Copa Sudamericana
· Round of 32
July 24, 2026 02:30
✓Model correct — prediction Boca Juniors
Miguel Merentiel
(ast. L. Paredes)
44'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Boca Juniors a 56% win probability (draw 23%, O'Higgins 19%). The final result was Boca Juniors 1–0 O'Higgins.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
9
2
Shots on target
3
1.32
Actual xG
0.55
3
Saves
1
61%
Possession
39%
7
Corners
3
11
Tackles
23
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽Miguel Merentiel
· ast. L. Paredes
44'
T. Aranda
/ S. Ascacibar
60'
62'
F. Faundez
71'
B. Yanez
/
B. Rabello
71'
T. Aviles
/
J. Leiva
D. Gorosito
/ M. Braida
78'
L. Flores
/ A. Velasco
78'
79'
M. Maturana
/
Martin Sarrafiore
79'
N. Garrido
/
A. Robledo
82'
T. Vecino
/
A. Castillo
S. Villa
/ K. Zenon
90'
Pre-match prediction
56.77%
Boca ←
23.52%
X
19.71%
O'Higgins
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Boca Juniors)
56.77%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.04
1.32
-0.72
0.58
0.55
-0.03
Boca Juniors dominated by xG (1.32 vs 0.55).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Álvaro Montero
G
Álvaro Montero
G
3
Lautaro Blanco
D
Lautaro Blanco
D
32
Ayrton Costa
D
Ayrton Costa
D
4
Nicolás Figal
D
Nicolás Figal
D
24
Dylan Gorosito
78'
D
Dylan Gorosito
78'
D
10
Tomás Aranda
60'
M
Tomás Aranda
60'
M
5
L. Paredes
1 👟
M
L. Paredes
1 👟
M
18
Milton Delgado
M
Milton Delgado
M
22
Sebastián Villa
F
Sebastián Villa
F
16
Miguel Merentiel
1 ⚽
F
Miguel Merentiel
1 ⚽
F
19
Leonel Flores
78'
F
Leonel Flores
78'
F
Bench
20
Alan Velasco
16'
M
Alan Velasco
16'
M
11
Ángel Romero
F
Ángel Romero
F
23
Camilo Rey Domenech
M
Camilo Rey Domenech
M
37
Gonzalo Gelini
F
Gonzalo Gelini
F
13
Javier García
G
Javier García
G
21
Kevin Zenón
4'
M
Kevin Zenón
4'
M
2
Lautaro Di Lollo
D
Lautaro Di Lollo
D
12
Leandro Brey
G
Leandro Brey
G
27
Malcom Braida
16'
M
Malcom Braida
16'
M
26
Marco Pellegrino
D
Marco Pellegrino
D
25
Santiago Ascacíbar
34'
M
Santiago Ascacíbar
34'
M
15
Williams Alarcón
M
Williams Alarcón
M
31
O. Carabalí
G
O. Carabalí
G
6
Luis Pavez Muñoz
D
Luis Pavez Muñoz
D
33
Miguel Brizuela
D
Miguel Brizuela
D
22
Alan Robledo
79'
D
Alan Robledo
79'
D
3
Felipe Faúndez
D
Felipe Faúndez
D
11
Juan Leiva
70'
M
Juan Leiva
70'
M
8
F. Ogaz
M
F. Ogaz
M
7
Martín Sarrafiore
79'
M
Martín Sarrafiore
79'
M
10
Bryan Rabello
70'
M
Bryan Rabello
70'
M
24
F. González
M
F. González
M
9
Arnaldo Castillo
82'
F
Arnaldo Castillo
82'
F
Bench
29
B. Yáñez
24'
F
B. Yáñez
24'
F
2
Cristian Morales
D
Cristian Morales
D
23
Diego Carreño
G
Diego Carreño
G
18
E. Moreira
F
E. Moreira
F
1
Jorge Peña
G
Jorge Peña
G
27
José Movillo
D
José Movillo
D
20
L. Díaz
D
L. Díaz
D
14
M. Maturana
15'
M
M. Maturana
15'
M
21
N. Garrido
15'
D
N. Garrido
15'
D
26
R. Godoy
F
R. Godoy
F
17
T. Avilés
24'
D
T. Avilés
24'
D
32
T. Vecino
12'
F
T. Vecino
12'
F
Best on the pitch
Alan Robledo
D · O'Higgins
8.00
2 shots
· 26 pass
F. Ogaz
M · O'Higgins
7.90
· 43 pass
Miguel Merentiel
F · Boca
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 28 pass
Lautaro Blanco
D · Boca
7.60
· 41 pass
L. Paredes
M · Boca
7.50
1 👟
3 shots
· 88 pass
Ayrton Costa
D · Boca
7.20
· 52 pass
Boca Juniors — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Montero | G | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Lautaro Blanco | D | 94 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 41 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| Ayrton Costa | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 52 | 51% | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Figal | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 72 | 62% | — | — | — |
| Dylan Gorosito | D | 78 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 39 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Tomás Aranda | M | 60 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 47 | 40% | — | — | — |
| L. Paredes | M | 94 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 3 | 88 | 78% | 1 | — | — |
| Milton Delgado | M | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 50% | 2 | — | — |
| Sebastián Villa | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 37 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Miguel Merentiel | F | 94 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 28 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Leonel Flores | F | 78 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Alan Velasco | M | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Kevin Zenón | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Malcom Braida | M | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Ascacíbar | M | 34 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 18 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
O'Higgins — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Carabalí | G | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Luis Pavez Muñoz | D | 94 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Miguel Brizuela | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Alan Robledo | D | 79 | 8.00 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Felipe Faúndez | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 10% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Juan Leiva | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 43 | 37% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Ogaz | M | 94 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 34% | 6 | — | — |
| Martín Sarrafiore | M | 79 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 33 | 23% | 3 | — | — |
| Bryan Rabello | M | 70 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| F. González | M | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Arnaldo Castillo | F | 82 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 9% | — | — | — |
| B. Yáñez | F | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Maturana | M | 15 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| N. Garrido | D | 15 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Avilés | D | 24 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Vecino | F | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Boca Juniors vs O'Higgins?
The final score was Boca Juniors 1–0 O'Higgins.
What did the model predict before Boca Juniors vs O'Higgins?
The model assigned 56% probability to a Boca Juniors win, 23% to a draw, and 19% to an O'Higgins win.