. Maza (ast. E. Palacios) 73'

M. Tillman (ast. E. Poku) 90'

16' (ast. K. Koulierakis) J. Wind

31' J. Maehle

(pen.) 38' C. Eriksen

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayer Leverkusen a 75% win probability (draw 15%, VfL Wolfsburg 8%). The final result was Bayer Leverkusen 6–3 VfL Wolfsburg. In 1 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for VfL Wolfsburg.

Match statistics

21

Total shots

10

11

Shots on target

5

4.20

Actual xG

2.02

2

Saves

5

69%

Possession

31%

12

Corners

2

11

Tackles

19

1

🟨 Yellow cards

3

Match Events

16'

ast. K. Koulierakis · J. Wind⚽

29'

Joakim Mæhle

⚽A. Grimaldo (pen.)

30'

31'

J. Maehle⚽

36'

Edmond Tapsoba

37'

38'

(pen.) C. Eriksen⚽

⚽A. Grimaldo · ast. E. Fernandez

44'

↕ E. Fernandez / P. Schick

46'

⚽P. Schick (pen.)

53'

55'

Konstantinos Koulierakis

66'

J. Lindstrom / P. Wimmer ↕

⚽E. Tapsoba

68'

71'

Denis Vavro

⚽I. Maza · ast. E. Palacios

73'

↕ N. Tella / E. Poku

81'

81'

M. Arnold / C. Eriksen ↕

81'

D. Pejcinovic / J. Wind ↕

82'

M. Svanberg / S. Kumbedi ↕

↕ C. Kofane / M. Tillman

88'

⚽M. Tillman · ast. E. Poku

90'

Pre-match prediction

75.96%

Bayer ←

15.74%

X

8.3%

VfL

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayer Leverkusen) 75.96% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Bayer

2.49

4.20

+1.71

VfL

0.76

2.02

+1.26

Bayer Leverkusen dominated by xG (4.20 vs 2.02). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Bayern München	33	86
2	Borussia Dortmund	33	70
3	RB Leipzig	33	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	33	61
5	1899 Hoffenheim	33	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	33	58
7	SC Freiburg	33	44
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	33	43
9	FC Augsburg	33	43
10	FSV Mainz 05	33	37
11	Hamburger SV	33	37
12	Union Berlin	33	36
13	Borussia Mönchengladbach	33	35
14	1. FC Köln	33	32
15	Werder Bremen	33	32
16	VfL Wolfsburg	33	26
17	1. FC Heidenheim	33	26
18	FC St. Pauli	33	26

Lineups

Bayer Leverkusen 3-4-2-1

1

G 6.60

12 E. Tapsoba 1 ⚽ D 6.90

5

D 6.70

8 R. Andrich D 6.20

20

A. Grimaldo 2 ⚽ M 9.00

6

E. Fernandez 1 👟 45' M 6.50

25 E. Palacios 1 👟 M 7.90

42

M. Culbreath M 6.50

23

N. Tella 81' F 7.30

30 I. Maza 1 ⚽ F 8.90

35

Christian Kofane 88' F 6.50

Bench

19 E. Poku 1 👟 9' F 7.90

28

J. Blaswich G

10 M. Tillman 1 ⚽ 9' M 7.60

14 P. Schick 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.00

VfL Wolfsburg 3-4-2-1

1

G 6.70

4

K. Koulierakis 1 👟 D 5.60

3

Denis Vavro D 5.90

6

J. Belocian D 5.60

21 J. Mæhle 1 ⚽ M 6.30

5 Vinicius Souza M 6.70

24

C. Eriksen 1 ⚽ 81' M 6.90

26

S. Kumbedi 82' M 6.00

9 M. Amoura F 6.20

39

P. Wimmer 66' F 6.90

23

J. Wind 1 ⚽ 81' F 8.50

Bench

11

A. Daghim F

25

A. Zehnter D

17

D. Pejcinovic 9' F 6.30

19

J. Lindstrom 24' M 6.70

7

K. Shiogai F

32

M. Svanberg 8' M 6.30

Best on the pitch

A. Grimaldo

M · Bayer

9.00

2 ⚽

4 shots · 79 pass

I. Maza

F · Bayer

8.90

1 ⚽

3 shots · 55 pass

J. Wind

F · VfL

8.50

1 ⚽

1 shots · 20 pass

E. Poku

F · Bayer

7.90

1 👟

· 6 pass

E. Palacios

M · Bayer

7.90

1 👟

1 shots · 122 pass

M. Tillman

M · Bayer

7.60

1 ⚽

1 shots · 9 pass

Bayer Leverkusen — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.60	—	—	—	15	8%	—	—	—
E. Tapsoba	D	90	6.90	1	—	1	83	73%	1	1	—
	D	90	6.70	—	—	2	70	67%	1	—	—
R. Andrich	D	90	6.20	—	—	2	72	62%	1	—	—
A. Grimaldo	M	90	9.00	2	—	4	79	71%	1	—	—
E. Fernandez	M	45	6.50	—	1	1	27	25%	—	—	—
E. Palacios	M	90	7.90	—	1	1	122	109%	2	—	—
M. Culbreath	M	90	6.50	—	—	1	35	27%	2	—	—
N. Tella	F	81	7.30	—	—	3	30	27%	—	—	—
I. Maza	F	90	8.90	1	—	3	55	42%	2	—	—
Christian Kofane	F	88	6.50	—	—	—	12	9%	1	—	—
E. Poku	F	9	7.90	—	1	—	6	5%	—	—	—
M. Tillman	M	9	7.60	1	—	1	9	9%	—	—	—
P. Schick	F	45	7.00	1	—	2	8	7%	—	—	—

VfL Wolfsburg — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.70	—	—	—	35	22%	—	—	—
K. Koulierakis	D	90	5.60	—	1	1	29	26%	2	1	—
Denis Vavro	D	90	5.90	—	—	1	25	21%	1	1	—
J. Belocian	D	90	5.60	—	—	—	25	24%	1	—	—
J. Mæhle	M	90	6.30	1	—	1	20	17%	1	1	—
Vinicius Souza	M	90	6.70	—	—	—	29	24%	4	—	—
C. Eriksen	M	81	6.90	1	—	1	31	23%	1	—	—
S. Kumbedi	M	82	6.00	—	—	—	15	11%	3	—	—
M. Amoura	F	90	6.20	—	—	3	16	8%	2	—	—
P. Wimmer	F	66	6.90	—	—	1	19	10%	2	—	—
J. Wind	F	81	8.50	1	—	1	20	14%	—	—	—
D. Pejcinovic	F	9	6.30	—	—	1	3	2%	—	—	—
J. Lindstrom	M	24	6.70	—	—	—	4	2%	2	—	—
M. Svanberg	M	8	6.30	—	—	—	7	5%	—	—	—