✓Model correct — prediction Belgium
R. Lukaku
(ast. T. Meunier)
86'
Y. Tielemans
(ast. L. Trossard)
89'
Y. Tielemans
120'+5
(pen.)
25'
H. Diarra
51'
(ast. M. Niakhate)
I. Sarr
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Belgium a 65% win probability (draw 20%, Senegal 14%). The final result was Belgium 3–2 Senegal.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
15
5
Shots on target
5
1.80
Actual xG
3.22
3
Saves
3
52%
Possession
48%
4
Corners
2
12
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
25'
H. Diarra⚽
C. De Ketelaere
/ R. Lukaku
46'
51'
ast. M. Niakhate ·
I. Sarr⚽
K. De Bruyne
/ N. Raskin
56'
J. Doku
/ D. Lukebakio
56'
H. Vanaken
/ D. Moreira
63'
B. Mechele
64'
66'
L. Camara
/
P. Gueye
67'
L. Camara
73'
I. Mbaye
/
I. Ndiaye
73'
P. M. Sarr
/
H. Diarra
M. De Cuyper
/ T. Meunier
78'
⚽R. Lukaku
· ast. T. Meunier
86'
⚽Y. Tielemans
· ast. L. Trossard
89'
R. Garcia
90'
93'
N. Jackson
/
S. Mane
93'
M. Diouf
/
I. Jakobs
96'
B. Sapoko Ndiaye
/
I. Gueye
L. Trossard
/ A. Onana
109'
⚽Y. Tielemans
(pen.)
120'+5
Pre-match prediction
65.11%
Belgium ←
20.72%
X
14.16%
Senegal
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Belgium)
65.11%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.82
1.80
-1.02
0.92
3.22
+2.3
Senegal dominated by xG (3.22 vs 1.80).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
T. Courtois
G
T. Courtois
G
5
M. De Cuyper
78'
D
M. De Cuyper
78'
D
3
A. Theate
D
A. Theate
D
4
B. Mechele
D
B. Mechele
D
21
T. Castagne
D
T. Castagne
D
20
H. Vanaken
63'
M
H. Vanaken
63'
M
8
Y. Tielemans
2 ⚽
M
Y. Tielemans
2 ⚽
M
11
J. Doku
56'
M
J. Doku
56'
M
7
K. De Bruyne
56'
M
K. De Bruyne
56'
M
10
L. Trossard
1 👟
M
L. Trossard
1 👟
M
17
C. De Ketelaere
45'
F
C. De Ketelaere
45'
F
Bench
24
Amadou Onana
22'
M
Amadou Onana
22'
M
22
A. Saelemaekers
F
A. Saelemaekers
F
6
A. Witsel
M
A. Witsel
M
19
Diego Moreira
68'
F
Diego Moreira
68'
F
14
D. Lukebakio
75'
F
D. Lukebakio
75'
F
18
J. Seys
D
J. Seys
D
16
K. De Winter
D
K. De Winter
D
26
M. Fernandez-Pardo
F
M. Fernandez-Pardo
F
13
M. Penders
G
M. Penders
G
25
N. Ngoy
D
N. Ngoy
D
23
N. Raskin
75'
M
N. Raskin
75'
M
9
R. Lukaku
1 ⚽
86'
F
R. Lukaku
1 ⚽
86'
F
12
S. Lammens
G
S. Lammens
G
15
T. Meunier
1 👟
53'
D
T. Meunier
1 👟
53'
D
23
M. Diaw
G
M. Diaw
G
14
Ismail Jakobs
D
Ismail Jakobs
D
19
M. Niakhaté
1 👟
D
M. Niakhaté
1 👟
D
6
P. Ciss
D
P. Ciss
D
15
Krépin Diatta
D
Krépin Diatta
D
26
P. Gueye
66'
M
P. Gueye
66'
M
5
I. Gueye
M
I. Gueye
M
21
H. Diarra
1 ⚽
73'
M
H. Diarra
1 ⚽
73'
M
10
S. Mané
F
S. Mané
F
18
I. Sarr
1 ⚽
F
I. Sarr
1 ⚽
F
13
I. Ndiaye
73'
F
I. Ndiaye
73'
F
Bench
24
A. Mendy
D
A. Mendy
D
4
A. Seck
D
A. Seck
D
7
Assane Diao
F
Assane Diao
F
22
Bara Ndiaye
35'
M
Bara Ndiaye
35'
M
9
B. Dieng
F
B. Dieng
F
12
C. Ndiaye
F
C. Ndiaye
F
25
E. Diouf
38'
D
E. Diouf
38'
D
20
I. Mbaye
58'
F
I. Mbaye
58'
F
3
K. Koulibaly
D
K. Koulibaly
D
8
L. Camara
65'
M
L. Camara
65'
M
2
M. Sarr
D
M. Sarr
D
11
N. Jackson
38'
F
N. Jackson
38'
F
17
P. Sarr
58'
M
P. Sarr
58'
M
1
Y. Diouf
G
Y. Diouf
G
Best on the pitch
I. Sarr
F · Senegal
8.30
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 28 pass
Y. Tielemans
M · Belgium
8.30
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 65 pass
R. Lukaku
F · Belgium
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 13 pass
H. Diarra
M · Senegal
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 31 pass
L. Trossard
M · Belgium
7.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 43 pass
A. Theate
D · Belgium
7.20
· 111 pass
Belgium — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Courtois | G | 131 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 29% | — | — | — |
| M. De Cuyper | D | 78 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Theate | D | 131 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 111 | 104% | — | — | — |
| B. Mechele | D | 131 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 130 | 121% | — | 1 | — |
| T. Castagne | D | 131 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 52% | 5 | — | — |
| H. Vanaken | M | 63 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 131 | 8.30 | 2 | — | 3 | 65 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Doku | M | 56 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| K. De Bruyne | M | 56 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 21% | — | — | — |
| L. Trossard | M | 109 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 43 | 34% | — | — | — |
| C. De Ketelaere | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Amadou Onana | M | 22 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Diego Moreira | F | 68 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Lukebakio | F | 75 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 22% | — | — | — |
| N. Raskin | M | 75 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Lukaku | F | 86 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| T. Meunier | D | 53 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 30 | 24% | — | — | — |
Senegal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Diaw | G | 131 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 50 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Ismail Jakobs | D | 93 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Niakhaté | D | 131 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 80 | 76% | — | — | — |
| P. Ciss | D | 131 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 85 | 78% | — | — | — |
| Krépin Diatta | D | 131 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 83 | 73% | 4 | — | — |
| P. Gueye | M | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 27% | — | — | — |
| I. Gueye | M | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 50 | 44% | — | — | — |
| H. Diarra | M | 73 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 31 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Mané | F | 93 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Sarr | F | 131 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 4 | 28 | 19% | — | — | — |
| I. Ndiaye | F | 73 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Bara Ndiaye | M | 35 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 11% | — | — | — |
| E. Diouf | D | 38 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 9% | — | — | — |
| I. Mbaye | F | 58 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Camara | M | 65 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | 2 | 1 | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 38 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 3% | — | — | — |
| P. Sarr | M | 58 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Belgium vs Senegal?
The final score was Belgium 3–2 Senegal.
What did the model predict before Belgium vs Senegal?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Belgium win, 20% to a draw, and 14% to an Senegal win.