Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 5
May 20, 2026 02:30
✗Model wrong — prediction Boca Juniors, result Draw
Miguel Merentiel
(ast. L. Paredes)
15'
54'
(ast. Kaiki)
Fagner
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Boca Juniors a 68% win probability (draw 19%, Cruzeiro 11%). The final result was Boca Juniors 1–1 Cruzeiro. In 1 previous meetings, Boca Juniors have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Cruzeiro.
Match statistics
22
Total shots
6
10
Shots on target
3
2.32
Actual xG
0.77
2
Saves
9
53%
Possession
47%
9
Corners
1
9
Tackles
17
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽Miguel Merentiel
· ast. L. Paredes
15'
47'
Fagner
54'
ast. Kaiki ·
Fagner⚽
63'
L. Sinisterra
/
Bruno Rodrigues
68'
Gerson
T. Belmonte
/ E. Zeballos
72'
A. Costa
73'
75'
Kaua Moraes
/
Fagner
81'
N. Villarreal
/
Kaio Jorge
81'
Joao Marcelo
/
Matheus Pereira
E. Zeballos
83'
M. Gimenez
/ Angel Romero
85'
89'
90'+7
N. Villarreal
Pre-match prediction
68.55%
Boca
19.81%
X ←
11.64%
Cruzeiro
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
19.81%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.89
2.32
+0.43
0.46
0.77
+0.31
Boca Juniors dominated by xG (2.32 vs 0.77).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
12
Leandro Brey
G
Leandro Brey
G
3
L. Blanco
D
L. Blanco
D
32
Ayrton Costa
D
Ayrton Costa
D
2
Lautaro Di Lollo
D
Lautaro Di Lollo
D
27
Malcom Braida
D
Malcom Braida
D
36
Tomás Aranda
M
Tomás Aranda
M
18
Milton Delgado
M
Milton Delgado
M
5
L. Paredes
1 👟
M
L. Paredes
1 👟
M
30
Tomás Belmonte
72'
M
Tomás Belmonte
72'
M
16
M. Merentiel
1 ⚽
F
M. Merentiel
1 ⚽
F
9
Milton Giménez
85'
F
Milton Giménez
85'
F
Bench
20
Alan Velasco
M
Alan Velasco
M
21
Ander Herrera
M
Ander Herrera
M
29
Ángel Romero
14'
F
Ángel Romero
14'
F
7
Exequiel Zeballos
27'
F
Exequiel Zeballos
27'
F
24
J. Barinaga
D
J. Barinaga
D
13
J. García
G
J. García
G
22
K. Zenón
M
K. Zenón
M
11
Lucas Janson
F
Lucas Janson
F
26
Marco Pellegrino
D
Marco Pellegrino
D
23
M. Weigandt
D
M. Weigandt
D
4
Nicolás Figal
D
Nicolás Figal
D
15
Williams Alarcón
M
Williams Alarcón
M
81
Otávio Costa
G
Otávio Costa
G
6
Kaiki
1 👟
D
Kaiki
1 👟
D
34
Jonathan
D
Jonathan
D
15
Fabrício Bruno
D
Fabrício Bruno
D
23
Fágner
1 ⚽
75'
D
Fágner
1 ⚽
75'
D
11
Gerson
68'
M
Gerson
68'
M
29
L. Romero
M
L. Romero
M
88
Christian
M
Christian
M
10
Matheus Pereira
81'
M
Matheus Pereira
81'
M
9
Bruno Rodrigues
63'
M
Bruno Rodrigues
63'
M
19
Kaio Jorge
81'
F
Kaio Jorge
81'
F
Bench
91
Francisco da Costa
F
Francisco da Costa
F
77
Japa
M
Japa
M
43
João Marcelo
18'
D
João Marcelo
18'
D
2
Kauã Moraes
24'
D
Kauã Moraes
24'
D
70
Kenji
F
Kenji
F
16
Lucas Silva
M
Lucas Silva
M
17
Luis Sinisterra
36'
F
Luis Sinisterra
36'
F
25
L. Villalba
D
L. Villalba
D
7
Marquinhos
F
Marquinhos
F
31
Matheus Cunha
G
Matheus Cunha
G
22
Néiser Villarreal
18'
M
Néiser Villarreal
18'
M
94
Wanderson
F
Wanderson
F
Best on the pitch
L. Paredes
M · Boca
8.90
1 👟
2 shots
· 77 pass
Otávio Costa
G · Cruzeiro
8.60
· 24 pass
Fabrício Bruno
D · Cruzeiro
7.90
· 35 pass
M. Merentiel
F · Boca
7.60
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 23 pass
Tomás Aranda
M · Boca
7.50
5 shots
· 32 pass
Milton Giménez
F · Boca
7.30
2 shots
· 15 pass
Boca Juniors — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Brey | G | 99 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 18 | 11% | — | — | — |
| L. Blanco | D | 99 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Costa | D | 99 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 35 | 32% | — | 1 | — |
| Lautaro Di Lollo | D | 99 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| Malcom Braida | D | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 28 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Tomás Aranda | M | 99 | 7.50 | — | — | 5 | 32 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Milton Delgado | M | 99 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Paredes | M | 99 | 8.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 77 | 65% | — | — | — |
| Tomás Belmonte | M | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 8% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Merentiel | F | 99 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 4 | 23 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Milton Giménez | F | 85 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Ángel Romero | F | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Exequiel Zeballos | F | 27 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
Cruzeiro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otávio Costa | G | 99 | 8.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Kaiki | D | 99 | 6.50 | — | 1 | — | 22 | 15% | 4 | — | — |
| Jonathan | D | 99 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 99 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| Fágner | D | 75 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 26 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gerson | M | 68 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 57 | 50% | — | — | 1 |
| L. Romero | M | 99 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 51 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| Christian | M | 99 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 14% | 4 | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Rodrigues | M | 63 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| João Marcelo | D | 18 | 6.60 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | 24 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Sinisterra | F | 36 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 8 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Néiser Villarreal | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Boca Juniors vs Cruzeiro?
The final score was Boca Juniors 1–1 Cruzeiro.
What did the model predict before Boca Juniors vs Cruzeiro?
The model assigned 68% probability to a Boca Juniors win, 19% to a draw, and 11% to an Cruzeiro win.