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Birmingham - Brentford

EFL Cup August 25, 2026 16:00
Birmingham
vs
Brentford
⚡ Pre-match analysis
39.22%
Win
Birmingham
30.17%
Draw
30.61%
Win
Brentford
2.46
Expected xG
1.26

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.8%)
1X2 Result
1 39%
X 30%
2 31%
Double Chance
1X 69%
X2 61%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 56%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Birmingham a 39% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Brentford. Expected goals are 2.5 for Birmingham and 1.3 for Brentford (total 3.7), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.8% probability.

Season Stats

Birmingham
2W 0D 1L
Brentford
2W 1D 1L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
2.0
0.7
Conceded
0.8
2.0
Shots OT
3.3
6.3
Corners
2.5
54%
Poss.
45%
Percentages
33%
O 1.5
100%
33%
O 2.5
25%
33%
BTTS
25%
33%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in EFL Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
17%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
Birmingham
1W 0D 1L · at home
Brentford
2W 0D 1L · away
1.0
gls/g
2.3
1.0
Conceded
0.7
50%
Win %
67%
50%
Win or Draw
67%
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
33%
0%
O 3.5
33%
50%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
67%
50%
Failed to Score
33%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Birmingham Brentford →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.4% 3.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
1 6.0% 7.5% 4.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
2 7.4% 9.3% 5.8% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
3 6.0% 7.6% 4.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
4 3.7% 4.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
5 1.8% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% —

Recent form

Birmingham Birmingham
W Swansea 0–1
L Port Vale 0–1
W Sheffield Utd 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Brentford Brentford
L Manchester City 2–0
W Grimsby 0–5
D Aston Villa 1–1
W Bournemouth 0–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 16%

Playing profile

Birmingham Birmingham
Attack
47
Defence
81
Form
71
Brentford Brentford
Attack
51
Defence
51
Form
54
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Birmingham vs Brentford?
The model gives Birmingham a 39% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 30% for an Brentford win.
How many goals are expected in Birmingham vs Brentford?
Expected goals: Birmingham 2.5, Brentford 1.3 (total 3.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Birmingham vs Brentford?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.8%.