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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 30 April 19, 2026 17:30
Bayern München
#1 · 89 pts
4 – 2
Final score
VfB Stuttgart
#4 · 62 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
R. Guerreiro (ast. J. Musiala) 31'
N. Jackson (ast. L. Diaz) 33'
A. Davies (ast. L. Diaz) 37'
H. Kane 52'
21' (ast. B. El Khannouss) C. Fuhrich
88' (ast. A. Karazor) C. Andres
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 70% win probability (draw 13%, VfB Stuttgart 15%). The final result was Bayern München 4–2 VfB Stuttgart. In 2 previous meetings, Bayern München have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for VfB Stuttgart.

Match statistics
17
Total shots
7
9
Shots on target
7
4.33
Actual xG
1.20
5
Saves
4
66%
Possession
34%
11
Corners
3
5
Tackles
23
Match Events
21'
ast. B. El Khannouss · C. Fuhrich⚽
⚽R. Guerreiro · ast. J. Musiala
31'
⚽N. Jackson · ast. L. Diaz
33'
⚽A. Davies · ast. L. Diaz
37'
46'
L. Jaquez / F. Jeltsch ↕
↕ J. Musiala / H. Kane
46'
↕ L. Diaz / M. Olise
46'
⚽H. Kane
52'
↕ A. Davies / K. Laimer
62'
65'
M. Mittelstadt / C. Fuhrich ↕
65'
C. Andres / A. Stiller ↕
76'
E. Demirovic / J. Leweling ↕
↕ R. Guerreiro / B. Ndiaye
76'
85'
B. Bouanani / T. Tomas ↕
↕ J. Stanisic / D. Ofli
85'
88'
ast. A. Karazor · C. Andres⚽
Pre-match prediction
70.49%
Bayern ←
13.55%
X
15.97%
VfB
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 70.49% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Bayern
4.12
4.33
+0.21
VfB
2.16
1.20
-0.96
Bayern München dominated by xG (4.33 vs 1.20). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 34 89
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 34 73
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 34 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 34 62
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 34 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 34 59
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 34 47
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 34 44
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 34 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 34 40
11 Union Berlin Union Berlin 34 39
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 38
13 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 34 38
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 34 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 34 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 34 29
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 34 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 34 26
Lineups
Bayern München Bayern München 4-2-3-1
40
G 7.20
19 Alphonso Davies Alphonso Davies 1 ⚽ 62' D 7.70
21 H. Ito H. Ito D 6.90
3 Kim Min-Jae Kim Min-Jae D 6.90
44 Josip Stanišić Josip Stanišić 85' D 6.20
8 L. Goretzka L. Goretzka M 6.50
6 J. Kimmich J. Kimmich M 8.30
14 L. Díaz L. Díaz 2 👟 45' M 7.90
10 J. Musiala J. Musiala 1 👟 45' M 7.50
22 Raphaël Guerreiro Raphaël Guerreiro 1 ⚽ 76' M 7.00
11 N. Jackson N. Jackson 1 ⚽ F 7.60
Bench
45 A. Pavlović A. Pavlović M
39 Bara Sapoko Ndiaye Bara Sapoko Ndiaye 14' F 6.30
2 Dayot Upamecano Dayot Upamecano D
9 H. Kane H. Kane 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.30
4 J. Tah J. Tah D
27 K. Laimer K. Laimer 28' M 6.70
1 M. Neuer M. Neuer G
17 M. Olise M. Olise 45' M 7.30
VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1
33
G 6.20
3 R. Hendriks R. Hendriks D 6.00
24 J. Chabot J. Chabot D 7.30
29 Finn Jeltsch Finn Jeltsch 45' D 5.90
4 Josha Vagnoman Josha Vagnoman D 5.70
6 A. Stiller A. Stiller 65' M 6.90
16 A. Karazor A. Karazor 1 👟 M 7.90
18 J. Leweling J. Leweling 76' M 7.00
10 C. Führich C. Führich 1 ⚽ 65' M 7.50
11 Bilal El Khannouss Bilal El Khannouss 1 👟 M 7.20
8 Tiago Tomás Tiago Tomás 85' F 6.20
Bench
30 Chema Andrés Chema Andrés 1 ⚽ 25' M 7.90
23 Dan Zagadou Dan Zagadou D
9 E. Demirović E. Demirović 14' F 6.30
22 L. Assignon L. Assignon D
7 Maximilian Mittelstädt Maximilian Mittelstädt 25' D 7.20
28 Nikolas Nartey Nikolas Nartey M
Best on the pitch
J. Kimmich
J. Kimmich
M · Bayern
8.30
2 shots · 114 pass
Chema Andrés
Chema Andrés
M · VfB
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 14 pass
L. Díaz
L. Díaz
M · Bayern
7.90
2 👟
1 shots · 25 pass
A. Karazor
A. Karazor
M · VfB
7.90
1 👟
· 36 pass
Alphonso Davies
Alphonso Davies
D · Bayern
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 28 pass
N. Jackson
N. Jackson
F · Bayern
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 35 pass
Bayern München Bayern München — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.20 — — — 44 32% — — —
Alphonso Davies D 62 7.70 1 — 1 28 27% — — —
H. Ito D 90 6.90 — — — 82 76% — — —
Kim Min-Jae D 90 6.90 — — 1 75 72% 1 — —
Josip Stanišić D 85 6.20 — — 1 45 41% — — —
L. Goretzka M 90 6.50 — — 2 73 64% 1 — —
J. Kimmich M 90 8.30 — — 2 114 112% 1 — —
L. Díaz M 45 7.90 — 2 1 25 22% — — —
J. Musiala M 45 7.50 — 1 1 15 12% — — —
Raphaël Guerreiro M 76 7.00 1 — 2 38 34% — — —
N. Jackson F 90 7.60 1 — 1 35 31% 1 — —
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye F 14 6.30 — — — 8 8% — — —
H. Kane F 45 7.30 1 — 2 20 19% — — —
K. Laimer M 28 6.70 — — — 18 17% 1 — —
M. Olise M 45 7.30 — — 3 43 37% — — —
VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.20 — — — 34 16% — — —
R. Hendriks D 90 6.00 — — — 22 20% 3 — —
J. Chabot D 90 7.30 — — — 21 20% 4 — —
Finn Jeltsch D 45 5.90 — — — 15 12% 1 — —
Josha Vagnoman D 90 5.70 — — — 21 14% 1 — —
A. Stiller M 65 6.90 — — — 42 38% 2 — —
A. Karazor M 90 7.90 — 1 — 36 34% 5 — —
J. Leweling M 76 7.00 — — — 20 19% 2 — —
C. Führich M 65 7.50 1 — 2 20 16% 1 — —
Bilal El Khannouss M 90 7.20 — 1 3 37 30% 1 — —
Tiago Tomás F 85 6.20 — — 1 16 9% 1 — —
Chema Andrés M 25 7.90 1 — 1 14 13% 1 — —
E. Demirović F 14 6.30 — — — 2 2% 1 — —
Maximilian Mittelstädt D 25 7.20 — — — 15 8% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart?
The final score was Bayern München 4–2 VfB Stuttgart.
What did the model predict before Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart?
The model assigned 70% probability to a Bayern München win, 13% to a draw, and 15% to an VfB Stuttgart win.