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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 30 April 19, 2026 17:30
Bayern München
#1 · 17 pts
4 – 2
Final score
VfB Stuttgart
#15 · 6 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
R. Guerreiro (ast. J. Musiala) 31'
N. Jackson (ast. L. Diaz) 33'
A. Davies (ast. L. Diaz) 37'
H. Kane 52'
21' (ast. B. El Khannouss) C. Fuhrich
88' (ast. A. Karazor) C. Andres
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 70% win probability (draw 13%, VfB Stuttgart 15%). The final result was Bayern München 4–2 VfB Stuttgart. In 3 previous meetings, Bayern München have won 3 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for VfB Stuttgart.

Match statistics
17
Total shots
7
9
Shots on target
7
4.33
Actual xG
1.20
5
Saves
4
66%
Possession
34%
11
Corners
3
5
Tackles
23
Match Events
21'
ast. B. El Khannouss · C. Fuhrich⚽
⚽R. Guerreiro · ast. J. Musiala
31'
⚽N. Jackson · ast. L. Diaz
33'
⚽A. Davies · ast. L. Diaz
37'
46'
L. Jaquez / F. Jeltsch ↕
↕ J. Musiala / H. Kane
46'
↕ L. Diaz / M. Olise
46'
⚽H. Kane
52'
↕ A. Davies / K. Laimer
62'
65'
M. Mittelstadt / C. Fuhrich ↕
65'
C. Andres / A. Stiller ↕
76'
E. Demirovic / J. Leweling ↕
↕ R. Guerreiro / B. Ndiaye
76'
85'
B. Bouanani / T. Tomas ↕
↕ J. Stanisic / D. Ofli
85'
88'
ast. A. Karazor · C. Andres⚽
Pre-match prediction
70.49%
Bayern ←
13.55%
X
15.97%
VfB
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 70.49% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Bayern
4.12
4.33
+0.21
VfB
2.16
1.20
-0.96
Bayern München dominated by xG (4.33 vs 1.20). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
Bayern München Bayern München 4-2-3-1
40
G 7.20
19 A. Davies A. Davies 1 ⚽ 62' D 7.70
21 H. Ito H. Ito D 6.90
3 Kim Min-Jae Kim Min-Jae D 6.90
44 J. Stanišić J. Stanišić 85' D 6.20
8 L. Goretzka L. Goretzka M 6.50
6 J. Kimmich J. Kimmich M 8.30
14 L. Díaz L. Díaz 2 👟 45' M 7.90
10 J. Musiala J. Musiala 1 👟 45' M 7.50
22 Raphaël Guerreiro Raphaël Guerreiro 1 ⚽ 76' M 7.00
11 N. Jackson N. Jackson 1 ⚽ F 7.60
Bench
45 A. Pavlović A. Pavlović M
39 Bara Ndiaye Bara Ndiaye 14' F 6.30
2 D. Upamecano D. Upamecano D
9 H. Kane H. Kane 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.30
4 J. Tah J. Tah D
27 K. Laimer K. Laimer 28' M 6.70
1 M. Neuer M. Neuer G
17 M. Olise M. Olise 45' M 7.30
VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1
33
G 6.20
3 R. Hendriks R. Hendriks D 6.00
24 J. Chabot J. Chabot D 7.30
29 Finn Jeltsch Finn Jeltsch 45' D 5.90
4 J. Vagnoman J. Vagnoman D 5.70
6 A. Stiller A. Stiller 65' M 6.90
16 A. Karazor A. Karazor 1 👟 M 7.90
18 J. Leweling J. Leweling 76' M 7.00
10 C. Führich C. Führich 1 ⚽ 65' M 7.50
11 B. El Khannouss B. El Khannouss 1 👟 M 7.20
8 Tiago Tomás Tiago Tomás 85' F 6.20
Bench
23 Dan Zagadou Dan Zagadou D
9 E. Demirović E. Demirović 14' F 6.30
30 José María Andrés Baixauli José María Andrés Baixauli 1 ⚽ 25' M 7.90
22 L. Assignon L. Assignon D
7 M. Mittelstädt M. Mittelstädt 25' D 7.20
28 N. Nartey N. Nartey M
Best on the pitch
J. Kimmich
J. Kimmich
M · Bayern
8.30
2 shots · 114 pass
José María Andrés Baixauli
José María Andrés Baixauli
M · VfB
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 14 pass
L. Díaz
L. Díaz
M · Bayern
7.90
2 👟
1 shots · 25 pass
A. Karazor
A. Karazor
M · VfB
7.90
1 👟
· 36 pass
A. Davies
A. Davies
D · Bayern
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 28 pass
N. Jackson
N. Jackson
F · Bayern
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 35 pass
Bayern München Bayern München — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.20 — — — 44 32% — — —
A. Davies D 62 7.70 1 — 1 28 27% — — —
H. Ito D 90 6.90 — — — 82 76% — — —
Kim Min-Jae D 90 6.90 — — 1 75 72% 1 — —
J. Stanišić D 85 6.20 — — 1 45 41% — — —
L. Goretzka M 90 6.50 — — 2 73 64% 1 — —
J. Kimmich M 90 8.30 — — 2 114 112% 1 — —
L. Díaz M 45 7.90 — 2 1 25 22% — — —
J. Musiala M 45 7.50 — 1 1 15 12% — — —
Raphaël Guerreiro M 76 7.00 1 — 2 38 34% — — —
N. Jackson F 90 7.60 1 — 1 35 31% 1 — —
Bara Ndiaye F 14 6.30 — — — 8 8% — — —
H. Kane F 45 7.30 1 — 2 20 19% — — —
K. Laimer M 28 6.70 — — — 18 17% 1 — —
M. Olise M 45 7.30 — — 3 43 37% — — —
VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.20 — — — 34 16% — — —
R. Hendriks D 90 6.00 — — — 22 20% 3 — —
J. Chabot D 90 7.30 — — — 21 20% 4 — —
Finn Jeltsch D 45 5.90 — — — 15 12% 1 — —
J. Vagnoman D 90 5.70 — — — 21 14% 1 — —
A. Stiller M 65 6.90 — — — 42 38% 2 — —
A. Karazor M 90 7.90 — 1 — 36 34% 5 — —
J. Leweling M 76 7.00 — — — 20 19% 2 — —
C. Führich M 65 7.50 1 — 2 20 16% 1 — —
B. El Khannouss M 90 7.20 — 1 3 37 30% 1 — —
Tiago Tomás F 85 6.20 — — 1 16 9% 1 — —
E. Demirović F 14 6.30 — — — 2 2% 1 — —
José María Andrés Baixauli M 25 7.90 1 — 1 14 13% 1 — —
M. Mittelstädt D 25 7.20 — — — 15 8% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart?
The final score was Bayern München 4–2 VfB Stuttgart.
What did the model predict before Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart?
The model assigned 70% probability to a Bayern München win, 13% to a draw, and 15% to an VfB Stuttgart win.