Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 21, 2026 19:00 Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

Benfica

#3 · 13 pts

3 – 0

Final score

Vitória SC

#12 · 4 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Benfica

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Benfica a 72% win probability (draw 15%, Vitória SC 11%). The final result was Benfica 3–0 Vitória SC. In 1 previous meetings, Benfica have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Vitória SC.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

2

2.02

Actual xG

0.77

49%

Possession

51%

4

Corners

8

Pre-match prediction

72.63%

Benfica ←

15.65%

X

11.72%

Vitória

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Benfica) 72.63% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Benfica

2.83

2.02

-0.81

Vitória

1.24

0.77

-0.47

Benfica dominated by xG (2.02 vs 0.77). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	18
2	Santa Clara	6	14
3	Benfica	5	13
4	Sporting CP	5	13
5	Arouca	6	10
6	Estrela	5	9
7	Academico Viseu	6	8
8	GIL Vicente	4	7
9	SC Braga	4	7
10	Maritimo	5	7
11	Alverca	6	5
12	Vitória SC	6	4
13	Nacional	6	4
14	Moreirense	5	4
15	Famalicao	5	3
16	Rio Ave	5	3
17	Estoril	5	2
18	Casa Pia	6	1