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Bedford Town - Chorley

National League North November 17, 2026 20:45
Bedford Town
#7 · 22 pts
vs
Chorley
#11 · 20 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
45.67%
Win
Bedford Town
24.33%
Draw
29.99%
Win
Chorley
1.95
Expected xG
1.43

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (9.63%)
1X2 Result ✓ 61.5% hit rate (13 picks)
1 46%
X 24%
2 30%
Double Chance ✓ 84.6% hit rate (13 picks)
1X 70%
X2 54%
12 76%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 55%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bedford Town a 45% win probability, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Chorley. Expected goals are 1.9 for Bedford Town and 1.4 for Chorley (total 3.4), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 9.63% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Bedford Town have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Chorley.

Season Stats

Bedford Town
7W 3D 5L
Chorley
7W 3D 5L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
1.7
1.2
Conceded
1.5
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
100%
47%
O 2.5
73%
67%
BTTS
73%
20%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in National League North. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
Bedford Town
6W 3D 1L · at home
Chorley
2W 3D 5L · away
1.7
gls/g
0.9
1.0
Conceded
1.3
60%
Win %
20%
90%
Win or Draw
50%
70%
O 1.5
80%
50%
O 2.5
40%
40%
O 3.5
10%
70%
BTTS
40%
30%
Clean Sht
30%
0%
Failed to Score
40%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Bedford Town Chorley →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.4% 4.9% 3.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
1 6.6% 9.5% 6.8% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.5% 9.3% 6.6% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3%
3 4.2% 6.0% 4.3% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 2.0% 2.9% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% —

Recent form

Bedford Town Bedford Town
W Hednesford Town 1–0
W Scarborough Athletic 1–2
L Chester 1–0
D Hereford 1–1
L Spalding United 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 31%
Chorley Chorley
W Radcliffe 0–3
L Buxton 2–3
W AFC Telford United 2–1
W Spalding United 2–1
L King's Lynn Town 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 29%

Playing profile

Bedford Town Bedford Town
Attack
34
Defence
78
Form
59
Chorley Chorley
Attack
41
Defence
50
Form
41
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Bedford Town
0
Draw
1
Chorley
21 Feb 2026 National League North 2–0
22 Nov 2025 National League North 0–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Oxford City Oxford City 13 27
2 Hereford Hereford 13 26
3 South Shields South Shields 13 26
4 Macclesfield Macclesfield 12 24
5 Chester Chester 13 23
6 Buxton Buxton 14 23
7 Bedford Town Bedford Town 13 22
8 Hednesford Town Hednesford Town 14 21
9 King's Lynn Town King's Lynn Town 14 21
10 Morecambe Morecambe 13 20
11 Chorley Chorley 13 20
12 Worksop Town Worksop Town 14 20
13 Hebburn Town Hebburn Town 13 19
14 Spalding United Spalding United 13 18
15 Marine Marine 13 16
16 Harborough Town Harborough Town 13 16
17 AFC Telford United AFC Telford United 14 16
18 Brackley Town Brackley Town 14 16
19 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic 13 15
20 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 14 15
21 Radcliffe Radcliffe 14 15
22 Darlington 1883 Darlington 1883 14 11
23 Southport Southport 13 10
24 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 13 7
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bedford Town vs Chorley?
The model gives Bedford Town a 45% win probability, 24% for a draw, and 29% for an Chorley win.
How many goals are expected in Bedford Town vs Chorley?
Expected goals: Bedford Town 1.9, Chorley 1.4 (total 3.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Bedford Town vs Chorley?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.63%.