Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 21, 2026 19:00 Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

Benfica

#2 · 22 pts

3 – 0

Final score

Vitória SC

#13 · 8 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Benfica

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Benfica a 72% win probability (draw 15%, Vitória SC 11%). The final result was Benfica 3–0 Vitória SC. In 2 previous meetings, Benfica have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Vitória SC.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

2

2.02

Actual xG

0.77

49%

Possession

51%

4

Corners

8

Pre-match prediction

72.63%

Benfica ←

15.65%

X

11.72%

Vitória

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Benfica) 72.63% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Benfica

2.83

2.02

-0.81

Vitória

1.24

0.77

-0.47

Benfica dominated by xG (2.02 vs 0.77). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	27
2	Benfica	9	22
3	Sporting CP	9	18
4	Santa Clara	9	18
5	Arouca	9	17
6	Academico Viseu	9	17
7	GIL Vicente	9	14
8	Alverca	9	11
9	SC Braga	9	11
10	Moreirense	9	11
11	Famalicao	9	10
12	Estrela	9	10
13	Vitória SC	9	8
14	Maritimo	9	8
15	Nacional	9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	7
17	Rio Ave	9	7
18	Estoril	9	2