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World Cup · Round of 32 July 01, 2026 22:00 Lumen Field, Seattle
Belgium
#1 · 5 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Senegal
#3 · 3 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Belgium
R. Lukaku (ast. T. Meunier) 86'
Y. Tielemans (ast. L. Trossard) 89'
Y. Tielemans 120'+5 (pen.)
25' H. Diarra
51' (ast. M. Niakhate) I. Sarr
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Belgium a 65% win probability (draw 20%, Senegal 14%). The final result was Belgium 3–2 Senegal.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
15
5
Shots on target
5
1.80
Actual xG
3.22
3
Saves
3
52%
Possession
48%
4
Corners
2
12
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
25'
H. Diarra⚽
↕ C. De Ketelaere / R. Lukaku
46'
51'
ast. M. Niakhate · I. Sarr⚽
↕ K. De Bruyne / N. Raskin
56'
↕ J. Doku / D. Lukebakio
56'
↕ H. Vanaken / D. Moreira
63'
B. Mechele
64'
66'
L. Camara / P. Gueye ↕
67'
L. Camara
73'
I. Mbaye / I. Ndiaye ↕
73'
P. M. Sarr / H. Diarra ↕
↕ M. De Cuyper / T. Meunier
78'
⚽R. Lukaku · ast. T. Meunier
86'
⚽Y. Tielemans · ast. L. Trossard
89'
R. Garcia
90'
93'
N. Jackson / S. Mane ↕
93'
M. Diouf / I. Jakobs ↕
96'
B. Sapoko Ndiaye / I. Gueye ↕
↕ L. Trossard / A. Onana
109'
⚽Y. Tielemans (pen.)
120'+5
Pre-match prediction
65.11%
Belgium ←
20.72%
X
14.16%
Senegal
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Belgium) 65.11% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Belgium
2.82
1.80
-1.02
Senegal
0.92
3.22
+2.3
Senegal dominated by xG (3.22 vs 1.80). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
Belgium Belgium 4-2-3-1
1 Thibaut Courtois Thibaut Courtois G 6.90
5 Maxim De Cuyper Maxim De Cuyper 78' D 6.30
3 Arthur Theate Arthur Theate D 7.20
4 Brandon Mechele Brandon Mechele D 6.90
21 Timothy Castagne Timothy Castagne D 6.60
20 H. Vanaken H. Vanaken 63' M 6.90
8 Y. Tielemans Y. Tielemans 2 ⚽ M 8.30
11 J. Doku J. Doku 56' M 6.90
7 K. De Bruyne K. De Bruyne 56' M 6.70
10 L. Trossard L. Trossard 1 👟 M 7.30
17 C. De Ketelaere C. De Ketelaere 45' F 6.20
Bench
24 Amadou Onana Amadou Onana 22' M 6.70
22 A. Saelemaekers A. Saelemaekers F
6 Axel Witsel Axel Witsel M
19 Diego Moreira Diego Moreira 68' F 6.90
14 D. Lukebakio D. Lukebakio 75' F 7.00
18 Joaquin Seys Joaquin Seys D
16 Koni De Winter Koni De Winter D
26 Matías Fernández-Pardo Matías Fernández-Pardo F
13 Mike Penders Mike Penders G
23 Nicolas Raskin Nicolas Raskin 75' M 7.00
25 N. Ngoy N. Ngoy D
9 R. Lukaku R. Lukaku 1 ⚽ 86' F 7.70
12 Senne Lammens Senne Lammens G
15 Thomas Meunier Thomas Meunier 1 👟 53' D 7.00
Senegal Senegal 4-3-3
23 Mory Diaw Mory Diaw G 6.00
14 Ismail Jakobs Ismail Jakobs D 6.20
19 Moussa Niakhaté Moussa Niakhaté 1 👟 D 6.60
6 P. Ciss P. Ciss D 6.90
15 Krépin Diatta Krépin Diatta D 6.60
26 P. Gueye P. Gueye 66' M 6.30
5 Idrissa Gana Gueye Idrissa Gana Gueye M 6.60
21 H. Diarra H. Diarra 1 ⚽ 73' M 7.50
10 S. Mané S. Mané F 7.00
18 I. Sarr I. Sarr 1 ⚽ F 8.30
13 I. Ndiaye I. Ndiaye 73' F 6.60
Bench
4 Abdoulaye Seck Abdoulaye Seck D
24 Antoine Mendy Antoine Mendy D
7 Assane Diao Assane Diao F
22 Bara Sapoko Ndiaye Bara Sapoko Ndiaye 35' M 6.60
9 B. Dieng B. Dieng F
12 C. Ndiaye C. Ndiaye F
25 El Hadji Malick Diouf El Hadji Malick Diouf 38' D 6.30
20 Ibrahim Mbaye Ibrahim Mbaye 58' F 6.30
3 K. Koulibaly K. Koulibaly D
8 L. Camara L. Camara 65' M 5.60
2 Mamadou Sarr Mamadou Sarr D
11 N. Jackson N. Jackson 38' F 6.30
17 Pape Matar Sarr Pape Matar Sarr 58' M 6.20
1 Yehvann Diouf Yehvann Diouf G
Best on the pitch
I. Sarr
I. Sarr
F · Senegal
8.30
1 ⚽
4 shots · 28 pass
Y. Tielemans
Y. Tielemans
M · Belgium
8.30
2 ⚽
3 shots · 65 pass
R. Lukaku
R. Lukaku
F · Belgium
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 13 pass
H. Diarra
H. Diarra
M · Senegal
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots · 31 pass
L. Trossard
L. Trossard
M · Belgium
7.30
1 👟
1 shots · 43 pass
Arthur Theate
Arthur Theate
D · Belgium
7.20
· 111 pass
Belgium Belgium — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Thibaut Courtois G 131 6.90 — — — 34 29% — — —
Maxim De Cuyper D 78 6.30 — — 1 29 22% 1 — —
Arthur Theate D 131 7.20 — — — 111 104% — — —
Brandon Mechele D 131 6.90 — — 1 130 121% — 1 —
Timothy Castagne D 131 6.60 — — 1 59 52% 5 — —
H. Vanaken M 63 6.90 — — — 30 29% 1 — —
Y. Tielemans M 131 8.30 2 — 3 65 54% 1 — —
J. Doku M 56 6.90 — — — 16 13% — — —
K. De Bruyne M 56 6.70 — — 2 28 21% — — —
L. Trossard M 109 7.30 — 1 1 43 34% — — —
C. De Ketelaere F 45 6.20 — — — 6 4% 1 — —
Amadou Onana M 22 6.70 — — — 7 6% 1 — —
Diego Moreira F 68 6.90 — — — 14 10% 1 — —
D. Lukebakio F 75 7.00 — — 2 30 22% — — —
Nicolas Raskin M 75 7.00 — — 1 54 47% 1 — —
R. Lukaku F 86 7.70 1 — 1 13 10% — — —
Thomas Meunier D 53 7.00 — 1 1 30 24% — — —
Senegal Senegal — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Mory Diaw G 131 6.00 — — — 50 26% — — —
Ismail Jakobs D 93 6.20 — — — 31 25% 2 — —
Moussa Niakhaté D 131 6.60 — 1 — 80 76% — — —
P. Ciss D 131 6.90 — — — 85 78% — — —
Krépin Diatta D 131 6.60 — — — 83 73% 4 — —
P. Gueye M 66 6.30 — — 1 33 27% — — —
Idrissa Gana Gueye M 96 6.60 — — 2 50 44% — — —
H. Diarra M 73 7.50 1 — 2 31 29% 1 — —
S. Mané F 93 7.00 — — 1 28 24% 1 — —
I. Sarr F 131 8.30 1 — 4 28 19% — — —
I. Ndiaye F 73 6.60 — — 1 27 23% 1 — —
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye M 35 6.60 — — 1 12 11% — — —
El Hadji Malick Diouf D 38 6.30 — — — 16 9% — — —
Ibrahim Mbaye F 58 6.30 — — 2 20 19% 1 — —
L. Camara M 65 5.60 — — — 30 26% 2 1 —
N. Jackson F 38 6.30 — — — 7 3% — — —
Pape Matar Sarr M 58 6.20 — — 1 28 24% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Belgium vs Senegal?
The final score was Belgium 3–2 Senegal.
What did the model predict before Belgium vs Senegal?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Belgium win, 20% to a draw, and 14% to an Senegal win.