Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 21, 2026 19:00 Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon

Benfica

#3 · 80 pts

3 – 0

Final score

Guimaraes

#9 · 42 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Benfica

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Benfica a 72% win probability (draw 15%, Guimaraes 11%). The final result was Benfica 3–0 Guimaraes. In 1 previous meetings, Benfica have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Guimaraes.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

2

2.02

Actual xG

0.77

49%

Possession

51%

4

Corners

8

Pre-match prediction

72.63%

Benfica ←

15.65%

X

11.72%

Guimaraes

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Benfica) 72.63% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Benfica

2.83

2.02

-0.81

Guimaraes

1.24

0.77

-0.47

Benfica dominated by xG (2.02 vs 0.77). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	88
2	Sporting CP	34	82
3	Benfica	34	80
4	SC Braga	34	59
5	Famalicao	34	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	50
7	Moreirense	34	43
8	Arouca	34	42
9	Guimaraes	34	42
10	Estoril	34	39
11	Alverca	34	39
12	Rio Ave	34	36
13	Santa Clara	34	36
14	Nacional	34	34
15	Estrela	34	30
16	Casa Pia	34	30
17	Tondela	34	28
18	AVS	34	21