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Belarus - San Marino

UEFA Nations League October 03, 2026 18:00 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Belarus
#3 · 0 pts
vs
San Marino
#4 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
90.29%
Win
Belarus
5.03%
Draw
4.68%
Win
San Marino
4.5
Expected xG
0.77
Most likely outcome
Belarus
90.29%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 4–0 (9.6%)
1X2 Result
1 90%
X 5%
2 5%
Double Chance
1X 95%
X2 10%
12 95%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 84%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Belarus a 90% win probability, against 5% for a draw and 4% for San Marino. Expected goals are 4.5 for Belarus and 0.8 for San Marino (total 5.3), with a 91% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 4–0 at 9.6% probability.

Season Stats

Belarus
1W 4D 1L
San Marino
2W 1D 1L
Averages per game
0.5
Goals
1.2
0.7
Conceded
0.8
3.0
Shots OT
3.5
4.3
Corners
4.0
41%
Poss.
48%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
50%
0%
O 2.5
25%
33%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
42%
BTTS
Belarus
0W 3D 0L · at home
San Marino
1W 0D 1L · away
0.3
gls/g
1.5
0.3
Conceded
1.0
0%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
50%
33%
O 1.5
50%
0%
O 2.5
50%
0%
O 3.5
50%
33%
BTTS
50%
67%
Clean Sht
0%
67%
Failed to Score
50%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Belarus San Marino →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% — — —
1 2.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% — —
2 5.2% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% —
3 7.8% 6.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% —
4 8.8% 6.8% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% —
5 7.9% 6.1% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% —

Recent form

Belarus Belarus
D Bulgaria 1–1
L Northern Ireland 2–0
D Luxembourg 1–1
D Northern Ireland 0–0
W Luxembourg 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
San Marino San Marino
W Liechtenstein 1–3
D Gibraltar 1–1
L Gibraltar 1–0
W Liechtenstein 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Belarus Belarus
Attack
49
Defence
64
Form
40
San Marino San Marino
Attack
20
Defence
46
Form
1
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 1

# Team G Pts
1 Albania Albania 0 0
2 Finland Finland 0 0
3 Belarus Belarus 0 0
4 San Marino San Marino 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 1

Top 2 advance to the next round

Belarus San Marino
Current #3 #4
→ Belarus #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #2
→ San Marino #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Belarus vs San Marino?
The model gives Belarus a 90% win probability, 5% for a draw, and 4% for an San Marino win.
How many goals are expected in Belarus vs San Marino?
Expected goals: Belarus 4.5, San Marino 0.8 (total 5.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 91%.
What is the most likely score in Belarus vs San Marino?
4–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.6%.