Copa Sudamericana
· Round of 16
August 12, 2026 00:00
S. Ascacibar
(ast. S. Villa)
49'
M. Delgado
(ast. S. Villa)
51'
L. Flores
(ast. Miguel Merentiel)
62'
5'
P. Rios
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Boca Juniors a 42% win probability (draw 29%, Deportivo Recoleta 28%). The final result was Boca Juniors 3–1 Deportivo Recoleta. In 1 previous meetings, Boca Juniors have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Deportivo Recoleta.
Match statistics
30
Total shots
4
8
Shots on target
3
4.39
Actual xG
0.45
2
Saves
5
77%
Possession
23%
8
Corners
1
16
Tackles
20
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
2
Match Events
5'
P. Rios⚽
33'
A. Franco
45'+2
W. Baez
L. Blanco
/ S. Villa
46'
46'
O. Barreto
/
P. Charpentier
46'
J. Espinola
/
A. Franco
⚽S. Ascacibar
· ast. S. Villa
49'
⚽M. Delgado
· ast. S. Villa
51'
58'
F. Galeano
/
R. Dominguez
A. Costa
59'
60'
D. Mosquera
⚽L. Flores
· ast. Miguel Merentiel
62'
69'
D. Mosquera
69'
D. Mosquera
A. Costa
/ M. Pellegrino
72'
72'
L. Monzon
/
A. Gonzalez
L. Flores
/ K. Zenon
82'
84'
H. Lopez
/
P. Rios
S. Ascacibar
/ Angel Romero
89'
Pre-match prediction
42.17%
Boca ←
29.49%
X
28.34%
Deportivo
we assigned to the actual result (Boca Juniors)
42.17%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.05
4.39
+2.34
0.78
0.45
-0.33
Boca Juniors dominated by xG (4.39 vs 0.45).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Álvaro Montero
G
Álvaro Montero
G
3
L. Blanco
45'
D
L. Blanco
45'
D
32
Ayrton Costa
72'
D
Ayrton Costa
72'
D
2
Lautaro Di Lollo
D
Lautaro Di Lollo
D
17
Leandro Lozano
D
Leandro Lozano
D
25
Santiago Ascacíbar
1 ⚽
89'
M
Santiago Ascacíbar
1 ⚽
89'
M
5
L. Paredes
M
L. Paredes
M
18
Milton Delgado
1 ⚽
M
Milton Delgado
1 ⚽
M
10
Tomás Aranda
F
Tomás Aranda
F
16
M. Merentiel
1 👟
F
M. Merentiel
1 👟
F
19
Leonel Flores
1 ⚽
82'
F
Leonel Flores
1 ⚽
82'
F
Bench
20
Alan Velasco
M
Alan Velasco
M
11
Ángel Romero
5'
F
Ángel Romero
5'
F
7
Carlos Palacios
F
Carlos Palacios
F
23
C. Rey
M
C. Rey
M
24
Dylan Gorosito
D
Dylan Gorosito
D
21
K. Zenón
12'
M
K. Zenón
12'
M
12
Leandro Brey
G
Leandro Brey
G
27
Malcom Braida
M
Malcom Braida
M
26
Marco Pellegrino
22'
D
Marco Pellegrino
22'
D
4
Nicolás Figal
D
Nicolás Figal
D
22
S. Villa
2 👟
49'
F
S. Villa
2 👟
49'
F
8
Tomás Belmonte
M
Tomás Belmonte
M
12
Nelson Ferreira
G
25
D. Mosquera
69'
D
D. Mosquera
69'
D
3
Luis Cardozo
D
Luis Cardozo
D
5
Nicolás Marotta
D
Nicolás Marotta
D
15
Blas Medina
D
18
Pedro Rios
1 ⚽
84'
M
Pedro Rios
1 ⚽
84'
M
7
R. Domínguez
57'
M
R. Domínguez
57'
M
38
J. Franco
45'
M
J. Franco
45'
M
17
W. Báez
47'
M
W. Báez
47'
M
33
Aldo Gonzalez
72'
F
30
Paul Charpentier
45'
F
Paul Charpentier
45'
F
Bench
10
Alejandro Silva
M
Alejandro Silva
M
1
Andrés Marsengo
G
Andrés Marsengo
G
21
Claudio Garay
M
8
Fernando Galeano
37'
M
19
H. López
10'
M
H. López
10'
M
6
Jose Espinola
49'
D
Jose Espinola
49'
D
37
Juan Falcon
F
Juan Falcon
F
11
Kevin Parzajuk
F
Kevin Parzajuk
F
32
Lucas Monzon
22'
D
Lucas Monzon
22'
D
4
Marcos Pereira
D
22
Orlín Barreto
49'
M
Orlín Barreto
49'
M
9
Richard Ortiz
F
Best on the pitch
Leonel Flores
F · Boca
10.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 64 pass
L. Paredes
M · Boca
8.90
2 shots
· 156 pass
Milton Delgado
M · Boca
8.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 122 pass
S. Villa
F · Boca
8.90
2 👟
2 shots
· 22 pass
Pedro Rios
M · Deportivo
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 15 pass
Santiago Ascacíbar
M · Boca
7.70
1 ⚽
6 shots
· 34 pass
Boca Juniors — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Montero | G | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| L. Blanco | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Costa | D | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 53 | 48% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Lautaro Di Lollo | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 58 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Leandro Lozano | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 46% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Ascacíbar | M | 89 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 6 | 34 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Paredes | M | 94 | 8.90 | — | — | 2 | 156 | 145% | 4 | — | — |
| Milton Delgado | M | 94 | 8.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 122 | 114% | 3 | — | — |
| Tomás Aranda | F | 94 | 7.70 | — | — | 5 | 86 | 77% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Merentiel | F | 94 | 6.20 | — | 1 | 4 | 27 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Leonel Flores | F | 82 | 10.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 64 | 59% | — | — | — |
| Ángel Romero | F | 5 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Zenón | M | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Marco Pellegrino | D | 22 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| S. Villa | F | 49 | 8.90 | — | 2 | 2 | 22 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
Deportivo Recoleta — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Ferreira | G | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 19% | — | — | — |
| D. Mosquera | D | 69 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 18 | 13% | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Luis Cardozo | D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Marotta | D | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Blas Medina | D | 94 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 13 | 6% | 3 | — | — |
| Pedro Rios | M | 84 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 15 | 13% | 3 | — | — |
| R. Domínguez | M | 57 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Franco | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | 1 | 1 | — |
| W. Báez | M | 47 | 5.60 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 5% | 1 | — | 1 |
| Aldo Gonzalez | F | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Paul Charpentier | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Fernando Galeano | M | 37 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 5% | — | — | — |
| H. López | M | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Jose Espinola | D | 49 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Monzon | D | 22 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| Orlín Barreto | M | 49 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta?
The final score was Boca Juniors 3–1 Deportivo Recoleta.
What did the model predict before Boca Juniors vs Deportivo Recoleta?
The model assigned 42% probability to a Boca Juniors win, 29% to a draw, and 28% to an Deportivo Recoleta win.