✓Model correct — prediction Birmingham
J. Stansfield
(ast. I. Osman)
10'
I. Osman
16'
25'
A. Hughes
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Birmingham a 51% win probability (draw 29%, Preston 19%). The final result was Birmingham 2–1 Preston. In 1 previous meetings, Birmingham have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Preston.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
14
5
Shots on target
6
1.95
Actual xG
2.25
4
Saves
3
50%
Possession
50%
3
Corners
3
10
Tackles
15
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽J. Stansfield
· ast. I. Osman
10'
⚽I. Osman
16'
25'
A. Hughes⚽
I. Osman
/ D. Gray
37'
45'+2
A. Vukcevic
E. Laird
/ B. Osayi-Samuel
65'
65'
A. Moran
/
B. Potts
72'
A. Moran
J. Stansfield
/ J. E. Solis Romero
72'
73'
D. Jebbison
/
M. Osmajic
73'
T. Small
/
P. Valentin
78'
R. Brady
/
A. Vukcevic
84'
M. Smith
/
L. Dobbin
Pre-match prediction
51.06%
Birmingham ←
29.33%
X
19.61%
Preston
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Birmingham)
51.06%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.34
1.95
+0.62
0.72
2.25
+1.54
xG dominance was balanced (1.95 – 2.25).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
G
31
D
4
C. Klarer
D
C. Klarer
D
5
P. Neumann
D
2
E. Laird
65'
D
8
Seung Ho Paik
M
Seung Ho Paik
M
24
T. Iwata
M
17
Ibrahim Osman
1 ⚽
1 👟
37'
M
Ibrahim Osman
1 ⚽
1 👟
37'
M
28
Jay Stansfield
1 ⚽
72'
M
23
Carlos Vicente
M
Carlos Vicente
M
29
A. Priske
F
Bench
26
B. Osayi-Samuel
25'
D
10
D. Gray
53'
F
14
J. E. Solis Romero
18'
M
33
M. Ducksch
F
16
P. Roberts
M
1
D. Iversen
G
16
A. Hughes
1 ⚽
D
6
L. Lindsay
D
L. Lindsay
D
42
O. Offiah
D
3
A. Vukcevic
78'
M
21
A. Devine
M
15
J. Thompson
M
44
B. Potts
65'
M
2
P. Valentin
73'
M
17
L. Dobbin
84'
F
L. Dobbin
84'
F
28
Milutin Osmajić
73'
F
Bench
23
Andrew Moran
25'
M
Andrew Moran
25'
M
9
D. Jebbison
17'
F
14
J. Storey
D
J. Storey
D
26
T. Small
17'
D
Best on the pitch
A. Hughes
D · Preston
8.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 35 pass
Ibrahim Osman
M · Birmingham
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 6 pass
E. Laird
D · Birmingham
7.70
1 shots
· 24 pass
Jay Stansfield
M · Birmingham
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 12 pass
Seung Ho Paik
M · Birmingham
7.20
· 27 pass
J. Thompson
M · Preston
7.20
· 42 pass
Birmingham — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 32 | 8% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 44 | 26% | 1 | — | — | |
| C. Klarer | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 27% | — | — | — |
| P. Neumann | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Laird | D | 65 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Seung Ho Paik | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Iwata | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Ibrahim Osman | M | 37 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Jay Stansfield | M | 72 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 12 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Vicente | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 14% | — | — | — |
| A. Priske | F | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 6% | — | — | — |
| B. Osayi-Samuel | D | 25 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| D. Gray | F | 53 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| J. E. Solis Romero | M | 18 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
Preston — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Iversen | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 12% | — | — | — |
| A. Hughes | D | 90 | 8.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 35 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Lindsay | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Offiah | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Vukcevic | M | 78 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Devine | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 40 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Thompson | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Potts | M | 65 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| P. Valentin | M | 73 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Dobbin | F | 84 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 13 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Milutin Osmajić | F | 73 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Andrew Moran | M | 25 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 6% | 3 | 1 | — |
| D. Jebbison | F | 17 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| T. Small | D | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Birmingham vs Preston?
The final score was Birmingham 2–1 Preston.
What did the model predict before Birmingham vs Preston?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Birmingham win, 29% to a draw, and 19% to an Preston win.