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Benfica - Lech Poznan

Europa League November 05, 2026 21:00
Benfica
#7 · 3 pts
vs
Lech Poznan
#35 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
56.29%
Win
Benfica
19.95%
Draw
23.76%
Win
Lech Poznan
2.8
Expected xG
1.61
Most likely outcome
Benfica
56.29%
Probability
64.3%
1X2 accuracy · 14 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.47%)
1X2 Result
1 56%
X 20%
2 24%
Double Chance ✓ 100.0% hit rate (14 picks)
1X 76%
X2 44%
12 80%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 77%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Benfica a 56% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 23% for Lech Poznan. Expected goals are 2.8 for Benfica and 1.6 for Lech Poznan (total 4.4), with a 88% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.47% probability.

Season Stats

Benfica
5W 1D 1L
Lech Poznan
4W 1D 2L
Averages per game
3.0
Goals
2.6
0.9
Conceded
1.7
9.0
Shots OT
6.0
6.0
Corners
4.6
61%
Poss.
41%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
86%
71%
O 2.5
86%
71%
BTTS
43%
29%
Clean Sht
43%
ℹ Based on the last 7 matches in Europa League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
88%
O 3.5
59%
BTTS
Benfica
3W 0D 0L · at home
Lech Poznan
2W 1D 1L · away
4.7
gls/g
2.2
0.7
Conceded
1.8
100%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
75%
100%
O 1.5
100%
100%
O 2.5
100%
100%
O 3.5
75%
67%
BTTS
50%
33%
Clean Sht
25%
0%
Failed to Score
25%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Benfica Lech Poznan →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
1 3.4% 5.5% 4.4% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3%
2 4.8% 7.7% 6.2% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4%
3 4.5% 7.2% 5.8% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%
4 3.1% 5.0% 4.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
5 1.7% 2.8% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%

Recent form

Benfica Benfica
W AC Milan 0–2
W Aarhus 1–3
W Aarhus 3–1
D Heart Of Midlothian 1–1
W Heart Of Midlothian 6–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 24%
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
L Crystal Palace 4–0
D FC Thun 2–2
W FC Thun 7–0
W KI Klaksvik 0–5
W KI Klaksvik 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Benfica Benfica
Attack
63
Defence
75
Form
74
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
Attack
56
Defence
62
Form
48
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Juventus Juventus 1 3
2 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1 3
3 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 1 3
4 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1 3
5 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 1 3
6 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 1 3
7 Benfica Benfica 1 3
8 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1 3
9 OFI OFI 1 3
10 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1 3
11 Lyon Lyon 1 3
12 Torreense Torreense 1 3
13 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 1 3
14 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 1 3
15 Sunderland Sunderland 1 3
16 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 1 3
17 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1 1
18 Rennes Rennes 1 1
19 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1 1
20 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva 1 1
21 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 1 0
22 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1 0
23 Anderlecht Anderlecht 1 0
24 Lillestrom Lillestrom 1 0
25 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1 0
26 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1 0
27 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 1 0
28 Celtic Celtic 1 0
29 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 1 0
30 AC Milan AC Milan 1 0
31 Celje Celje 1 0
32 Marseille Marseille 1 0
33 Ararat-Armenia Ararat-Armenia 1 0
34 Plzen Plzen 1 0
35 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1 0
36 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
The model gives Benfica a 56% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 23% for an Lech Poznan win.
How many goals are expected in Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Expected goals: Benfica 2.8, Lech Poznan 1.6 (total 4.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 88%.
What is the most likely score in Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.47%.