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Benfica - Celtic

Europa League October 15, 2026 21:00
Benfica
#4 · 0 pts
vs
Celtic
#9 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
58.38%
Win
Benfica
20.31%
Draw
21.3%
Win
Celtic
3.23
Expected xG
1.46
Most likely outcome
Benfica
58.38%
Probability
50.0%
1X2 accuracy · 10 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.67%)
1X2 Result
1 58%
X 20%
2 21%
Double Chance ✓ 100.0% hit rate (10 picks)
1X 79%
X2 42%
12 80%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 73%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Benfica a 58% win probability, against 20% for a draw and 21% for Celtic. Expected goals are 3.2 for Benfica and 1.5 for Celtic (total 4.7), with a 86% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.67% probability.

Season Stats

Benfica
4W 1D 1L
Celtic
4W 2D 4L
Averages per game
3.2
Goals
1.5
1.0
Conceded
1.9
10.3
Shots OT
3.9
7.3
Corners
5.2
67%
Poss.
49%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
90%
83%
O 2.5
70%
83%
BTTS
70%
17%
Clean Sht
10%
ℹ Based on the last 10 matches in Europa League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
80%
O 3.5
74%
BTTS
Benfica
3W 0D 0L · at home
Celtic
2W 2D 1L · away
4.7
gls/g
1.6
0.7
Conceded
1.4
100%
Win %
40%
100%
Win or Draw
80%
100%
O 1.5
80%
100%
O 2.5
60%
100%
O 3.5
60%
67%
BTTS
80%
33%
Clean Sht
20%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Benfica Celtic →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
1 3.0% 4.4% 3.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
2 4.8% 7.0% 5.1% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
3 5.2% 7.5% 5.5% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3%
4 4.2% 6.1% 4.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2%
5 2.7% 3.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Recent form

Benfica Benfica
W Aarhus 1–3
W Aarhus 3–1
D Heart Of Midlothian 1–1
W Heart Of Midlothian 6–1
W FC ST. Gallen 5–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 26%
Celtic Celtic
W VfB Stuttgart 0–1
L VfB Stuttgart 1–4
W Utrecht 4–2
D Bologna 2–2
L AS Roma 0–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 22%

Playing profile

Benfica Benfica
Attack
74
Defence
83
Form
77
Celtic Celtic
Attack
66
Defence
66
Form
69
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0 0
2 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia 0 0
3 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0 0
4 Benfica Benfica 0 0
5 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 0 0
6 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0 0
7 Celje Celje 0 0
8 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0 0
9 Celtic Celtic 0 0
10 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0 0
11 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 0 0
12 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0 0
13 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 0 0
14 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 0 0
15 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 0 0
16 Juventus Juventus 0 0
17 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0 0
18 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0 0
19 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 0 0
20 Lillestrom Lillestrom 0 0
21 Lyon Lyon 0 0
22 Marseille Marseille 0 0
23 AC Milan AC Milan 0 0
24 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0 0
25 OFI OFI 0 0
26 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 0 0
27 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 0 0
28 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0 0
29 Rennes Rennes 0 0
30 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 0 0
31 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 0 0
32 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0 0
33 Sunderland Sunderland 0 0
34 Torreense Torreense 0 0
35 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 0 0
36 Plzen Plzen 0 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Benfica vs Celtic?
The model gives Benfica a 58% win probability, 20% for a draw, and 21% for an Celtic win.
How many goals are expected in Benfica vs Celtic?
Expected goals: Benfica 3.2, Celtic 1.5 (total 4.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 86%.
What is the most likely score in Benfica vs Celtic?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.67%.