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Belarus - Finland

UEFA Nations League October 06, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Belarus
#3 · 0 pts
vs
Finland
#2 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
81.81%
Win
Belarus
8.5%
Draw
9.69%
Win
Finland
4.44
Expected xG
1.4
Most likely outcome
Belarus
81.81%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 4–1 (7.19%)
1X2 Result
1 82%
X 9%
2 10%
Double Chance
1X 90%
X2 18%
12 92%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 85%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Belarus a 81% win probability, against 8% for a draw and 9% for Finland. Expected goals are 4.4 for Belarus and 1.4 for Finland (total 5.8), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 4–1 at 7.19% probability.

Season Stats

Belarus
1W 4D 1L
Finland
0W 0D 6L
Averages per game
0.5
Goals
0.3
0.7
Conceded
2.2
3.0
Shots OT
1.8
4.3
Corners
3.2
41%
Poss.
43%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
83%
0%
O 2.5
50%
33%
BTTS
33%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
17%
BTTS
Belarus
0W 3D 0L · at home
Finland
0W 0D 3L · away
0.3
gls/g
0.0
0.3
Conceded
2.0
0%
Win %
0%
100%
Win or Draw
0%
33%
O 1.5
67%
0%
O 2.5
33%
0%
O 3.5
0%
33%
BTTS
0%
67%
Clean Sht
0%
67%
Failed to Score
100%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Belarus Finland →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% — —
1 1.3% 1.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
2 2.9% 4.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
3 4.3% 5.9% 4.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
4 4.7% 6.6% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
5 4.2% 5.9% 4.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%

Recent form

Belarus Belarus
D Bulgaria 1–1
L Northern Ireland 2–0
D Luxembourg 1–1
D Northern Ireland 0–0
W Luxembourg 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 23%
Finland Finland
L Greece 0–2
L Rep. Of Ireland 1–0
L England 1–3
L Rep. Of Ireland 1–2
L England 2–0

Playing profile

Belarus Belarus
Attack
49
Defence
64
Form
40
Finland Finland
Attack
27
Defence
55
Form
31
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 1

# Team G Pts
1 Albania Albania 0 0
2 Finland Finland 0 0
3 Belarus Belarus 0 0
4 San Marino San Marino 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 1

Top 2 advance to the next round

Belarus Finland
Current #3 #2
→ Belarus #1 #3
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Finland #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Belarus vs Finland?
The model gives Belarus a 81% win probability, 8% for a draw, and 9% for an Finland win.
How many goals are expected in Belarus vs Finland?
Expected goals: Belarus 4.4, Finland 1.4 (total 5.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in Belarus vs Finland?
4–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.19%.