✓Model correct — prediction Birmingham
J. Stansfield
(ast. I. Osman)
10'
I. Osman
16'
25'
A. Hughes
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Birmingham a 51% win probability (draw 29%, Preston 19%). The final result was Birmingham 2–1 Preston. In 1 previous meetings, Birmingham have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Preston.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
14
5
Shots on target
6
1.95
Actual xG
2.25
4
Saves
3
50%
Possession
50%
3
Corners
3
10
Tackles
15
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽J. Stansfield
· ast. I. Osman
10'
⚽I. Osman
16'
25'
A. Hughes⚽
I. Osman
/ D. Gray
37'
45'+2
A. Vukcevic
E. Laird
/ B. Osayi-Samuel
65'
65'
A. Moran
/
B. Potts
72'
A. Moran
J. Stansfield
/ J. E. Solis Romero
72'
73'
D. Jebbison
/
M. Osmajic
73'
T. Small
/
P. Valentin
78'
R. Brady
/
A. Vukcevic
84'
M. Smith
/
L. Dobbin
Pre-match prediction
51.06%
Birmingham ←
29.33%
X
19.61%
Preston
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Birmingham)
51.06%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.34
1.95
+0.62
0.72
2.25
+1.54
xG dominance was balanced (1.95 – 2.25).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
G
31
D
4
Christoph Klarer
D
Christoph Klarer
D
5
Phil Neumann
D
Phil Neumann
D
2
Ethan Laird
65'
D
Ethan Laird
65'
D
8
Seung Ho Paik
M
Seung Ho Paik
M
24
Tomoki Iwata
M
Tomoki Iwata
M
17
Ibrahim Osman
1 ⚽
1 👟
37'
M
Ibrahim Osman
1 ⚽
1 👟
37'
M
28
Jay Stansfield
1 ⚽
72'
M
Jay Stansfield
1 ⚽
72'
M
23
Carlos Vicente
M
Carlos Vicente
M
29
August Priske
F
August Priske
F
Bench
26
Bright Osayi-Samuel
25'
D
Bright Osayi-Samuel
25'
D
10
Demarai Gray
53'
F
Demarai Gray
53'
F
14
Jhon Solís
18'
M
Jhon Solís
18'
M
33
M. Ducksch
F
16
Patrick Roberts
M
Patrick Roberts
M
1
Daniel Iversen
G
Daniel Iversen
G
16
Andrew Hughes
1 ⚽
D
Andrew Hughes
1 ⚽
D
6
Liam Lindsay
D
Liam Lindsay
D
42
Odeluga Offiah
D
Odeluga Offiah
D
3
Andrija Vukčević
78'
M
Andrija Vukčević
78'
M
21
Alfie Devine
M
Alfie Devine
M
15
Jordan Thompson
M
Jordan Thompson
M
44
B. Potts
65'
M
2
Pol Valentín
73'
M
Pol Valentín
73'
M
17
Lewis Dobbin
84'
F
Lewis Dobbin
84'
F
28
Milutin Osmajić
73'
F
Milutin Osmajić
73'
F
Bench
23
Andrew Moran
25'
M
Andrew Moran
25'
M
9
D. Jebbison
17'
F
14
Jordan Storey
D
Jordan Storey
D
26
T. Small
17'
D
Best on the pitch
Andrew Hughes
D · Preston
8.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 35 pass
Ibrahim Osman
M · Birmingham
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 6 pass
Ethan Laird
D · Birmingham
7.70
1 shots
· 24 pass
Jay Stansfield
M · Birmingham
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 12 pass
Seung Ho Paik
M · Birmingham
7.20
· 27 pass
Jordan Thompson
M · Preston
7.20
· 42 pass
Birmingham — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 32 | 8% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 44 | 26% | 1 | — | — | |
| Christoph Klarer | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Phil Neumann | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Ethan Laird | D | 65 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Seung Ho Paik | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Tomoki Iwata | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Ibrahim Osman | M | 37 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Jay Stansfield | M | 72 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 12 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Vicente | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 14% | — | — | — |
| August Priske | F | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Bright Osayi-Samuel | D | 25 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Demarai Gray | F | 53 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Jhon Solís | M | 18 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
Preston — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Iversen | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Andrew Hughes | D | 90 | 8.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 35 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Liam Lindsay | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Odeluga Offiah | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Andrija Vukčević | M | 78 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Alfie Devine | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 40 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Jordan Thompson | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Potts | M | 65 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Pol Valentín | M | 73 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Lewis Dobbin | F | 84 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 13 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Milutin Osmajić | F | 73 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Andrew Moran | M | 25 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 6% | 3 | 1 | — |
| D. Jebbison | F | 17 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| T. Small | D | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Birmingham vs Preston?
The final score was Birmingham 2–1 Preston.
What did the model predict before Birmingham vs Preston?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Birmingham win, 29% to a draw, and 19% to an Preston win.