Benfica 4–1 Celtic — pre-match prediction — Europa League — October 15, 2026

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Europa League · League Stage - 2 October 15, 2026 21:00 Estádio da Luz, Lisbon

Benfica

#1 · 9 pts

4 – 1

Final score

Celtic

#35 · 0 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Benfica

Jhon Durán 5' (pen.)

Alexander Bah (ast. Gianluca Prestianni) 23'

Jhon Durán (ast. Gianluca Prestianni) 36'

Vangelis Pavlidis (ast. Tomás Araújo) 89'

63' (ast. Haissem Hassan) Camilo Duran

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Benfica a 67% win probability (draw 15%, Celtic 17%). The final result was Benfica 4–1 Celtic.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.78

Actual xG

1.31

Saves

53%

Possession

47%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽Jhon Durán (pen.)

⚽Alexander Bah · ast. Gianluca Prestianni

23'

⚽Jhon Durán · ast. Gianluca Prestianni

36'

Samuel Dahl

44'

45'

Haissem Hassan / Kasper Hogh ↕

45'

Callum Osmand / Sebastian Tounekti ↕

57'

Benjamin Nygren / Oliver Sorensen ↕

57'

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain / Mika Baur ↕

63'

ast. Haissem Hassan · Camilo Duran⚽

↕ Heorhii Sudakov / Claudio Echeverri

64'

↕ Samuel Dahl / Souffian El Karouani

64'

↕ Jhon Durán / Vangelis Pavlidis

67'

↕ Dodi Lukebakio / Andreas Schjelderup

68'

Alexander Bah

69'

77'

Jordan Lotomba / Colby Donovan ↕

↕ Alexander Bah / Alessandro Circati

80'

João Palhinha

85'

⚽Vangelis Pavlidis · ast. Tomás Araújo

89'

Pre-match prediction

67.41%

Benfica ←

15.54%

17.05%

Celtic

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Benfica) 67.41% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Benfica

3.76

2.78

-0.98

Celtic

1.79

1.31

-0.48

Benfica dominated by xG (2.78 vs 1.31). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Benfica	3	9
2	Bayer Leverkusen	3	9
3	Bournemouth	3	9
4	Ferencvarosi TC	3	9
5	Olympiakos Piraeus	3	9
6	Union St. Gilloise	3	7
7	Juventus	3	7
8	Beşiktaş	3	7
9	Sunderland	3	7
10	AZ Alkmaar	3	6
11	Omonia Nicosia	3	6
12	Lyon	3	6
13	Rennes	3	5
14	Real Sociedad	3	4
15	Crystal Palace	3	4
16	Sparta Praha	3	4
17	Levski Sofia	3	4
18	Dinamo Zagreb	3	4
19	Sturm Graz	3	4
20	NEC Nijmegen	3	4
21	Red Bull Salzburg	3	4
22	Anderlecht	3	3
23	1899 Hoffenheim	3	3
24	AC Milan	3	3
25	Celta Vigo	3	3
26	OFI	3	3
27	Jagiellonia	3	3
28	Torreense	3	3
29	Celje	3	1
30	Hapoel Beer Sheva	3	1
31	Lillestrom	3	1
32	Lech Poznan	3	1
33	Plzen	3	0
34	Marseille	3	0
35	Celtic	3	0
36	Ararat-Armenia	3	0

Lineups

Benfica 4-2-3-1

A. Trubin G 7.82

S. Dahl 64' D 6.36

C. Lenglet D 7.14

Tomás Araújo 1 👟 D 7.54

A. Bah 1 ⚽ 80' D 7.29

João Palhinha M 7.05

F. Aursnes M 7.19

G. Prestianni 2 👟 M 8.60

H. Sudakov 64' M 6.92

D. Lukebakio 68' M 6.21

J. Durán 2 ⚽ 67' F 8.20

Bench

A. Cabral F 0.00

A. Circati 10' D 6.23

A. Schjelderup 22' F 6.64

C. Echeverri 26' M 6.31

Gabriel Indio D 0.00

L. Barreiro M 0.00

Manu M 0.00

Rafa M 0.00

Samuel Soares G 0.00

S. El Karouani 26' D 6.33

V. Pavlidis 1 ⚽ 23' F 7.80

Celtic 4-2-3-1

V. Sinisalo G 5.61

K. Tierney D 6.74

A. Trusty D 6.13

D. Murray D 6.17

Colby Donovan 77' D 5.43

M. Baur 57' M 6.59

C. McGregor M 6.55

S. Tounekti 45' M 6.33

O. Sørensen 57' M 5.78

C. Durán 1 ⚽ M 7.33

K. Høgh 45' F 6.31

Bench

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain 33' M 5.73

A. Ralston D 0.00

B. Nygren 33' F 6.25

C. Osmand 45' F 6.41

H. Hassan 1 👟 45' F 7.30

J. Forrest M 0.00

J. Lotomba 13' D 5.80

L. Clearie M 0.00

L. McCowan M 0.00

L. Scales D 0.00

S. Johnstone G 0.00

Best on the pitch

G. Prestianni

M · Benfica

8.60

2 👟

7 shots · 50 pass

J. Durán

F · Benfica

8.20

2 ⚽

5 shots · 8 pass

A. Trubin

G · Benfica

7.82

· 17 pass

V. Pavlidis

F · Benfica

7.80

1 ⚽

2 shots · 7 pass

Tomás Araújo

D · Benfica

7.54

1 👟

3 shots · 75 pass

C. Durán

M · Celtic

7.33

1 ⚽

4 shots · 13 pass

Benfica — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
A. Trubin	G	90	7.82	—	—	0	17	15%	0	—	—
S. Dahl	D	64	6.36	—	—	0	34	33%	0	1	—
C. Lenglet	D	90	7.14	—	—	0	83	78%	0	—	—
Tomás Araújo	D	90	7.54	—	1	3	75	71%	5	—	—
A. Bah	D	80	7.29	1	—	1	63	54%	3	1	—
João Palhinha	M	90	7.05	—	—	1	72	67%	1	1	—
F. Aursnes	M	90	7.19	—	—	1	63	61%	2	—	—
G. Prestianni	M	90	8.60	—	2	7	50	40%	2	—	—
H. Sudakov	M	64	6.92	—	—	2	37	33%	0	—	—
D. Lukebakio	M	68	6.21	—	—	2	33	29%	0	—	—
J. Durán	F	67	8.20	2	—	5	8	6%	0	—	—
A. Circati	D	10	6.23	—	—	0	3	3%	0	—	—
A. Schjelderup	F	22	6.64	—	—	2	9	8%	1	—	—
C. Echeverri	M	26	6.31	—	—	0	12	12%	0	—	—
S. El Karouani	D	26	6.33	—	—	0	11	10%	1	—	—
V. Pavlidis	F	23	7.80	1	—	2	7	6%	0	—	—

Celtic — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
V. Sinisalo	G	90	5.61	—	—	0	44	37%	0	—	—
K. Tierney	D	90	6.74	—	—	1	57	52%	2	—	—
A. Trusty	D	90	6.13	—	—	0	84	80%	0	—	—
D. Murray	D	90	6.17	—	—	0	79	72%	1	—	—
Colby Donovan	D	77	5.43	—	—	0	29	23%	5	—	—
M. Baur	M	57	6.59	—	—	1	21	18%	5	—	—
C. McGregor	M	90	6.55	—	—	0	72	70%	0	—	—
S. Tounekti	M	45	6.33	—	—	1	13	13%	1	—	—
O. Sørensen	M	57	5.78	—	—	0	14	10%	2	—	—
C. Durán	M	90	7.33	1	—	4	13	11%	0	—	—
K. Høgh	F	45	6.31	—	—	2	12	11%	0	—	—
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain	M	33	5.73	—	—	0	17	10%	0	—	—
B. Nygren	F	33	6.25	—	—	0	23	21%	0	—	—
C. Osmand	F	45	6.41	—	—	3	10	7%	0	—	—
H. Hassan	F	45	7.30	—	1	2	18	14%	1	—	—
J. Lotomba	D	13	5.80	—	—	0	7	6%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Benfica vs Celtic?

The final score was Benfica 4–1 Celtic.

What did the model predict before Benfica vs Celtic?

The model assigned 67% probability to a Benfica win, 15% to a draw, and 17% to an Celtic win.