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Benfica - AZ Alkmaar

Europa League January 28, 2027 21:00
Benfica
#4 · 0 pts
vs
AZ Alkmaar
#3 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
51.08%
Win
Benfica
22.14%
Draw
26.78%
Win
AZ Alkmaar
2.93
Expected xG
1.84

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.1%)
1X2 Result
1 51%
X 22%
2 27%
Double Chance ✓ 100.0% hit rate (10 picks)
1X 73%
X2 49%
12 78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 74%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Benfica a 51% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 26% for AZ Alkmaar. Expected goals are 2.9 for Benfica and 1.8 for AZ Alkmaar (total 4.8), with a 86% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.1% probability.

Score Matrix

↕ Benfica AZ Alkmaar →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.8% 1.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
1 2.5% 4.6% 4.2% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4%
2 3.6% 6.7% 6.2% 3.8% 1.7% 0.6%
3 3.5% 6.5% 6.0% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6%
4 2.6% 4.8% 4.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5%
5 1.5% 2.8% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%

Recent form

Benfica Benfica
W Aarhus 1–3
W Aarhus 3–1
D Heart Of Midlothian 1–1
W Heart Of Midlothian 6–1
W FC ST. Gallen 5–0
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
No data available

Playing profile

Benfica Benfica
Attack
74
Defence
83
Form
77
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
Attack
74
Defence
72
Form
78
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0 0
2 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia 0 0
3 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0 0
4 Benfica Benfica 0 0
5 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 0 0
6 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0 0
7 Celje Celje 0 0
8 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0 0
9 Celtic Celtic 0 0
10 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0 0
11 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 0 0
12 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0 0
13 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 0 0
14 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 0 0
15 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 0 0
16 Juventus Juventus 0 0
17 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0 0
18 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0 0
19 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 0 0
20 Lillestrom Lillestrom 0 0
21 Lyon Lyon 0 0
22 Marseille Marseille 0 0
23 AC Milan AC Milan 0 0
24 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0 0
25 OFI OFI 0 0
26 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 0 0
27 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 0 0
28 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0 0
29 Rennes Rennes 0 0
30 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 0 0
31 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 0 0
32 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0 0
33 Sunderland Sunderland 0 0
34 Torreense Torreense 0 0
35 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 0 0
36 Plzen Plzen 0 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model gives Benfica a 51% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 26% for an AZ Alkmaar win.
How many goals are expected in Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar?
Expected goals: Benfica 2.9, AZ Alkmaar 1.8 (total 4.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 86%.
What is the most likely score in Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.1%.