✗Model wrong — prediction Bayern München, result Draw
Alphonso Davies
(ast. Harry Kane)
35'
Harry Kane
61'
(pen.)
25'
(ast. Martin Odegaard)
Eberechi Eze
82'
(ast. Viktor Gyökeres)
Declan Rice
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 60% win probability (draw 20%, Arsenal 19%). The final result was Bayern München 2–2 Arsenal. In 1 previous meetings, Bayern München have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Arsenal.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
14
5
Shots on target
5
2.55
Actual xG
1.42
3
Saves
3
42%
Possession
58%
3
Corners
5
15
Tackles
17
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
10'
Eberechi Eze
/
Bukayo Saka
13'
Kai Havertz
25'
ast. Martin Odegaard ·
Eberechi Eze⚽
26'
⚽Alphonso Davies
· ast. Harry Kane
35'
39'
Ezri Konsa
Kim Min-Jae
/ Jonathan Tah
45'
⚽Harry Kane
(pen.)
61'
Ismael Saibari
/ Luis Díaz
68'
Serge Gnabry
/ Lennart Karl
68'
68'
Viktor Gyökeres
/
Kai Havertz
69'
Myles Lewis-Skelly
/
Bruno Guimarães
82'
ast. Viktor Gyökeres ·
Declan Rice⚽
85'
Mikel Merino
/
Martin Odegaard
Alphonso Davies
/ Nathaniel Brown
85'
Luis Díaz
/ Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
90'
Pre-match prediction
60.28%
Bayern
20.51%
X ←
19.22%
Arsenal
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
20.51%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.12
2.55
+0.43
0.88
1.42
+0.53
Bayern München dominated by xG (2.55 vs 1.42).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
M. Neuer
G
M. Neuer
G
44
J. Stanišić
D
J. Stanišić
D
3
Kim Min-Jae
45'
D
Kim Min-Jae
45'
D
2
D. Upamecano
D
D. Upamecano
D
27
K. Laimer
D
K. Laimer
D
45
A. Pavlović
M
A. Pavlović
M
8
T. Bischof
M
T. Bischof
M
19
A. Davies
1 ⚽
85'
M
A. Davies
1 ⚽
85'
M
34
I. Saibari
68'
M
I. Saibari
68'
M
7
S. Gnabry
68'
M
S. Gnabry
68'
M
9
H. Kane
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
H. Kane
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
39
Bara Ndiaye
1'
M
Bara Ndiaye
1'
M
21
H. Ito
D
H. Ito
D
4
J. Tah
45'
D
J. Tah
45'
D
40
J. Urbig
G
J. Urbig
G
14
L. Díaz
21'
F
L. Díaz
21'
F
42
L. Karl
22'
M
L. Karl
22'
M
11
N. Brown
5'
D
N. Brown
5'
D
23
S. Boey
D
S. Boey
D
26
S. Ulreich
G
S. Ulreich
G
46
T. Binder
M
T. Binder
M
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
33
R. Calafiori
D
R. Calafiori
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
D
Gabriel Magalhães
D
15
E. Konsa
D
E. Konsa
D
12
J. Timber
D
J. Timber
D
41
D. Rice
1 ⚽
M
D. Rice
1 ⚽
M
39
Bruno Guimarães
69'
M
Bruno Guimarães
69'
M
8
M. Ødegaard
1 👟
85'
M
M. Ødegaard
1 👟
85'
M
20
N. Madueke
F
N. Madueke
F
29
K. Havertz
68'
F
K. Havertz
68'
F
7
B. Saka
10'
F
B. Saka
10'
F
Bench
4
B. White
D
B. White
D
3
Cristhian Mosquera
D
Cristhian Mosquera
D
10
E. Eze
1 ⚽
80'
M
E. Eze
1 ⚽
80'
M
30
I. Meslier
G
I. Meslier
G
13
Kepa
G
Kepa
G
36
Martín Zubimendi
M
Martín Zubimendi
M
56
M. Dowman
F
M. Dowman
F
23
Mikel Merino
5'
M
Mikel Merino
5'
M
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
21'
D
M. Lewis-Skelly
21'
D
14
V. Gyökeres
1 👟
22'
F
V. Gyökeres
1 👟
22'
F
Best on the pitch
D. Rice
M · Arsenal
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 77 pass
E. Eze
M · Arsenal
7.91
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 22 pass
H. Kane
F · Bayern
7.70
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots
· 26 pass
M. Ødegaard
M · Arsenal
7.62
1 👟
1 shots
· 69 pass
A. Davies
M · Bayern
7.45
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 25 pass
R. Calafiori
D · Arsenal
6.88
4 shots
· 27 pass
Bayern München — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Neuer | G | 90 | 6.24 | — | — | 0 | 37 | 25% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Stanišić | D | 90 | 6.42 | — | — | 0 | 37 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Kim Min-Jae | D | 45 | 6.14 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 22% | 0 | — | — |
| D. Upamecano | D | 90 | 6.65 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 48% | 6 | — | — |
| K. Laimer | D | 90 | 6.28 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 19% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Pavlović | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 0 | 65 | 61% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Bischof | M | 90 | 6.59 | — | — | 0 | 54 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Davies | M | 85 | 7.45 | 1 | — | 2 | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Saibari | M | 68 | 6.27 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Gnabry | M | 68 | 5.78 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 90 | 7.70 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 19% | 0 | — | — |
| Bara Ndiaye | M | 1 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Tah | D | 45 | 6.52 | — | — | 0 | 35 | 33% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Díaz | F | 21 | 6.63 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Karl | M | 22 | 5.94 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 7% | 0 | — | — |
| N. Brown | D | 5 | 6.07 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 90 | 5.81 | — | — | 0 | 46 | 24% | 0 | — | — |
| R. Calafiori | D | 90 | 6.88 | — | — | 4 | 27 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 90 | 6.51 | — | — | 0 | 69 | 66% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Konsa | D | 90 | 6.12 | — | — | 0 | 60 | 57% | 0 | 1 | — |
| J. Timber | D | 90 | 6.37 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 77 | 69% | 6 | — | — |
| Bruno Guimarães | M | 69 | 6.66 | — | — | 2 | 32 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Ødegaard | M | 85 | 7.62 | — | 1 | 1 | 69 | 62% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Madueke | F | 90 | 6.44 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Havertz | F | 68 | 6.23 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 13% | 0 | 1 | — |
| B. Saka | F | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Eze | M | 80 | 7.91 | 1 | — | 2 | 22 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Mikel Merino | M | 5 | 6.02 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Lewis-Skelly | D | 21 | 6.08 | — | — | 0 | 9 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 22 | 6.58 | — | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bayern München vs Arsenal?
The final score was Bayern München 2–2 Arsenal.
What did the model predict before Bayern München vs Arsenal?
The model assigned 60% probability to a Bayern München win, 20% to a draw, and 19% to an Arsenal win.