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Benfica - AZ Alkmaar

Europa League January 28, 2027 21:00
Benfica
#1 · 9 pts
vs
AZ Alkmaar
#10 · 6 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
51.08%
Win
Benfica
22.14%
Draw
26.78%
Win
AZ Alkmaar
2.93
Expected xG
1.84

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.1%)
1X2 Result ✓ 65.4% hit rate (26 picks)
1 51%
X 22%
2 27%
Double Chance ✓ 92.3% hit rate (26 picks)
1X 73%
X2 49%
12 78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 74%
✓ 68.4% hit rate (79 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Benfica a 51% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 26% for AZ Alkmaar. Expected goals are 2.9 for Benfica and 1.8 for AZ Alkmaar (total 4.8), with a 86% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.1% probability.

Season Stats

Benfica
7W 1D 1L
AZ Alkmaar
2W 0D 1L
Averages per game
3.2
Goals
2.0
0.9
Conceded
0.7
8.9
Shots OT
6.0
6.1
Corners
5.3
61%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
67%
78%
O 2.5
67%
78%
BTTS
33%
22%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 9 matches in Europa League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
75%
O 3.5
38%
BTTS
Benfica
4W 0D 0L · at home
AZ Alkmaar
1W 0D 1L · away
4.5
gls/g
2.0
0.8
Conceded
0.5
100%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
100%
O 2.5
50%
100%
O 3.5
50%
75%
BTTS
0%
25%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Benfica AZ Alkmaar →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.8% 1.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
1 2.5% 4.6% 4.2% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4%
2 3.6% 6.7% 6.2% 3.8% 1.7% 0.6%
3 3.5% 6.5% 6.0% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6%
4 2.6% 4.8% 4.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5%
5 1.5% 2.8% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%

Recent form

Benfica Benfica
W Omonia Nicosia 1–4
W Celtic 4–1
W AC Milan 0–2
W Aarhus 1–3
W Aarhus 3–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
W Ararat-Armenia 0–4
W Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1
L Sunderland 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 29%

Playing profile

Benfica Benfica
Attack
63
Defence
67
Form
77
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
Attack
45
Defence
63
Form
47
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Benfica Benfica 3 9
2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3 9
3 Bournemouth Bournemouth 3 9
4 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 3 9
5 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 3 9
6 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 3 7
7 Juventus Juventus 3 7
8 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 3 7
9 Sunderland Sunderland 3 7
10 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3 6
11 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 3 6
12 Lyon Lyon 3 6
13 Rennes Rennes 3 5
14 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 3 4
15 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 3 4
16 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 3 4
17 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 3 4
18 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3 4
19 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3 4
20 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3 4
21 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 3 4
22 Anderlecht Anderlecht 3 3
23 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 3 3
24 AC Milan AC Milan 3 3
25 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3 3
26 OFI OFI 3 3
27 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 3 3
28 Torreense Torreense 3 3
29 Celje Celje 3 1
30 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 3 1
31 Lillestrom Lillestrom 3 1
32 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3 1
33 Plzen Plzen 3 0
34 Marseille Marseille 3 0
35 Celtic Celtic 3 0
36 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia 3 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model gives Benfica a 51% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 26% for an AZ Alkmaar win.
How many goals are expected in Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar?
Expected goals: Benfica 2.9, AZ Alkmaar 1.8 (total 4.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 86%.
What is the most likely score in Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.1%.